Monthly Archives: April 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2013

Last analysis of gold expected it was likely that a fourth wave correction was over and price should move lower. However, it was also stated that without a clear five down and a new low we could not eliminate the possibility that the fourth wave correction may continue. This is what has happened. Price remains below the invalidation point at 1,540.24 and the wave count remains valid.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed the middle of it.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i and ii are complete and minute wave iii is nearing its end.

At 1,273 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. This gives us a short term target zone of only $6 which should be met within the week.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

When minute wave iii is complete then the following correction for minute wave iv may not move back into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,555.16.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

There are thirteen possible corrective structures. This is the crux of the difficulty with Elliott wave analysis. Which structure will unfold? When is it over?

I have looked at several different possibilities for this fourth wave correction and each possibility concludes that it cannot be over. I expect some more upwards movement.

The best fit in terms of subdivisions is a rare triple zigzag structure.

Within the first zigzag of the triple, subminuette wave w, micro wave C is 1.69 longer than equality with micro wave A.

Within the first subminuette wave x there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Within the second zigzag of the triple, subminuette wave y, there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Within the second subminuette wave x there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Subminuette wave z is incomplete. At 1,451 micro wave C within subminuette wave z would reach equality in length with micro wave A.

We may draw a best fit parallel channel about minuette wave (iv). So far most movement is contained within this channel, only the first subminuette wave x overshoots the channel. When this channel is clearly and strongly breached by downwards movement we shall have an indication that minuette wave (iv) is over and minuette wave (v) is underway.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated at minute wave degree with movement above 1,540.24.

 

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th April, 2013

I am reverting back to my original gold wave count. Targets for that wave count have been breached so are recalculated.

This wave count expects that downwards movement is a third wave. The structure is incomplete. It needs further downwards to go. Along the way we shall see a series of fourth wave corrections.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed the middle of it.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i and ii are complete and minute wave iii is nearing its end.

At 1,279 minuette wave (v) within minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). Because there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii) it is more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (i) or (iii).

At 1,273 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. This gives us a short term target zone of only $6 which should be met within the week.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

When minute wave iii is complete then the following correction for minute wave iv may not move back into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,555.16.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This structure shows movement within minute wave iii. We may draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette wave (i) (just off to the left of the chart, you see it on the daily chart) to minuette wave (iii). Place a parallel copy on the high of micro wave 2 within minuette wave (iii) to contain all movement.

Minuette wave (iv) looks like it may be over as a single zigzag correction ending midway within the channel. I would expect minuette wave (v) to end either midway within the channel, or to find support about the lower edge.

Without a new low and a clear new five down on the hourly chart we must accept the possibility that minuette wave (iv) may not be over and may continue further sideways as a flat or double. If it does it may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,540.24.

 

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th April, 2013

**Edit: This wave count has been clearly invalidated. I will use my prior wave count found here.

Sometimes it takes someone pointing out a different way of seeing things in order for one to remove one’s blinkers. I was having difficulty with my count for gold, and maybe I have a bias towards trying to always see extended third waves. Either way a most helpful comment from a viewer at just the right time leads me to rework my count for gold.

I will not publish my previous wave count, but I will retain it just in case price starts to fall with an increase in momentum.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold monthly 2013

I expect gold is within a large cycle degree fourth wave correction. When this first zigzag structure is complete I will have an alternate wave count which sees it as just primary wave A within a flat for cycle wave IV. When the zigzag is complete this main wave count will see cycle wave IV as complete.

I will not cover all the Fibonacci ratios within this monthly chart again, they may be seen here.

This chart is viewed using a semi-log scale.

I have drawn a best fit parallel channel about this movement. The first trend line is drawn from the highs of cycle waves I to III, then a parallel copy is placed upon the low of primary wave 2 within cycle wave III. At this time price has found a little support about the lower edge of this channel.

I have also drawn a channel about the zigzag for cycle wave IV. The first trend line is drawn from the all time high, the start of primary wave A, to the end of primary wave B. Then a parallel copy is placed upon the end of primary wave A. I would expect primary wave C to be very likely to find strong support about the lower edge of this channel.

At 1,398 primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A.

Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 730.4.

Gold daily 2013

This daily chart shows the structure of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) may be complete.

Intermediate wave (3) is 14.86 longer than 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), a 6.9% variation which is acceptable.

Intermediate wave (3) shows an increase in momentum as indicated by MACD.

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 is just 2.66 longer than equality with minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is 4.99 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 3 there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 2 and 4 show perfect alternation; minor wave 2 was a relatively deep zigzag correction and minor wave 4 was a relatively shallow flat correction.

Minor wave 5 may have ended midway within the parallel channel containing intermediate wave (3), a common place for fifth waves to end.

