Monthly Archives: August 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th August, 2013

At the hourly chart level Gold has behaved as expected, continuing lower for a fourth wave correction. The target was 1,401. So far price has reached down to 1,402.63, but it cannot be confirmed that this correction is over. The hourly chart will be shown at the end of this analysis with a brief explanation.

Today I will focus the analysis on the monthly charts, at super cycle degree. I will also compare Gold to Silver.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold – Monthly Chart – Super Cycle Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Monthly - Super Cycle 2013

At super cycle degree for gold it looks like we have either seen the end of a long grand super cycle wave, or are close to the end. The key is the final fifth wave up at super cycle degree–is this structure complete or not? Is the recent downwards movement cycle wave IV within super cycle wave V, or is super cycle wave V over?

The next two monthly charts for gold will look at two possible interpretations for this structure. The wave count with the best fit and best Fibonacci ratios would be the most likely.

In comparison to silver we can see that these two markets do not always turn together. They are close, but not at the same time. Sometimes there is a difference of several months, and in the case of the 1990’s low for both markets gold turned 6 years and 5 months after silver found its low. In the case of the all time high gold turned 5 months after silver.

Silver appears to precede Gold. For this reason I have no problem with two wave counts for these markets that sees Silver having already completed a structure which Gold is yet to see unfold.

Although overall at the monthly chart level these two markets have similar looks, they are not the same. The wave structure must be different if the highs and lows are different.

Silver – Monthly Chart – Super Cycle Wave Count.

Silver Elliott Wave Chart Monthly - Super Cycle 2013

This chart is provided for comparison to the gold chart above. The highs and lows of both markets are highlighted on both charts.

This wave count for silver expects a new low to be formed before gold gets there. Which would fit with what has historically happened.

Screen shot 2013-08-29 at 11.32.19 PM

The table above compares Fibonacci ratios between the main and alternate wave counts for gold within cycle wave V. The main wave count is slightly better. Within the alternate there are no Fibonacci ratios within the middle of the third wave which is highly unusual for this market, and so must reduce the probability of the alternate wave count.

Gold – Main Monthly Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

This will remain my main monthly wave count for gold because it has better Fibonacci ratios, particularly in the middle of the third wave. It is extremely common for gold to have excellent Fibonacci ratios in its third waves.

This wave count is adjusted from my last published analysis of the monthly chart. I have moved cycle waves I and II up. Previously, they were in the position where intermediate waves (3) and (4) now occupy, within primary wave 5 of cycle wave I. This change gives better proportion to cycle wave II.

With this labeling when we draw a channel about the upwards impulse using Elliott’s first technique cycle wave IV has strongly overshot the channel. Sometimes fourth waves do this and when they do we redraw the channel using Elliott’s second technique, and this is how I’ve drawn it. With this there is an overshoot for the end of cycle wave III which is very common.

If cycle wave V upwards has just begun, it should last about a year or longer. At 1,961 cycle wave V would reach equality in length with cycle wave I.

Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory. This wave count would be invalidated with movement below 1,032.70.

Gold – Alternate Monthly Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Monthly Alternate 2013

Alternatively, it is possible that a grand super cycle wave I is complete and this recent downwards movement is the start of a grand super cycle wave II.

At this stage, because the first part of the correction subdivides into a three wave structure, the correction may be a flat or double, both of which allow for new price extremes above 1,921.15 (a new all time high). A flat would expect upwards movement from here to subdivide as a three for cycle wave b which must reach a minimum of 90% the length of cycle wave a at 1,847 or above.

Alternatively, it may be that cycle wave a is an incomplete impulse. If that is the case then upwards movement which began on 28th June, 2013, would be a fourth wave correction at primary wave degree. It may not move into what would be primary wave 1 price territory (labeled here as primary wave A) above 1,522.75.

Movement above 1,522.75 would confirm the downwards correction as a completed three wave structure. At that stage I would have confidence that price should keep rising to about 1,847 or above and may make new highs.

In the mid to long term this alternate wave count does not diverge from the main wave count. Close attention to the structure of the next wave upwards is required to determine which of these two monthly wave counts is correct; if it is a three wave corrective structure this alternate is correct, and if it is a five wave motive structure the main wave count is correct.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This hourly chart follows on directly from yesterday’s analysis.

Within minuette wave (iv) the structure may be complete, but it is also equally as likely that subminuette wave y may be an incomplete triangle.

Movement above the small parallel channel containing minuette wave (iv) would provide some confidence that minuette wave (iv) is over and minuette wave (v) has begun.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,384.60.

Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th August, 2013

Last analysis of silver was published on 5th May, 2013. It’s time to update this analysis. I will endeavor to update Silver for you once a week, time permitting.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Silver monthly 2013

At the monthly chart level the long rise for silver to the all time high at 49.51 looks like a completed five wave impulse. Because this lasted generations it may be a grand super cycle wave.

