Monthly Archives: February 2013

Gold Elliott Wave Analysis – 27th February, 2013

Last week’s analysis of gold expected price to fall for the week. A new low was made and then price moved higher, remaining below the invalidation point on the daily chart.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Within intermediate wave (3) price may have today moved into the middle of it. Minor wave 1 was a leading diagonal, and minor wave 2 zigzag was a 55% correction of minor wave 1.

Within the zigzags of intermediate wave (2) and minor wave 2 there are no Fibonacci ratios between the A and C waves.

At 1,488 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

At 1,431 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At this stage minute wave iii is most likely complete and has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i. Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This daily wave count is invalidated at minute degree with movement above 1,652.14.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

Gold hourly 2013

Because the upwards structure for minute wave iv is a complete zigzag and it already slightly overshoots the channel containing downwards movement it is likely that this correction is over.

Minuette wave (c) is just 1.76 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Ratios within minuette wave (a) are: subminuette wave iii is 0.44 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.68 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Minuette wave (b) is an expanded flat correction. Subminuette wave b is a 121% correction of subminuette wave a, and subminuette wave c is just 0.13 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

Ratios within minuette wave (c) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 1.62 short of 4.236 the length of subminuette wave i.

If minute wave iv is complete then within minute wave v minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,620.2.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

Gold hourly alternate 2013

If we move everything within minute wave iv down one degree we may have only seen minuette wave (a) within minute wave iv.

Minute wave iv may be unfolding as a flat correction, or as a double (if minuette wave (a) is relabeled as minuette wave (w) the first structure in a double).

If minute wave iv is unfolding as a flat correction then minuette wave (b) must reach at least 90% the length of minuette wave (a). This would be achieved at 1,562.

Minuette wave (b) may make a new low below the start of minuette wave (a), and for a flat is reasonably likely to do so. There can be no downwards price point which differentiates this alternate from the main wave count, and only the structure will indicate which wave count is correct. Minuette wave (b) must unfold as a three wave structure.

If minute wave iv is a double then there is no lower price point which minuette wave (x) would have to reach, but it must unfold as a three. Again, it is structure of this downwards wave which differentiates this alternate from the main wave count.

When minuette wave (b) (or minuette wave (x)) is complete then minuette wave (c) is likely to make a new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 1,620.20.

If minuete wave iv is a double combination then we would expect mostly sideways movement for a few days yet.

 

Gold Elliott Wave Analysis – 20th February, 2013

Last analysis of gold was on 25th January, 2012. That analysis expected a final upwards push to a target at 1,922 to 1,996. This did not happen and price has moved lower, although it has not breached the invalidation point on the weekly chart at 1,522.75.

I am reanalysing my monthly wave counts. I have a new monthly alternate, although the main wave count is the same and has a higher probability.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Historical Analysis.

Gold monthly 2013

Olive labels are super cycle and teal green labels are cycle. For a wave notation table go here.

There are some remarkably good fibonacci relationships in this analysis.

Within super cycle wave IV, cycle wave a ending Feb 1985 lasted 61 months. Cycle wave b ending Dec 1987 was a 38% correction of wave a and lasted a fibonacci 34 months. Cycle wave c has no Fibonacci ratio to cycle wave a and lasted 140 months, 4 short of a Fibonacci 144.

Within cycle wave c within super cycle wave IV ratios at primary degree are: primary wave 3 is just 2.35 short of equality with primary wave 1, and primary wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. Regarding duration primary wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 months, primary wave 3 has no Fibonacci duration nor does primary wave 5.

Within super cycle wave V cycle wave III is 109.16 longer than 2.618 the length of cycle wave I, an 8% variation (less than 10% is acceptable). Neither have a Fibonacci duration.

Ratios within cycle wave I of super cycle wave V are: primary wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1, and primary wave 5 is 16.35 short of 4.236 the length of primary wave 1. In terms of duration primary wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 2 months, primary wave 2 has no Fibonacci duration, primary wave 3 lasted 35 months, one more than a Fibonacci 34, primary wave 4 has no Fibonacci duration, and primary wave 5 has no Fibonacci duration.

