Yearly Archives: 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th December, 2013

The main hourly wave count for last analysis expected downwards movement to begin the new trading week which is exactly what happened. This main wave count had a higher probability than the alternate. This main wave count still has a higher probability, and I will only use the alternate if the main wave count is invalidated.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th December, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th December, 2013

Last analysis expected a fourth wave correction may have been complete. A trend channel was provided for confirmation. We did not get confirmation and price moved higher, remaining just below the invalidation point.

The wave count is mostly the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. To see a full explanation of my reasoning for expecting that primary wave 4 is not over and is continuing see this.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat correction, and was a deep 68% correction of primary wave 1. In order to show alternation in structure primary wave 4 may be a zigzag, double zigzag, combination, triangle or even an expanded or regular flat. We can rule out a zigzag because the first wave subdivides as a three. This still leaves several structural possibilities.

The downwards wave labeled intermediate wave (B) is now over 90% the length of the upwards wave labeled intermediate wave (A). Primary wave 4 may be a flat correction, but it may also still be a combination or triangle as there are still several different structural possibilities.

At 1,167.73 intermediate wave (B) would be 105% the length of intermediate wave (A), and primary wave 4 may be an expanded flat correction. Expanded flats normally have C waves which move substantially beyond the end of the A wave, and which are often 1.618 and sometimes 2.618 the length of the A wave. If 1,167.73 is reached and passed then the subsequent upwards wave for intermediate wave (C) may reach well above 1,433.83.

Within minor wave C there was no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio exhibited between minute wave v and either of i or iii. At 1,159 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave iii. This lower target allows enough room for minute wave v to complete.

Downwards movement has breached the parallel channel drawn about intermediate wave (B) downwards, and it has found support at the next trend line.

Draw a parallel channel about minor wave C downwards with the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low labeled minute wave iii. Downwards movement is finding support at the lower edge of this channel.

When the channel about intermediate wave (B) is finally breached by upwards movement then I would consider that final confirmation that intermediate wave (C) is underway.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minuette wave (iv) has moved higher, and we still do not have trend channel confirmation that it is over. There is almost no room left for upwards movement, and so it must be over if this wave count is correct.

At the daily chart level this main hourly wave count has a better look than the alternate below.

I want to see movement below the parallel channel containing minuette wave (iv) to have confidence that it is over. A full hourly candlestick below the channel and not touching the lower trend line would provide a clear channel breach.

While price remains within this channel the alternate hourly wave count below must be considered.

At 1,155 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (iii). This gives us a smaller $4 target zone.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,220.65.

If this main hourly wave count is invalidated then the alternate hourly wave count below should be used.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

There are two structural possibilities for a fifth wave. The main hourly wave count above looks at the more common structure of an impulse for minute wave v, and this alternate looks at the less common structure of an ending diagonal.

At the daily chart level this alternate wave count does not have the right look; ending diagonals normally have very obvious zigzags for subwaves 1, 3 and 5. On the daily chart for this ending diagonal minuette waves (i) and (iii) look like impulses and do not look like zigzags.

Within an ending diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide as zigzags. Diagonals are the only structures where you will see a third wave labeled as a zigzag.

Within a diagonal the second and fourth waves most commonly end between 0.66 and 0.81 of the prior subwave. Within this possible diagonal minuette wave (ii) was a 0.66 correction of minuette wave (i). Minuette wave (iv) would be between 0.66 and 0.81 the length of minuette wave (iii) between 1,230.10 and 1,239.82.

This wave count eliminates the problem of proportions within minuette wave (iii); this downwards movement subdivides nicely as a zigzag.

Within minuette wave (iv) subminuette wave a is remarkably short, and this reduces the probability of this wave count slightly. However, a bigger problem is within the structure of subminuette wave c: micro wave 3 must subdivide as an impulse and the only way this works is to see submicro wave (1) ending at 1,201.74 so that submicro wave (3) is not the shortest wave. If submicro wave (1) ends there then on the five minute chart it does not subdivide into a five wave structure. I will allow for the possibility that my analysis of this piece of movement may be wrong.

Within the diagonal minuette wave (iv) must overlap into minuette wave (i) price territory; this wave count requires movement above 1,220.65.

Within the diagonal minuette wave (iv) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (ii). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,252.12.

Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.

A new low below 1,180.40 is also possible for this wave count if the triangle is a running triangle, as about 40% of triangles are.

The expected direction and structure of this next upwards wave is the same, but for this alternate intermediate wave (C) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). The triangle is invalidated with movement above 1,438.83.

