Monthly Archives: March 2013

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th March, 2013

Last analysis expected more upwards movement before a short term trend change. Upwards movement did make a new high and complete the structure.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 is underway.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i is complete and minute wave ii is either complete as a single zigzag (main hourly wave count) or is half way done as a double combination or double zigzag (alternate hourly wave count).

At 1,488 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This target is at least a couple of weeks away.

At 1,431 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). This target is a few weeks away.

At 1,398 primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A. This target is still weeks to months away.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated at minute degree with movement above 1,696.26.

The parallel channel drawn here is a best fit. I would expect upwards movement for minute wave ii to find resistance about the upper edge of this channel.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

It is most likely that minute wave ii is over as a single zigzag because this would see it nicely in proportion to minute wave i. If it is over then it reached just to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i.

Because the first wave downwards labeled subminuette wave i subdivides into a zigzag and not an impulse it is likely that minute wave iii is beginning with a leading diagonal.

The diagonal is expanding because subminuette wave iii is longer than subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave iv is longer than subminuette wave ii. This means we may expect subminuette wave v to be at least as long as subminuette wave iii, so downwards movement should reach to 1,584 or below.

When the diagonal is complete with the last wave down then we may expect the following correction for minuette wave (ii) to be very deep.

Within the diagonal subminuette wave iv may not move beyond the end of subminuette wave ii. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,613.15.

If price moves above 1,613.15 we may use the alternate below.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart alternate 2013

If we move the labeling within minute wave ii all down one degree we may have seen only the first structure in a double complete. The double would be joined by a three in the opposite direction labeled minuette wave (x).

The second corrective structure so far looks most like a zigzag. Within the zigzag subminuette waves a and b are complete. Subminuette wave c would be most likely incomplete.

The purpose of double zigzags is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag did not move price far enough. I would expect minuette wave (y) to take price closer to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i at 1,646. At 1,638 subminuette wave c would reach 2.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

Within subminuette wave c micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,591.47.

 

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th March, 2013

Movement above 1,599.78 invalidated the main wave count from last analysis and confirmed the alternate. At that stage price was expected to be in a higher degree longer lasting correction with an initial expected target about 1,646.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Within intermediate wave minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 is underway.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i is complete and minute wave ii is close to completion. It should complete within the next few days. Thereafter, momentum to the downside should build as the middle of a third wave unfolds.

At 1,488 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

At 1,431 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). This target is weeks away.

At 1,398 primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A. This target is still weeks to months away.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated at minute degree with movement above 1,696.26.

The parallel channel drawn here is a best fit. I would expect upwards movement for minute wave ii to find resistance about the upper edge of this channel.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This two hourly chart shows the whole structure of the expanded flat correction for minute wave ii. So far minuette wave (c) has just passed 2.618 the length of minuette wave (a) and they may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to each other.

Within minuette wave (c) subminuette wave iii is just 0.31 longer than equality with subminuette wave i. Subminuette wave v is less likely to exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii. This makes target calculation difficult; Fibonacci ratios of minute wave i may be the most reliable.

At 1,640 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave iii. At 1,646 minute wave ii would reach up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i. I favour the upper edge of this target zone, but it does not have a high probability.

We may use Elliott’s channeling technique to draw a channel about minuette wave (c). Draw the first trend line from the highs of subminuette waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy upon the low of subminuette wave ii. So far subminuette wave iv remains contained within the channel. Subminuette wave v may end either mid way within the channel, or about the upper edge. When the channel is breached by subsequent downwards movement then we may expect that minuette wave (c) is complete and so minute wave ii is complete.

The next wave would be a third wave to the downside. This is likely to begin sometime over the next week, perhaps after only one or two more sessions.

In the short term (before a five up for subminuette wave v is complete) any further downwards movement for subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,599.78.

 

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th March, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected gold to rise towards one of two targets. The first target was at 1,590 and the second at 1,604. Price has moved higher to reach up to 1,599.78, 4.22 below the second target.

This week I expect gold to resume the downwards trend.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Within intermediate wave (3) price may have just moved through the middle of it over the last week. MACD does show an increase in downwards momentum for the middle of minor wave 3 beyond that seen for minor wave 1.