Within primary wave 2 of cycle wave I of super cycle wave V, intermediate wave (C) is just 2.15 longer than equality with intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (A) lasted a Fibonacci 2 months, as did intermediate wave (B), and intermediate wave (C) lasted one month short of a Fibonacci 13.

Ratios within primary wave 3 of cycle wave I of super cycle wave V are: intermediate wave (3) is 7.9 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of intermediate waves (1) or (3). In terms of duration intermediate waves (1) and (2) both lasted a Fibonacci 3 months, there is no Fibonacci duration for intermediate wave (3), intermediate wave (4) lasted a Fibonacci 5 months and there is no Fibonacci duration for intermediate wave (5).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) of primary wave 3 of cycle wave I of super cycle wave V are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is 5.52 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Ratios within primary wave 5 of cycle wave I of super cycle wave V are: there are no Fibonacci ratios between intermediate waves (1), (3) and (5). In terms of duration intermediate waves (4) and (5) both lasted a Fibonacci 2 months.

Ratios within cycle wave III of super cycle wave V are: primary wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1, and primary wave 5 is 14.26 longer than equality with primary wave 1 (a 3.2% variation). In terms of duration primary wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 months, primary wave 2 a Fibonacci 3 months, primary wave 3 has no Fibonacci duration, and primary waves 4 and 5 both lasted a Fibonacci 2 months.

Ratios within primary wave 1 of cycle wave III of super cycle wave V are: intermediate wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) is 12.56 longer than equality with intermediate wave (1) and is also 8.4 short of 0.382 the length of intermediate wave (3). In terms of duration only intermediate waves (4) and (5) have a Fibonacci duration, both lasted 2 months.

Ratios within primary wave 3 of cycle wave III of super cycle wave V are: intermediate wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) is just 8.29 longer than 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). In terms of duration intermediate wave (1) has no Fibonacci duration, intermediate wave (2) lasted a Fibonacci 2 months, intermediate wave (3) lasted a Fibonacci 8 months, intermediate wave (4) lasted a Fibonacci 2 months, and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci duration.

Ratios within intermediate wave (5) of primary wave 3 of cycle wave III of super cycle wave V are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 5.61 short of equality with minor wave 3.

Within cycle wave IV of super cycle wave V primary wave A lasted a Fibonacci 3 months. Primary wave B has no Fibonacci duration. Within primary wave B intermediate wave (C) is just 0.9 longer than equality with intermediate wave (A), while intermediate wave (A) lasted a Fibonacci 2 months, intermediate wave (B) lasted a Fibonacci 3 months and intermediate wave (C) lasted a Fibonacci 5 months (a perfect Fibonacci sequence). This zigzag is the most perfect I have ever seen.

Within cycle wave IV primary wave C would reach equality with primary wave A at 1,398. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory. This wave count would be invalidated at cycle degree with movement below 730.4.

Gold daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Within intermediate wave (3) price may have today moved into the middle of it. Minor wave 1 was a leading diagonal, minor wave 2 zigzag was a 55% correction of minor wave 1.

Within the zigzags of intermediate wave (2) and minor wave 2 there are no Fibonacci ratios between the A and C waves.

At 1,488 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

At 1,431 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At this stage when minute wave iii is completed the following minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This daily wave count is invalidated at minute degree with movement above 1,652.14.

Alternate Monthly Wave Count.

Gold monthly alternate 2013

This monthly wave count does not have a good a look as the main monthly wave count, but I am considering it because the subdivisons within primary wave 3 are a slightly better fit than the main wave count.

This current correction looks too large in duration to be a series of overlapping first and second waves; particularly minor waves 1 and 2 look too large. However, it is possible.

Ratios are the same as the main wave count up to the ends of cycle waves I and II. Thereafter, the wave count differs.