The final intermediate wave (E) upwards may not move above the end of intermediate wave (C) for both a contracting and barrier triangle. E waves most commonly end short of the A-C trend line.

All five subwaves of a triangle must divide into corrective structures. If this next upwards movement subdivides as a zigzag which does not make a new high above 1,438.83 then this alternate would be correct.

Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th December, 2013

Last analysis expected a continuation of a fourth wave correction, with two hourly charts for two possible structures.

The triangle was invalidated and this fourth wave subdivides nicely as a double zigzag, which may now be complete.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th December, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd December, 2013

Last analysis expected a little more upwards movement towards a short term target at 1,210 before price turned lower. This is not what happened.

Last analysis stated that if Monday produced a red candlestick that the current fourth wave correction would be unlikely to be over.

Price has moved a little lower in a slow sideways moving day.

The wave count remains the same. I have two hourly charts for you today looking at two possible structures for the completion of this fourth wave.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd December, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th December, 2013

The short term target for Friday was 1,180. Price fell short of the target reaching only 1,187.36. Downwards movement ended perfectly at the lower edge of the pink parallel channel on the daily and hourly chart.

The wave count remains the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th December, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th December, 2013

Yesterday’s short term target at 1,205 has been comfortably passed, and at the time of publication price is 13.67 below the target.

The wave count remains the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th December, 2013

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th December, 2013

Last analysis of Silver expected downwards movement towards a mid term target at 18.999. Price has moved lower. The target has not yet been reached, and the structure is incomplete. The target remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Minor wave B is an almost complete zigzag, which is within a bigger zigzag trending upwards one degree higher for intermediate wave (B). Because within intermediate wave (B) minor wave A subdivides as a five wave structure, minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

Within minor wave B minute wave a subdivides nicely as a leading expanding diagonal. Within the leading diagonal all the subwaves are zigzags except the third wave which is an impulse. For this piece of movement this structure has the best fit.

Minute wave b is labeled as an expanded flat correction. Within it minuette waves (a) and (b) both subdivide as three wave zigzags, and minuette wave (b) is a 106% correction of minuette wave (a). There is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Minute wave c is an incomplete impulse. At 18.591 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

The narrow channel drawn about minute wave c is drawn using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the ends of minuette waves (ii) to (iv), then place a parallel copy upon the end of minuette wave (iii). Downwards movement may end close to the mid line of this channel.

At 18.999 minuette wave (v) would reach equality with minuette wave (i). This would see the fifth wave truncated, which is possible after a strong extended third wave. Equality with the first wave is the most common ratio for a fifth wave, so that is what I am using for this target calculation.

Within minuette wave (v) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 20.489.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minute wave v there is now a completed five wave structure downwards, and a three wave structure upwards. This is most likely subminuette waves i and ii now complete.

Ratios within subminuette wave i are: micro wave 3 is just 0.029 short of 4.236 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either micro waves 3 or 1.

Within subminuette wave ii there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Subminuette wave iii must make a new low below the end of subminuette wave i at 19.305, and must move far enough below this price point to allow enough room for subminuette wave iv to unfold and not move back into subminuette wave i price territory.

I have drawn an acceleration channel about subminuette waves i and ii. Subminuette wave iii should breach the lower edge of this channel. On the way down any corrections should find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.

Within subminuette wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 20.279.

I would expect the target at 18.999 to be reached within two weeks.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th December, 2013

Slight movement below 1,220.65 has just invalidated the alternate wave count. The main wave count is confirmed.

Yesterday’s main wave count expected more downwards movement. A correction completed first, and now price is moving lower.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th December, 2013

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th December, 2013

Last analysis expected more downwards movement towards a short term target at 96.49. Downwards movement reached 96.21. Price turned upwards from there.

The wave count is the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

The bigger picture sees US Oil in a new downwards trend to last from one to several years. There is now a clear five wave structure downwards on the daily chart, and I have some confidence in a trend change at cycle degree.

Within the downwards movement the strongest downwards momentum is within the third wave. Minute wave iii is over and was just 0.40 longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is 0.29 short of 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (iii) and (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.08 short of 0.382 the length of minuette wave (i).

Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days. I would expect minor wave 2 to be around about a similar duration. It must subdivide into a clear three wave structure. It is most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 104.42. At 103.21 minute wave c would reach equality with minute wave a.

I have drawn a parallel channel about minor wave 2. I would expect minute wave c to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 112.24.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

So far minute wave c may be unfolding as an ending diagonal. The first upwards wave subdivides best as a zigzag, with a b wave triangle in the middle.