We need to see this channel breached clearly by upwards movement to have confidence that intermediate wave (3) is over and intermediate wave (4) is underway.

Within intermediate wave (4) minor waves A and B may be complete, or this may only be the start of minor wave A. At 1,635 minor wave C would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A and intermediate wave (4) would reach to just above the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (3).

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

 

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th April, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected gold to move lower to a short term target at 1,533 before turning upwards for a correction. Price moved slightly lower but failed to get close to the target, moving only down to 1,540.24 before turning higher. With movement above 1,589.90 this upwards movement cannot be a fourth wave correction and so I have adjusted the wave count.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 is underway.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i is complete and minute wave ii is either complete as a single zigzag (main hourly wave count) or is half way done as a double combination or double zigzag (alternate hourly wave count).

At 1,488 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This target is at least a couple of weeks away.

At 1,431 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). This target is a few weeks away.

At 1,398 primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A. This target is still weeks to months away.

Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated at minute degree with movement above 1,614.91.

The parallel channel drawn here is a best fit. Minute wave iii is very likely to break through support of the lower edge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This week I will use a 2 hourly chart to show the whole movement from the end of minute wave ii.

From the start of minute wave iii so far this movement does not look like a five wave structure downwards. Minuette wave (i) is unlikely to be complete.

What is most likely is we are seeing yet another two degrees of overlapping first and second waves complete. Upwards movement labeled micro wave 2 cannot be subminuette wave iv because it has moved back into subminuette wave i price territory above 1,589.90.

Ratios within micro wave 1 are: submicro wave (3) is 1.14 short of 4.236 the length of submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is just 0.72 longer than equality with submicro wave (1).

Ratios within submicro wave (3) are: miniscule wave 3 is 1.64 longer than 0.618 the length of miniscule wave 1, and miniscule wave 5 is 1.5 longer than 0.618 the length of miniscule wave 3.

Ratios within miniscule wave 1 are: nano wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to nano wave i, and nano wave v is 1.27 short of 0.618 the length of nano wave iii.

Within micro wave 2 double zigzag there is no Fibonacci ratio between miniscule waves A and C of submicro wave (W), within submicro wave (X) miniscule wave C is 0.55 longer than 1.618 the length of miniscule wave A, and there is no Fibonacci ratio between miniscule waves A and C within submicro wave (Y).

A best fit parallel channel drawn about micro wave 2 shows a clear channel breach to the downside with impulsive movement. Micro wave 3 should be underway.

Within submicro wave (1) of micro wave 3 miniscule wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to miniscule wave 1, and miniscule wave 5 is so far 0.07 longer than 1.618 the length of miniscule wave 1. It may be likely that submicro wave (1) is over here and we shall see a little upwards movement for submicro wave (2) before downwards movement takes price to new lows with an increase in momentum.

If minute wave iii is extending then for it to begin with a series of overlapping first and second waves is actually very common. This wave count has a typical look.

At 1,522 micro wave 3 would reach equality in length with micro wave 1. This target should be met within another two to three sessions.

Micro wave 2 was a deep double zigzag structure. I would expect micro wave 4 to be a shallow flat correction, most likely.

Within micro wave 3 submicro wave (2) may not move beyond the start of submicro wave (1). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,590.45.

 

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd April, 2013

Last week’s gold analysis expected more downwards movement to reach below 1,584 before upwards movement for a deep correction.

Price has moved lower as expected, significantly below 1,584. There was no deep second wave correction, yet.

Because downwards momentum has increased significantly the wave count has changed. It looks like gold is heading into the middle of a third wave down.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 is underway.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i is complete and minute wave ii is either complete as a single zigzag (main hourly wave count) or is half way done as a double combination or double zigzag (alternate hourly wave count).

At 1,488 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This target is at least a couple of weeks away.

At 1,431 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). This target is a few weeks away.

At 1,398 primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A. This target is still weeks to months away.

Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated at minute degree with movement above 1,614.91.

The parallel channel drawn here is a best fit. Minute wave iii is very likely to break through support of the lower edge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Within minute wave iii the movement began with a small leading diagonal labeled here subminuette wave i.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves i and iii which makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between subminuette wave v and either of i or iii. At 1,533 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 2.85 longer than 2.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 1.64 short of 0.618 the length of micro wave 3.

Subminuette wave ii was a deep regular flat correction. Within it micro wave C is 0.99 short of equality with micro wave A.

If subminuette wave iv continues higher as a double or a flat then it may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,589.90.

When subminuette wave v completes minuette wave (i) the invalidation point must move up to the start of this movement at 1,616.66. Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).

When minuette wave (i) is a complete five wave structure then a Fibonacci retracement needs to be drawn along its length. Minuette wave (ii) may end at either the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i).