Within cycle wave III primary wave 3 is 116.61 longer than 2.618 the length of primary wave 1; not a good ratio but it is a 9.4% variation which is less than 10%. Primary wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 months, primary wave 2 lasted a Fibonacci 2 months, primary wave 3 lasted one more than a Fibonacci 34 months, and primary wave 4 may be over in a Fibonacci 3 months.

Ratios within primary wave 3 are: intermediate wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) is just 2.97 longer than 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (3). In terms of duration only intermediate waves (2), (4) and (5) may be considered to have a Fibonacci duration at 2 months each.

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) of primary wave 3 are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 2.58 longer than 4.236 the length of minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 5 of intermediate wave (3) of primary wave 3 are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is 5.61 short of equality with minute wave iii.

If primary wave 4 is not over and extends lower it may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This alternate is invalidated at primary wave degree with movement below 1,032.7.

The other reason why I do not prefer this alternate is it is not conforming to a trend channel. If cycle wave III is not over we have an unusual breach of the channel drawn using Elliott’s second technique. This does not have the right look at all.

 

US Oil Elliott Wave Analysis – 19th February, 2013

My last oil analysis was over a year ago and it expected price to move lower. Price has mostly moved sideways in a decreasing range for the last year.

My wave count at the monthly chart level is changed very little. I have a new monthly alternate.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

US Oil monthly 2013

The long rise to the high of 146.73 in July 2008 looks typically impulsive, with a spike at the end typical of commodities.

This may have been the end of a first wave at super cycle degree, wave (I) (olive green).

Thereafter, the drop labeled cycle wave a (teal green) subdivides reasonably well into a five wave structure which indicates that the upwards trend is over and a new downwards trend is underway. If this is an A wave it also indicates that the downwards correction is a zigzag which rules out a new all time high in the foreseeable future.

This main wave count looks at the possibility that cycle wave b was over in just over two years as a single zigzag structure. Within cycle wave b primary wave C is just 1.64 points short of equality with primary wave A.

If cycle wave c has begun at 114.82 then it has begun with a series of overlapping first and second waves. This indicates that a strong third wave downwards should follow soon. Price movement below 77.29 would provide confirmation of this wave count as at that stage the alternate below would be invalidated.

Within this new downwards trend intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1). This main wave count is invalidated with movement above 110.56.

US Oil daily 2013

This daily chart looks at the end of intermediate wave (1) with minor waves 1 and 2 to follow it now complete.

Minor wave 1 is a leading contracting diagonal. Following a leading diagonal in a first wave position we would expect to see a very deep second wave correction. Minor wave 2 is an 87% correction of minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 2 there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.

Ratios within minute wave c are: minuette wave (iii) is just 0.6 points longer than 4.236 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.05 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.16 short of equality with micro wave 1.

If this wave count is correct then it is extremely likely that minor wave 2 is complete. At 71.33 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

If price moves above 100.43 I may favour the alternate wave count below.

Alternate Wave Count.

US Oil monthly alternate 2013

There may be a triangle forming over the last 18 months. If so it would most likely be an X wave at primary degree, because the upwards movement labeled primary wave W subdivides as a three not a five.

The triangle would be contracting. It may be over, or intermediate wave (D) or (E) may yet continue further sideways in an ever decreasing range for a while yet.

Movement above 110.56 would indicate that the triangle is complete and the following upwards thrust would be underway.

Movement below 77.29 would invalidate the triangle because intermediate wave (E) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (C). If the triangle is invalidated with downwards movement the main wave count above would be confirmed.

Price exits a triangle in the same direction it entered. This wave count expects an upwards thrust when the triangle is completed. The upwards thrust may travel about the same distance as the widest part of the triangle which was 39.86.

Because cycle wave a subdivides best as a five super cycle wave (II) may be a zigzag. Within the zigzag cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. Movement above 146.73 to a new all time high is not expected for this wave count.