Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd April, 2013

Last week’s gold analysis expected more downwards movement to reach below 1,584 before upwards movement for a deep correction.

Price has moved lower as expected, significantly below 1,584. There was no deep second wave correction, yet.

Because downwards momentum has increased significantly the wave count has changed. It looks like gold is heading into the middle of a third wave down.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 is underway.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i is complete and minute wave ii is either complete as a single zigzag (main hourly wave count) or is half way done as a double combination or double zigzag (alternate hourly wave count).

At 1,488 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This target is at least a couple of weeks away.

At 1,431 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). This target is a few weeks away.

At 1,398 primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A. This target is still weeks to months away.

Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated at minute degree with movement above 1,614.91.

The parallel channel drawn here is a best fit. Minute wave iii is very likely to break through support of the lower edge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Within minute wave iii the movement began with a small leading diagonal labeled here subminuette wave i.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves i and iii which makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between subminuette wave v and either of i or iii. At 1,533 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 2.85 longer than 2.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 1.64 short of 0.618 the length of micro wave 3.

Subminuette wave ii was a deep regular flat correction. Within it micro wave C is 0.99 short of equality with micro wave A.

If subminuette wave iv continues higher as a double or a flat then it may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,589.90.

When subminuette wave v completes minuette wave (i) the invalidation point must move up to the start of this movement at 1,616.66. Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).

When minuette wave (i) is a complete five wave structure then a Fibonacci retracement needs to be drawn along its length. Minuette wave (ii) may end at either the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i).