Monthly Archives: June 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th June, 2013

Last analysis expected more downwards movement. This is what happened, but price moved lower faster than expected: the target zone I had thought was about six weeks away at 1,232 to 1,216 was met in just one week.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2), and possibly also (3), are complete.

Intermediate wave (3) is 10.48 longer than 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 is 21.24 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 6.08 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) may last three or more weeks and is most likely to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 1,425.37, which is just above the fourth wave of one lesser degree. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then this target will change.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Ratios within minor wave 5 are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is 1.91 longer than 0.146 the length of minute wave iii.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 3.50 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Within minuette wave (iii) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between subminuette waves i, iii and v.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 1.9 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.43 longer than 0.618 the length of micro wave 3.

Ratios within minuette wave (v) of minute wave iii are: subminuette wave iii is 1.96 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 2.63 short of equality with subminuette wave iii.

I have drawn a channel about minor wave 5. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy to contain all of the movement within minuette wave (v). When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then we shall have some confirmation that minor wave 5 is over, and so intermediate wave (3) should be also over.

There are thirteen possible corrective structures for intermediate wave (4). At this very early stage it is impossible to say which structure will unfold. We can be sure it will contain a lot of choppy, overlapping and difficult to analyse movement. It may contain a new price extreme beyond the start of intermediate wave (4), below 1,221.88, so there is no lower invalidation point.

 

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th June, 2013

Last analysis expected the completion within one or two days of a small second wave correction and thereafter a trend change to the downside during the week. Downwards movement was expected to show an increase in momentum which is what we have seen in the last 24 hours.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 are complete.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1). At 1,216 minor wave 5 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This gives a $16 target zone which should be about 6 weeks away.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target.

Within minor wave 5 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,423.91.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave 4 I have this week moved the degree of labeling up one degree. Minute waves i and ii are complete.

Minute wave iii is incomplete. At 1,300.94 it would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. This target may be reached within another five days or so.

When minute wave iii is complete we can draw a parallel channel about this new downwards wave. It is too early to do that yet.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (iii) is incomplete. It may be finished within a few days. The following correction for minuette wave (iv) may not move back into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,374.61.

 

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th June, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected a triangle to complete and a sharp upwards thrust to follow it. The triangle did complete and remained valid as price remained above 1,388.88. The sharp upward thrust did happen but it did not reach the expectation of 1,475. A subsequent breach of the parallel channel indicated a trend change.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1, 2 and 3 are complete. Minor wave 4 is now probably complete also.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1). At 1,216 minor wave 5 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This gives a $16 target zone which should be about 6 weeks away.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

A small parallel channel drawn about minor wave 4 is now clearly breached by downwards movement. This is an indication that minor wave 4 should be over and minor wave 5 should not be underway.

Three is the maximum number of corrective structures within a multiple and so far three structures have unfolded within minor wave 4. If my analysis of this fourth wave correction is correct then we should not see movement above 1,423.91.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minor wave 4 ended with a clear three wave structure upwards for a final zigzag in the multiple. Thereafter, the channel containing it is clearly breached by downwards movement.

So far we have a clear five down on the hourly chart. This is further confirmation that we have seen a trend change.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is just 0.75 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.71 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

So far minuette wave (ii) looks like it is unfolding as a simple zigzag. Within it subminuette wave a is a clear five wave structure.

Ratios within subminuette wave a are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.98 longer than 0.618 the length of micro wave 1.

I would expect subminuette wave b to breach the small channel containing submineutte wave a. Subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,365.91.

Subminuette wave b should unfold as a three wave structure.

Thereafter, subminuette wave c upwards should unfold as a five and is highly likely to make an new high above the end of subminuette wave a at 1,395.02. It may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i) at 1,401.75.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,410.92.

Minuette wave (ii) may be completed within another one or two days. We may see a trend change back to the downside during the next week, before next analysis. The next wave down is a third wave so we should see some increase in downwards momentum.

When minuette wave (ii) can be seen as a complete three wave structure the lower short term invalidation point no longer applies.

 

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th June, 2013

Last week’s analysis had two wave counts. The main wave count was invalidated with movement above 1,402.23. The alternate wave count expected more upwards movement for a fourth wave correction at minor degree.

This week I have just the one wave count for you. This correction is unlikely to be complete. We should see further upwards movement.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1, 2 and 3 are complete. Minor wave 4 is incomplete.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,625.95.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

I have considered several possibilities for minor wave 4: a single zigzag with one of the subwaves (either minute wave a or c) a diagonal, or a double zigzag, or a double combination. The only structure which fits is a triple zigzag. So although this is rare it must be what is unfolding.

The purpose of triple zigzags is to deepen a correction when the first one (or two) zigzags did not move price deep enough. This is what is happening here, the structure should trend upwards, which it is.

Within this triple zigzag we have excellent alternation between the two X waves. The first minute wave x is an expanded flat correction. The second minute wave x is unfolding as an unmistakeable contracting triangle.

The triangle for minute wave x is almost complete. When minuette wave (e) within it is over we should expect a sharp upwards thrust for gold as the final third zigzag in the triple unfolds.

At 1,475 minor wave 4 would end at the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 3.

A parallel channel may be drawn about minor wave 4 so far as a best fit. When this channel is very clearly breached by upwards movement then we may have had a trend change.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change.