Elliott Wave Gold Technical Analysis by Lara

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th September, 2014

by Lara · September 18th, 2014 · Gold · 2 Comments

Since last analysis price has moved sideways to complete a small green candlestick for Thursday’s session (I had expected a red candlestick). The Elliott wave count remains mostly the same and the target is now calculated at three wave degrees.

Summary: The structure is incomplete. I expect more downwards movement. The new target for it to end is 1,211 to 1,206 and should be met in 24 hours.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Extend the triangle trend lines of primary wave 4 outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may be the point in time at which primary wave 5 ends. This does not always work, but it works often enough to look out for. It is a rough guideline only and not definitive. A trend line placed from the end of primary wave 4 to the target of primary wave 5 at this point in time shows primary wave 5 would take a total 26 weeks to reach that point, and that is what I will expect. Primary wave 4 has just begun its 10th week.

The black (B)-(D) trend line is clearly breached. I have confidence that primary wave 5 has begun. The black (B)-(D) trend line is now also clearly breached on the weekly chart. This is significant.

At 956.97 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 is $12.54 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave 1, and equality between primary waves 5 and 1 would give a perfect Elliott relationship for this downwards movement.

However, when triangles take their time and move close to the apex of the triangle, as primary wave 4 has (looking at this on a weekly chart is clearer) the movement following the triangle is often shorter and weaker than expected. If the target at 956.97 is wrong it may be too low. In the first instance I expect it is extremely likely that primary wave 5 will move at least below the end of primary wave 3 at 1,180.40 to avoid a truncation. When intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within primary wave 5 are complete I will recalculate the target at intermediate degree because this would have a higher accuracy. I cannot do that yet; I can only calculate it at primary degree.

Minor wave 3 has now passed 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. If minor wave 3 ends within the new target zone it may still exhibit an adequate Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. I consider any variation less than 10% to be adequate.

Movement comfortably below 1,180.84 would invalidate the alternate daily wave count below and provide further confidence in this main wave count.

When minor wave 3 is over (I expect this to be over within 24 hours, before next analysis) I will draw a Fibonacci retracement along its entire length and expect minor wave 4 to correct up to the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratio, so that there is alternation with the deep correction of minor wave 2. I expect this tendency to alternation may be stronger than a tendency for corrections following fifth wave extensions to reach up to the end of the second wave within the extended fifth wave.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

Subminuette wave v is still incomplete, must subdivide as a five wave structure, and is unfolding as an impulse. I have adjusted the analysis of micro wave 2 within it because sideways movement for Thursday looks so clear as its counterpart fourth wave correction. This expects just one final short push down for micro wave 5 to complete the entire structure of minor wave 3 at all wave degrees.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves 1 and 3. It is more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between micro wave 5 and either of 3 or 1. At 1,211 micro wave 5 would reach 1.618 the length of micro wave 1.

At 1,210 subminuette wave v would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. Because there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i I would expect it is very likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio for subminuette wave v to either of i or iii.

At 1,206 minuette wave (v) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (iii). There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii) so I would again expect it is very likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (i) or (iii).

This gives a $5 target zone calculated at three wave degrees. The upper edge of the zone is calculated at the lowest wave degree, and the lower edge of the zone is calculated at the highest wave degree. I favour the upper edge of the zone for this reason.

Draw a channel about minuette wave (v) using Elliott’s second technique: draw the first trend line from the highs of subminuette waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy on the low of subminuette wave iii. Look for the downwards edge of this channel to provide support. This may be where this downwards movement for minor wave 3 ends.

Within subminuette wave v micro wave 4 may not move into micro wave 1 price territory above 1,231.74. *edit: this price point was previously given incorrectly as 1,234.74

When subminuette wave v may be seen as a completed five wave impulse then subsequent movement above 1,234.74 would provide price confirmation that minor wave 3 in its entirety is over. At that stage also movement above the upper edge of the channel would provide trend channel confirmation of a trend change at minor degree also.

Alternate Wave Count

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly Alternate 2014

I would judge this wave count to have a very low probability only because of proportion between primary waves 2 and 4. The main wave count sees them almost exactly of the same duration, with primary wave 2 lasting 53 weeks and primary wave 4 lasting 54 weeks. This alternate would see primary wave 4 as much longer in duration than primary wave 2. It is the proportion between second and fourth waves within an impulse which gives the wave count what is called the “right look”. This alternate would still have the right look, but it would not look as good as the main wave count.

If intermediate wave (D) is continuing it can only be as a double zigzag. For a contracting triangle intermediate wave (D) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (B) below 1,180.84. For a barrier triangle intermediate wave (D) should end about the same level as intermediate wave (B), as long as the (B)-(D) trend line is essentially flat. In practice this means that intermediate wave (D) could end slightly below 1,180.84 and the wave count would remain valid. Unfortunately, this invalidation point is not black and white.

