GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th May, 2013

Last week’s analysis of gold expected downwards movement to a target for the week at 1,416. So far price has reached 28.74 below the target.

Price is on track to meet the first target on the daily chart at 1,276.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed its middle.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i, ii, iii and iv are complete. Minute wave v has just begun. This was confirmed this week with a clear channel breach of the small channel I had containing the upwards zigzag of minute wave iv on last week’s chart.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 3.91 longer than 0.236 the length of minuette wave (iii). Minuette wave (v) is slightly truncated.

At 1,276 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the orthodox length of minute wave i. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii I expect we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Draw a channel about minor wave 3 using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minute waves ii and iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave iii. Expect minute wave v to end midway within this channel most likely, or to find support at the lower edge if it gets down there. When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then minor wave 3 should be over and minor wave 4 should be underway.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Within minute wave v no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 1,488.13.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Despite movement below the target for subminuette wave iii the structure is incomplete. The target was calculated at 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. Subminuette wave iii has passed 1.618 and is very close to 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i. It may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i. Ratios of actionary waves within it may be used to calculate the target when we have the ends of micro waves 3 and 4.

Ratios within micro wave 1 are: submicro wave (3) is 0.58 longer than 4.236 the length of submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 3.95 longer than 1.618 the length of submicro wave (3).

Ratios within submicro wave (3) of micro wave 1 are: minuscule wave 3 is 1.6 longer than equality with minuscule wave 1, and minuscule wave 5 is 0.26 short of 0.382 the length of minuscule wave 1.

Ratios within submicro wave (5) of micro wave 1 are: minuscule wave 3 is 0.90 short of 1.618 the length of minuscule wave 1, and minuscule wave 5 is 1.23 longer than equality with minuscule wave 1.

Within micro wave 3 submicro wave (3) is 4.10 short of 2.618 the length of submicro wave (1) (this is a 7.2% variation, I consider less than 10% acceptable).

Ratios within submicro wave (3) of micro wave 3 are: minuscule wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minuscule wave 1, and minuscule wave 5 is 0.93 short of 0.618 the length of minuscule wave 1.

At 1,357 micro wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of micro wave 1. This target should be met within the week.

Draw a channel about micro wave 3 using Elliott’s first channeling technique. Expect upwards movement for submicro wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel. Expect submicro wave (5) to end either midway within the channel or to find support at the lower edge.

When subminuette wave iii is complete the following correction for subminuette wave iv should last about one session and may not move back into subminuette wave i price terrotory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,441.48.