Monthly Archives: May 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th May, 2013

Last week’s gold analysis expected downwards movement towards a target at 1,329. Price has not moved lower, but nor has it moved above the invalidation point at 1,419.78. Price has moved sideways for the week.

Sideways movement looks like a contracting triangle. This is either a fourth wave correction or an X wave within a larger fourth wave correction. I have two wave counts for you this week looking at these two possibilities.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed its middle.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i, ii, iii and iv are complete. Minute wave v may be incomplete.

At 1,276 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the orthodox length of minute wave i. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii I expect we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Draw a channel about minor wave 3 using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minute waves ii and iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave iii. Expect minute wave v to end midway within this channel most likely, or to find support at the lower edge if it gets down there. When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then minor wave 3 should be over and minor wave 4 should be underway.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 1,441.48.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The triangle may be minuette wave (iv) within minute wave v.

All the triangle subwaves subdivide into zigzags or zigzag multiples so far. The final wave of subminuette wave e should be over. Any further upwards movement for subminuette wave e may not move beyond the end of subminuette wave c for a contracting triangle. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,402.23.

If this wave count is invalidated with upwards movement we may use the alternate below.

Alternate Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

At the daily chart level this alternate is the same as the main wave count up to the point labeled minute wave iv within minor wave 3. Thereafter, this alternate sees the last wave downwards as a five wave impulse for a truncated fifth wave for minute wave v to end minor wave 3.

Because this wave count sees a truncation it has a slightly lower probability than the main wave count.

Within recent sideways movement the triangle may have begun at the high labeled minute wave w within minor wave 4. Minor wave 4 may be unfolding as a double zigzag or double combination, with the first structure minute wave w a complete zigzag, the three joining the two structures labeled minute wave x unfolding as a triangle. Minute wave y is most likely to be a zigzag, but it may also be a flat correction.

If price moves above 1,402.23 then the triangle is completed and the next movement is upwards. If the next wave upwards travels the same distance as the widest part of the triangle it would end at 1,449.09.

Minute wave y is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag lasting a few days.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

Within the recent sideways movement the subdivisions are seen here the same as the main wave count, except the degree of labeling is higher.

At the hourly chart level this alternate does not have as good a look as the main wave count.

Within a contracting triangle minuette wave (e) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (c). This triangle is invalidated with movement below 1,379.57.

 

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd May, 2013

Last week’s analysis had a short term target on the hourly chart at 1,357 for micro wave 3. Price fell short of this target by 12.78 before a small fourth wave correction, then continued lower to complete a fifth wave. The following fourth wave correction has remained below the invalidation point at 1,441.48.

The wave count remains the same and is nicely explaining recent movement.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed its middle.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i, ii, iii and iv are complete. Minute wave v has just begun.

At 1,276 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the orthodox length of minute wave i. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii I expect we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Draw a channel about minor wave 3 using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minute waves ii and iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave iii. Expect minute wave v to end midway within this channel most likely, or to find support at the lower edge if it gets down there. When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then minor wave 3 should be over and minor wave 4 should be underway.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Within minute wave v no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 1,488.13.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Subminuette waves iii and iv within minuette wave (iii) are now complete. The final fifth wave downwards needs to complete minuette wave (iii). When that is done we should expect a relatively shallow fourth wave correction for minuette wave (iv) which should begin sometime over the next week.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 2.23 short of equality with micro wave 1.

Ratios within micro wave 3 of subminuette wave iii are: submicro wave (3) is 4.3 short of 2.618 the length of submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1).

Ratios within micro wave 5 of subminuette wave iii are: submicro wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is just 0.36 short of 0.236 the length of submicro wave (3).

Within subminuette wave iv there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Ratios within micro wave A of subminuette wave iv are: submicro wave (3) is just 0.24 longer than 4.236 the length of submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of submicro waves (1) or (3).

Within micro wave C of subminuette wave iv there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between submicro waves (1), (3) and (5).

A parallel channel drawn about the zigzag of subminuette wave iv is clearly breached by downwards movement indicating the correction is over.