If intermediate wave (D) is a double zigzag, then intermediate wave (C) must be seen as a single zigzag because only one of the five subwaves of a triangle may be a double.

It is possible to see intermediate wave (C) as a zigzag, but to do so a rather obvious triangle must be ignored after the end of minor wave A. The main wave count sees a triangle in that position. I think this reduces the probability of this alternate.

Within intermediate wave (C) the subdivision within minuette wave (i) of minute wave iii of minor wave C is problematic. On the hourly chart this upwards wave subdivides as a double zigzag and does not fit well at all as a five wave structure. This is another reason why I would prefer a wave count which sees a triangle in that position because the subdivisions of those waves fit a triangle perfectly. This further reduces the probability of this alternate.

This alternate wave count does not diverge from the main wave count at this stage, and will not diverge for another one or two weeks. The main wave count expects downwards movement to complete minor wave 3 and this alternate expects downwards movement to complete minute wave c. Thereafter, the main wave count would expect upwards movement for minor wave 4 and this alternate wave count would expect upwards movement for intermediate wave (E). If at that stage price moves above 1,280.35 for that upwards movement then the main wave count would be invalidated and this alternate confirmed.

This analysis is published about 04:29 p.m. EST.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Video – 18th September, 2014

by Lara · September 18th, 2014 · Gold · No Comments

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US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th September, 2014

by Lara · September 18th, 2014 · US Oil · No Comments

Price continued lower as expected, a little. The target of this third wave to end was 85.88. It has likely ended at 90.43, $4.55 short of the target.

Summary: In the short term I expect a final fifth wave down to complete minor wave 1. The target is 84.65 which may be met in about 3 – 4 weeks time. The mid – long term target remains at 74.53. This target may be months away.

Click on charts to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014

This wave count sees US Oil as still in the early stages of a third wave down at intermediate degree.

The target for intermediate wave (3) remains at 74.53 where it would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (1) lasted a Fibonacci 13 weeks and intermediate wave (2) lasted 28 weeks. So far within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 1 has lasted 14 weeks and it is still incomplete. It looks like intermediate wave (3) will be much longer in duration than intermediate wave (1) and maybe intermediate wave (2) as well. If intermediate wave (3) exhibits a Fibonacci duration it may be either or 34 or 55 weeks. That would see it end in another 20 or 41 weeks. However, this is a very rough guideline only. Intermediate wave (1) may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio in terms of duration to intermediate wave (1) as these relationships in terms of duration are not reliable for US Oil.

I have drawn a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Minor wave 1 downwards may end when price finds support at the lower edge of this channel.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1, and because this is a second wave correction within a third wave at intermediate degree minor wave 2 may be more brief and shallow than second waves are normally. I would not expect minor wave 2 to breach the upper edge of this base channel because second waves of lower degrees do not normally breach base channels drawn about first and second waves one or more degrees higher.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 107.54.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

The structure of minor wave 1 is most likely still incomplete.

Within minor wave 1 so far minute wave iii is just 0.52 short of 6.854 the length of minute wave i. We may not see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i, so the target for minor wave 1 down is now best calculated at minuette degree within minute wave v. But that cannot be done until close to the end of this movement.

At 88.48 minute wave v would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave iii. This target may be met within 3 – 4 weeks.

This wave count expects that minute wave iv is over. If it is over here there is perfect alternation between minute waves ii and iv: minute wave ii is a deep 92% expanded flat correction and minute wave iv is a very shallow 28% zigzag. Minute wave ii lasted 4 days and minute wave iv lasted 3 days, and this close proportion gives the wave count the right look.

I have drawn a best fit channel about minor wave 1. I would expect minute wave v to find support at the lower edge. Along the way down upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper edge. If price breaches the upper edge of the channel before minute wave v downwards is complete then this wave count would reduce in probability.

Within minute wave v no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 95.18.

If this wave count is breached by upwards movement it is possible that minute wave iv is continuing further as a double zigzag. Alternatively, my wave count within minor wave 1 is wrong and upwards movement could be the start of minor wave 2.

There are too many problems with the alternate I had in last analysis so I will not publish it at this stage because the probability of it is so low. It too would expect downwards movement at this stage, so there is no divergence.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Video – 17th September, 2014

by Lara · September 17th, 2014 · Gold · No Comments

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th September, 2014

by Lara · September 17th, 2014 · Gold · 3 Comments

Downwards movement continues as expected. The target has been passed. The Elliott wave count remains the same.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Video – 16th September, 2014

by Lara · September 16th, 2014 · Gold · 2 Comments

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th September, 2014

by Lara · September 16th, 2014 · Gold · 3 Comments

Another green candlestick was allowed for in the wave count, and upwards movement remains just below the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio on the main hourly Elliott wave chart.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Video – 15th September, 2014

by Lara · September 15th, 2014 · Gold · 2 Comments

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th September, 2014

by Lara · September 15th, 2014 · Gold · No Comments

Again, downwards movement continued. With Monday’s session closing on a green candlestick, the wave count is slightly changed.

