GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th June, 2013

Last analysis expected more downwards movement. This is what happened, but price moved lower faster than expected: the target zone I had thought was about six weeks away at 1,232 to 1,216 was met in just one week.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2), and possibly also (3), are complete.

Intermediate wave (3) is 10.48 longer than 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 is 21.24 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 6.08 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) may last three or more weeks and is most likely to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 1,425.37, which is just above the fourth wave of one lesser degree. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then this target will change.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Ratios within minor wave 5 are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is 1.91 longer than 0.146 the length of minute wave iii.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 3.50 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Within minuette wave (iii) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between subminuette waves i, iii and v.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 1.9 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.43 longer than 0.618 the length of micro wave 3.

Ratios within minuette wave (v) of minute wave iii are: subminuette wave iii is 1.96 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 2.63 short of equality with subminuette wave iii.

I have drawn a channel about minor wave 5. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy to contain all of the movement within minuette wave (v). When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then we shall have some confirmation that minor wave 5 is over, and so intermediate wave (3) should be also over.

There are thirteen possible corrective structures for intermediate wave (4). At this very early stage it is impossible to say which structure will unfold. We can be sure it will contain a lot of choppy, overlapping and difficult to analyse movement. It may contain a new price extreme beyond the start of intermediate wave (4), below 1,221.88, so there is no lower invalidation point.