Within minuette wave (iii) there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves i and iii. At 1,329 subminuette wave v would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about minuette wave (iii). Draw the first trend line from the highs of subminuette waves ii to iv (you can see subminuette wave ii on the daily chart) then place a parallel copy upon the low of subminuette wave iii. If price moves below the target expect it to find support at the lower edge of the channel.

Within subminuette wave v no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,419.78.

When minuette wave (iii) is complete then the invalidation point must move up to the low of minuette wave (i) at 1,456.39. The following fourth wave correction may not move back into minuette wave (i) price territory.

 

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th May, 2013

Last week’s analysis of gold expected downwards movement to a target for the week at 1,416. So far price has reached 28.74 below the target.

Price is on track to meet the first target on the daily chart at 1,276.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed its middle.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i, ii, iii and iv are complete. Minute wave v has just begun. This was confirmed this week with a clear channel breach of the small channel I had containing the upwards zigzag of minute wave iv on last week’s chart.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 3.91 longer than 0.236 the length of minuette wave (iii). Minuette wave (v) is slightly truncated.

At 1,276 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the orthodox length of minute wave i. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii I expect we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Draw a channel about minor wave 3 using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minute waves ii and iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave iii. Expect minute wave v to end midway within this channel most likely, or to find support at the lower edge if it gets down there. When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then minor wave 3 should be over and minor wave 4 should be underway.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Within minute wave v no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 1,488.13.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Despite movement below the target for subminuette wave iii the structure is incomplete. The target was calculated at 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. Subminuette wave iii has passed 1.618 and is very close to 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i. It may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i. Ratios of actionary waves within it may be used to calculate the target when we have the ends of micro waves 3 and 4.

Ratios within micro wave 1 are: submicro wave (3) is 0.58 longer than 4.236 the length of submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 3.95 longer than 1.618 the length of submicro wave (3).

Ratios within submicro wave (3) of micro wave 1 are: minuscule wave 3 is 1.6 longer than equality with minuscule wave 1, and minuscule wave 5 is 0.26 short of 0.382 the length of minuscule wave 1.

Ratios within submicro wave (5) of micro wave 1 are: minuscule wave 3 is 0.90 short of 1.618 the length of minuscule wave 1, and minuscule wave 5 is 1.23 longer than equality with minuscule wave 1.

Within micro wave 3 submicro wave (3) is 4.10 short of 2.618 the length of submicro wave (1) (this is a 7.2% variation, I consider less than 10% acceptable).

Ratios within submicro wave (3) of micro wave 3 are: minuscule wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minuscule wave 1, and minuscule wave 5 is 0.93 short of 0.618 the length of minuscule wave 1.

At 1,357 micro wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of micro wave 1. This target should be met within the week.

Draw a channel about micro wave 3 using Elliott’s first channeling technique. Expect upwards movement for submicro wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel. Expect submicro wave (5) to end either midway within the channel or to find support at the lower edge.

When subminuette wave iii is complete the following correction for subminuette wave iv should last about one session and may not move back into subminuette wave i price terrotory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,441.48.

 

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th May, 2013

Last week’s analysis of gold expected downwards movement. We have seen some downwards movement, but before price moved lower a breach of 1,485.49 invalidated the hourly wave count.

Price remains below the invalidation point on the daily wave count. I have adjusted the wave count to see better proportions within this third wave. This affects targets.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Last week’s analysis saw upwards movement from the low at 1,321.86 as a fourth wave at minuette degree. This now looks too much out of proportion for the daily chart; it no longer has the right look. I have moved the degree of labeling for this correction up one degree.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed its middle.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i, ii and iii are complete. Minute wave iv is most likely complete.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 3.91 longer than 0.236 the length of minuette wave (iii). Minuette wave (v) is slightly truncated.

At 1,261 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii I expect we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Draw a channel about minor wave 3 using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minute waves ii and iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave iii. Expect minute wave v to end midway within this channel most likely, or to find support at the lower edge if it gets down there. When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then minor wave 3 should be over and minor wave 4 should be underway.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

If minute wave iv continues further it may not move back into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,555.16.