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GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th September, 2014

by Lara · September 14th, 2014 · GDX · No Comments

As expected GDX has moved lower. This Elliott wave count looks correct so far. We have some price confirmation with a new low below 25.59.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

I have played with how to best draw a channel about this downwards movement, which does not fit perfectly into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques but does fit best if his first technique is used: draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2).

GDX daily 2013

Intermediate wave (5) must subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far the first five down for minor wave 1 is incomplete. If minor wave 1 completes as a five wave impulse then intermediate wave (5) must be unfolding as an impulse, because an ending diagonal requires all the subwaves to be zigzags.

At 22.32 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.6489 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i, and subminuette wave v is 0.13 longer than equality with subminuette wave iii.

I am not sure if minuette wave (iv) is complete or not; if not, minuette wave (iv) could move price further sideways and higher but may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 25.75. Minuette wave (ii) lasted four days and was a relatively deep 55% zigzag. Minuette wave (iv) may be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

Minute wave ii was a very deep expanded flat. When minute wave iv arrives I would expect it to most likely be a very shallow correction of minute wave iii. I also expect minute wave iv may be a very shallow zigzag, triangle or combination; should be a sideways movement; would most likely last up to 21 days; and may be more brief than this if it is a zigzag as they do tend to be briefer structures.

At this stage I would expect the target at 22.32 to be about one or two weeks away.

At 14.15 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This target is likely to be several weeks away.

*Note: My last calculation for this target was wrong.

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SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th September, 2014

by Lara · September 14th, 2014 · Silver, Silver Historical · No Comments

At this stage I expect Silver should end this first wave down next week. The short term target is 18.335. Thereafter, a second wave correction should unfold which may be very deep.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2014

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief (more common), or sometimes they are a very long extension. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks, and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks. So far it has lasted 9 weeks and may yet continue towards the target for a further 12 or 25 weeks, if it exhibits a Fibonacci duration. However, please note, Silver does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci durations nor do its waves reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios to each other in terms of duration. This expectation of another 12 or 25 weeks can only be a rough guideline.

Silver daily 2014

For July, August and September the strongest volume is on down days. This traditional technical analysis supports the Elliott wave count.

The triangle for intermediate wave (B) is very likely to be complete. It is a barrier triangle: the B-D trend line is essentially flat (in fact, minor wave D ends very slightly below the end of minor wave B by 0.004).

Intermediate wave (C) downwards should subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse (most likely) or an ending diagonal (less likely). At this stage it is far too early to tell which structure may unfold although an impulse does look to be what is happening.

Minor wave 1 is almost complete, and it is unfolding as a simple impulse.

Within minor wave 1 there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio exhibited for minute wave v to either of i or iii. At 18.335 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i. As this is the most common relationship for a fifth wave this target has the highest probability.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii), and minuette wave (v) is 0.053 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves i and iii, and subminuette wave v is 0.019 longer than equality with subminuette wave i.

Minor wave 1 does not fit nicely into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques so I have drawn a best fit channel instead. When this channel is very clearly breached by a full daily candlestick above the upper pink trend line and not touching it then I would have confidence that minor wave 1 is over and minor wave 2 is underway. I would expect minor wave 2 to most likely be deep, maybe reaching up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 21.579.

Silver hourly 2014

Only the final fifth wave downwards is required to complete the structure for minor wave 1.

Minute wave v is incomplete. This downwards wave fits nicely so far into a channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the lows labeled minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy on the high labeled minuette wave (ii). In the first instance I would expect minuette wave (iv) to find resistance at the upper edge of that channel, and it may end there. Sometimes though fourth wave corrections are not contained within the channel which is why Elliott had a second technique to use when they breach the channel.

Minuette wave (ii) was a relatively deep 55% expanded flat correction. Minuette wave (iv) may be completing as a more shallow zigzag. It may end about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (iii) at 18.719.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 18.920.

When there is one more wave down to new lows, which may be minuette wave (v), then subsequent movement above 18.920 would provide price confirmation that minor wave 1 is over because at that stage upwards movement could not be a continuation of minuette wave (iv), so minute wave v and minor wave 1 would have to be over.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Video – 12th September, 2014

by Lara · September 13th, 2014 · Gold · 4 Comments

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th September, 2014

by Lara · September 13th, 2014 · Gold, Gold Historical · 2 Comments

Downwards movement continued as expected from last Elliott wave analysis. I have a new alternate wave count for you which differs at the weekly and daily chart level.

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