Upwards movement continues as expected towards the target. A short term target is now provided.
The USD index has been trending lower for six months now. A simple wave count at the monthly chart level may indicate what is most likely to happen next.
The Elliott channel (maroon) about cycle wave III is drawn using the first technique: a trend line is drawn from the end of the first and third waves, then a parallel copy is placed upon the end of the second wave. The fourth wave is normally contained within that channel. The fifth wave ends either mid way or at the upper edge of the channel.
If the fourth wave breaches the channel, then it is redrawn using the second technique: a trend line from the ends of the second to fourth waves, with a parallel copy on the end of the third wave.
For both techniques, after a possible fifth wave makes a new high (or is a complete structure which is occasionally truncated), a subsequent breach of the channel in the opposite direction is an indication that the whole structure is over and the next wave is underway.
The Elliott channel (maroon) about cycle wave III is breached. This indicates that cycle wave III may be over and cycle wave IV may be underway.
To determine how cycle wave IV may unfold the guideline of alternation and an eye for the right look is used.
This analysis is published @ 06:30 a.m. EST.
Upwards movement overall continues towards the target. Today the invalidation point on the hourly Elliott wave chart was invalidated by 1.05 before price turned upwards again.
Last analysis expected a new low to 15.17 before a trend change. There was no new low, but there has been a bounce.
An inside day completes a doji, as seen on the daily Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis charts.
Price has overcome resistance at 1,236.50. The target on the alternate Elliott wave count has been reached.
This chart was last published on 9th of July showing a breach of an important trend line.
Price is now bouncing up for another test. There is a little room still for a little more upwards movement, if price wants to come up to kiss the trend line.
Again, adding volume makes this simple trend line more powerful. The breach was supported by volume, but now the bounce is not. The volume profile is bearish, adding to confidence that price may now stay below the line.
This analysis is published @ 05:05 a.m. EST.
After last published analysis for Oil, another update was posted in comments the following day that expected that the bounce was not over. Price has moved higher since then.
The bounce has continued as the alternate hourly Elliott wave count expected.
For Friday a bounce was expected to continue to about 1,228 to 1,232. Price bounced exactly as expected to reach a high of 1,231.73.
Last analysis expected a downwards breakout below support at 16.05 – 15.70. This happened on the 7th of July.
Price has moved sideways and remains above the invalidation point on the hourly chart. The correction is taking a little longer than expected.
A new high above 1,222.72 invalidated the main hourly Elliott wave count and added confidence to the alternate hourly Elliott wave count. The alternate has some support from volume analysis, and its target remains the same today.