Draw a small parallel channel about minute wave iv. Draw the first trend line from the truncated end of minute wave iii to the low of minuette wave (b). Place a parallel copy upon the high of minuette wave (a). This channel shows where price found support and resistance during the upwards movement of minute wave iv very nicely. Copy this channel over to the hourly chart.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The higher green trend line is the lower edge of the channel copied over from the daily chart. Create another parallel copy and place it upon the low of submineutte wave i downwards. This third trend line shows where price is finding support over the last couple of days. When this trend line is breached by downwards movement I will have more confidence in the target here.

Within minute wave iv there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Minuette wave (b) subdivides into a combination: flat – X – zigzag.

Ratios within minuette wave (c) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.87 longer than 0.382 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii of minute wave (c) are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.04 short of equality with micro wave 1.

Ratios within micro wave 3 of subminuette wave iii of minuette wave (c) are: submicro wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 0.34 short of 0.618 the length of submicro wave (3).

Within the new downwards trend ratios are:

There is no Fibonacci ratio between submicro waves a and c within minuette wave (ii).

Within subminuette wave i there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between micro waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within micro wave 3 are: submicro wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 0.12 short of equality with submicro wave (3).

Within subminuette wave ii there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Ratios within micro wave C are: submicro wave (3) is 1.95 longer than 1.618 the length of submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 1.13 longer than equality in length with submicro wave (1).

At 1,416 subminuette wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. This target should be met about mid next week (or earlier).

If subminuette wave ii continues further it may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,479.05.

If this wave count is invalidated with upwards movement then it may be minute wave iv moving higher as a double zigzag or double combination. The invalidation point on the hourly chart would move up to the same point as on the daily chart at 1,555.16.

 

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st May, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected price to continue to rise to a short term target at 1,451. Price did move higher but has exceeded the target by $34.49. The channel on the hourly chart has remained very useful. While price continued higher it remained within the channel. With this channel now clearly breached I expect the upwards correction is now over and the downwards trend has resumed.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed the middle of it.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i and ii are complete and minute wave iii is nearing its end.

At 1,273 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. Within minute wave iii at 1,284 minuette wave (v) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii) I expect we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (iii) or (i).

We may now draw a channel about minute wave iii using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minuette waves (ii) and (iv), then place a parallel copy upon the low of minuette wave (iii). Expect minuette wave (v) to end midway within this channel most likely, or to find support at the lower edge if it gets down there. When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then minute wave iii should be over and minute wave iv should be underway.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

When minute wave iii is complete then the following correction for minute wave iv may not move back into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,555.16.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minute wave iii minuette wave iv may have ended during the last week, $34.49 above the target but well within allowable limits. Price has remained well below the invalidation point at 1,540.24; this fourth wave has not entered the first wave price territory.

Because this correction subdivides as a triple zigzag it cannot continue further. If my analysis of this as a triple is correct then minuette wave (iv) is over and minuette wave (v) downwards has begun.

Within the third zigzag of the triple labeled subminuette wave z there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

With the strong trend channel breach of the best fit channel containing minuette wave (iv) it looks likely that the upwards correction is over and the next wave down has begun.

So far movement from the end of minuette wave (iv) is very choppy and overlapping, suggesting a leading diagonal. The diagonal is expanding. Within the diagonal micro wave 4 should overlap micro wave 1 price territory, but may not move beyond the end of micro wave 2. Within a leading diagonal subwaves 2 and 4 must be zigzags, and subwaves 1, 3 and 5 are commonly zigzags but may also be impulses. A leading diagonal may not have a truncated fifth wave. This structure fits all rules and guidelines for a leading diagonal.

Following a leading diagonal in a first wave position we should expect a deep second wave correction. I would expect subminuette wave ii is most likely subdividing as a zigzag and may end above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of subminuette wave i at 1,468.41. At 1,474 micro wave C would reach equality in length with micro wave A.

Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated at minuette wave degree with movement above 1,485.49.