Minor wave 1 was a leading diagonal, and minor wave 2 zigzag was a 55% correction of minor wave 1.

Within the zigzags of intermediate wave (2) and minor wave 2 there are no Fibonacci ratios between the A and C waves.

At 1,488 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. At 1,489 minute wave v within minor wave 3 would reach equality in length with minute wave iii.

At 1,431 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). This target is weeks away.

At 1,398 primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A. This target is still weeks to months away.

At this stage minute wave iii is most likely complete and has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i. Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This daily wave count is invalidated at minute degree with movement above 1,652.14.

Price is not contained within the channel drawn about minor wave 3. The long duration of minuette wave (ii) may be a small cause for concern with this wave count. If it extends any higher I would consider that it could be minute wave iv moving further as a double combination or maybe a triangle.

If momentum increases further for the next downwards wave then minor wave 3 may be extending further. I would move the labeling within it down one degree.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Minuette wave (ii) is now a completed flat correction. Subminuette wave b is a 116% correction of subminuette wave a and subminuette wave c has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave a.

Ratios within subminuette wave c are: micro wave 3 is 1.15 longer than equality with micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.61 longer than 0.382 the length of micro wave 3.

With minuette wave (ii) now ending with a slight overshoot of the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i), and a complete structure, it is most likely that it is over now.

I would expect strong downwards movement this week for gold.

At 1,510.4 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (i) lasted a Fibonacci 3 sessions and minuette wave (ii) may now be over in a Fibonacci 8 sessions. Minuette wave (iii) may last either 3 or 5 sessions.

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,599.78.

If this wave count is invalidated with upwards movement then I would consider the alternate below may be correct.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count is the same as the main daily wave count up to the high labeled minor wave 2. Thereafter, I have moved the degree of labeling within minor wave 3 down one degree and seen minute wave i as over with a truncated fifth wave.

The subdivisions are essentially the same as the main daily wave count. This alternate expects minor wave 3 may be further extended. Calculated targets may be too high.

If price continues to rise this week then I expect the correction would be a higher degree than minuette and this wave count would make more sense.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This alternate is invalidated with movement above 1,696.26.

 

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th March, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected to see further downwards movement for gold, before a second wave correction. Price moved lower before beginning some sideways movement. This is pretty much what was expected.

The wave count remains the same. I can now calculate targets for this correction to end.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Within intermediate wave (3) price may have just moved through the middle of it over the last week. MACD does show an increase in downwards momentum for the middle of minor wave 3 beyond that seen for minor wave 1.

Minor wave 1 was a leading diagonal, and minor wave 2 zigzag was a 55% correction of minor wave 1.

Within the zigzags of intermediate wave (2) and minor wave 2 there are no Fibonacci ratios between the A and C waves.

At 1,488 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. At 1,489 minute wave v within minor wave 3 would reach equality in length with minute wave iii.

At 1,431 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). This target is weeks away.

At 1,398 primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A. This target is still weeks to months away.

At this stage minute wave iii is most likely complete and has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i. Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This daily wave count is invalidated at minute degree with movement above 1,652.14.

I have redrawn the small parallel channel about minor wave 3. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave iii. We may expect minute wave v to end midway within this channel, or about the lower edge. On the way down price is likely to remain contained within this channel.

If momentum increases further for the next downwards wave then minor wave 3 may be extending further. I would move the labeling within it down one degree.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Price moved lower to complete a five wave impulse for minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is 2.23 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 3.08 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave v are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.18 longer than equality in length with micro wave 1.

So far minuette wave (ii) may be unfolding as a zigzag. Within it subminuette wave b may be a completed double zigzag structure and 89% of subminuette wave a.

At 1,590 subminuette wave c would reach equality in length with subminuette wave a. If price continues to rise through this first target then the next target is at 1,604 where subminuette wave c would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

Subminuette wave c must subdivide into a five wave structure.

Minuette wave (ii) has already lasted four days. I would expect it to end in one or two more days and not much more.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,620.20.

The alternate wave count now looks unlikely as downwards movement fell short of the target required for a flat at 1,562. Thus the hourly wave count above will be my only wave count for now.