Within the diagonal minuette wave (ii) is most likely to end between 0.66 and 0.81 the length of minuette wave (i), between 96.78 and 96.53.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 96.21.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th December, 2013

Yesterday’s main wave count expected downwards movement which is what has happened. The alternate wave count probability has been further reduced.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th December, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th December, 2013

Both the main and alternate hourly wave counts expected more upwards movement for Monday. The target for the main wave count was 1,251. So far it has been exceeded by 1.32.

Both wave counts remain the same and both remain valid.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. To see a full explanation of my reasoning for expecting that primary wave 4 is not over and is continuing see this.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat correction, and was a deep 68% correction of primary wave 1. In order to show alternation in structure primary wave 4 may be a zigzag, double zigzag, combination, triangle or even an expanded or regular flat. We can rule out a zigzag because the first wave subdivides as a three. This still leaves several structural possibilities.

If primary wave 4 is a combination, expanded flat or running triangle then we may see a new low below 1,180.40 within it. This is why there is no lower invalidation point for intermediate wave (X).

If price reaches 1,205.74 then downwards movement labeled intermediate wave (X) would be 90% of upwards movement labeled intermediate wave (W). I would relabel primary wave 4 as an A-B-C flat correction. If price does not reach 1,205.74 then primary wave 4 is most likely a double combination.

Minor wave C must subdivide either as an ending diagonal or an impulse. It is clearly not an ending diagonal so it can only be an impulse. This impulsive structure is now almost complete; the final fifth wave downwards just needs to finish.

There was no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i within minor wave C. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio exhibited between minute wave v and either of i or iii. At 1,159 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave iii. At this stage this lower target allows enough room for minute wave v to complete.

Draw a parallel channel about minor wave C downwards with the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low labeled minute wave iii. If it gets that low downwards movement should find support at the lower edge of this channel.

I would expect downwards movement to also find support at the lower edge of the parallel channel drawn here about intermediate wave (X).

Draw a parallel channel about the zigzag of intermediate wave (X): draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. When this channel is finally breached by upwards movement then I would consider that final confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is underway.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

I have adjusted the wave count within the end of subminuette wave i after a more careful consideration of the hourly chart. It does not change the wave count at minuette wave degree.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is 3.55 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette waves iii or i.

Upwards movement looks very clearly like a three wave structure which is now complete. Within minuette wave (ii) there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c.

Movement below 1,238.75 would invalidate the alternate hourly chart below, and provide some confidence for this main wave count.

I have drawn a parallel channel about minuette wave (ii). When this channel is clearly breached by downwards movement we shall have trend channel confirmation that minuette wave (ii) is over and minuette wave (iii) is underway.

At 1,175 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (iii) downwards should exhibit an increase in downwards momentum beyond that seen for minuette wave (i). It may take about a week to unfold.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,267.98.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

If we simply move the degree of labeling within the last wave down all up one degree then there may have been an intermediate degree trend change at 1,220.65, but if this is the case minute wave v would be truncated. This truncation reduces the probability of this wave count.

1-2-3 and A-B-C subdivide in exactly the same way. For this alternate upwards movement from the low may be 1-2-3. The following fourth wave may not move into first wave price territory below 1,238.75.

If price moves below 1,238.75 the probability of this wave count reduces further. It would be possible at that stage that a leading diagonal may be unfolding in a first wave position, but leading diagonals are not common; impulses for first waves are more common.

This alternate wave count requires confirmation with movement above 1,267.98 before I would have confidence in it.

Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.

The expected direction and structure of this next upwards wave is the same, but for this alternate intermediate wave (C) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). The triangle is invalidated with movement above 1,438.83.

The final intermediate wave (E) upwards may not move above the end of intermediate wave (C) for both a contracting and barrier triangle. E waves most commonly end short of the A-C trend line.

All five subwaves of a triangle must divide into corrective structures. If this next upwards movement subdivides as a zigzag which does not make a new high above 1,438.83 then this alternate would be correct.

Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th December, 2013

Both the first and second hourly wave counts expected more downwards movement to a target at 1,208 before price turned upwards. We did see some downwards movement before price turned upwards, but it ended at 1,220.65, which is $12.65 short of the target.

Both wave counts remain the same and both remain valid.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th December, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th December, 2013

Movement below 1,244.74 has clarified the situation. At that stage the second hourly chart for the main wave count was confirmed, and more downwards movement was expected.

Today I have the same main daily chart and two hourly charts for you.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th December, 2013