Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th March, 2013

Last analysis expected more upwards movement before a short term trend change. Upwards movement did make a new high and complete the structure.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 is underway.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i is complete and minute wave ii is either complete as a single zigzag (main hourly wave count) or is half way done as a double combination or double zigzag (alternate hourly wave count).

At 1,488 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This target is at least a couple of weeks away.

At 1,431 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). This target is a few weeks away.

At 1,398 primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A. This target is still weeks to months away.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated at minute degree with movement above 1,696.26.

The parallel channel drawn here is a best fit. I would expect upwards movement for minute wave ii to find resistance about the upper edge of this channel.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

It is most likely that minute wave ii is over as a single zigzag because this would see it nicely in proportion to minute wave i. If it is over then it reached just to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i.

Because the first wave downwards labeled subminuette wave i subdivides into a zigzag and not an impulse it is likely that minute wave iii is beginning with a leading diagonal.

The diagonal is expanding because subminuette wave iii is longer than subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave iv is longer than subminuette wave ii. This means we may expect subminuette wave v to be at least as long as subminuette wave iii, so downwards movement should reach to 1,584 or below.

When the diagonal is complete with the last wave down then we may expect the following correction for minuette wave (ii) to be very deep.

Within the diagonal subminuette wave iv may not move beyond the end of subminuette wave ii. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,613.15.

If price moves above 1,613.15 we may use the alternate below.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart alternate 2013

If we move the labeling within minute wave ii all down one degree we may have seen only the first structure in a double complete. The double would be joined by a three in the opposite direction labeled minuette wave (x).

The second corrective structure so far looks most like a zigzag. Within the zigzag subminuette waves a and b are complete. Subminuette wave c would be most likely incomplete.

The purpose of double zigzags is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag did not move price far enough. I would expect minuette wave (y) to take price closer to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i at 1,646. At 1,638 subminuette wave c would reach 2.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

Within subminuette wave c micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,591.47.