No matter what degree downwards movement is labeled, it is a correction and it is incomplete.

The current corrective structure is unfolding as a double zigzag. Primary wave W is a zigzag, and the double is joined by a correction in the opposite direction, a triangle labeled primary wave X. The second structure in the double has begun with a completed five wave structure downwards, and it is also unfolding as a zigzag. This corrective structure at cycle degree is a double zigzag.

The second zigzag of primary wave Y is incomplete.

Silver weekly 2013

Within the first zigzag in the double, primary wave W, intermediate wave (C) is just 0.67 longer than intermediate wave (A).

Primary wave X is a completed regular contracting triangle.

Primary wave Y is incomplete.

Silver daily 2013

Within primary wave Y downwards movement for intermediate wave (A) subdivides nicely into a five wave impulse.

Ratios within intermediate wave (A) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1, and minor wave 3 is just 0.01 short of 0.382 the length of minor wave 3.

Within intermediate wave (B) so far the structure may be unfolding as a zigzag. Minor wave A is an incomplete five wave impulse.

Upwards movement for minute wave iii within minor wave A is showing a strong increase in upwards momentum, indicating a third wave which indicates an impulse for minor wave A.

At 25.44 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

When minute wave iii is complete then minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.613.

If price moves below 20.613 then minor wave A subdivided into a three wave zigzag. At that stage we should expect minor wave B to reach down to at least 90% the length of minor wave A, and to be very likely to make a new low below the start of minor wave A at 18.215. Intermediate wave (B) then may unfold as a flat or combination.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th August, 2013

I am changing my wave count today at the daily chart level.

The short to mid term outlook is unchanged, and the subdivisions on the hourly chart remain the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Primary wave C may be complete. Primary wave C is 28.96 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Ratios within primary wave C are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (3) and (1), and intermediate wave (5) is 13.77 short of 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (1) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 is 24.72 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1 (a 6.8% variation; I consider less than 10% acceptable), and minor wave 5 is 11.74 longer than 0.382 the length of minor wave 3.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is 10.78 longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i.

Ratios within intermediate wave (5) are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 1.61 short of equality with minor wave 3.

A best fit parallel channel is so far clearly breached by upwards movement, no matter how the channel is drawn. This indicates a probable trend change.

Within the new upwards trend of cycle wave V, within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,315.92.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The subdivisions and degree of labeling for this hourly chart are the same as previous analysis.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (iii) is now complete and has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i). This means it is more than likely minuette wave (v) shall exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minuette waves (i) or (iii). When minuette wave (iv) has ended I can add to the target calculation for minute wave iii to end at minuette wave degree. I may be able to do that tomorrow for you.

At 1,401 subminuette wave c within minuette wave (iv) would reach equality with subminuette wave a. This would bring minuette wave (iv) to just below the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (iii).

Mineutte wave (iv) may also be deeper if it is to show alternation in depth with minuette wave (ii). Minuette wave (ii) was a shallow 43% of minuette wave (i). Minuette wave (iv) could end about 1,385.30, the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (iii).

Minuette wave (iv) may show alternation in structure. Minuette wave (ii) was time consuming zigzag, with a complicated subminuette wave b within it. Minuette wave (iv) may be a briefer simpler zigzag, or it may yet continue further as a flat, combination or triangle.

Minuette wave (iv) is so far showing up on the daily chart with a red candlestick. It may be close to completion, or it may last another one or two days at the most.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,384.60.

When minuette wave (iv) is completed then further upwards movement for minuette wave (v) should unfold. At 1,431 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Alternate Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

It remains possible that primary wave C is not over and requires on final fifth wave down. However, the size of intermediate wave (4) now is so much larger than intermediate wave (2) that this wave count no longer has the right look.

I would only now seriously consider it if the main wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,315.92.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

US Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th August, 2013

Movement above 110.56 has invalidated the main monthly wave count and confirmed the alternate. This upwards movement is not yet over.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil monthly 2013

Movement above 110.56 has confirmed this wave count.

Cycle wave b is not over and is completing a double zigzag, with primary wave X within it a contracting triangle.

I have adjusted the wave count within the triangle of primary wave X. It now fits nicely within the triangle trend lines and has a more typical look. Intermediate wave (E) undershoots the A-C trend line.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change, this may be where primary wave Y ends.

We should expect a continuation of upwards movement from oil for some weeks yet. There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

US Oil daily 2013

Within cycle wave Y intermediate wave (A) is a completed five wave impulse, intermediate wave (B) is a completed regular flat correction, and intermediate wave (C) is an incomplete impulse.

At 122.55 intermediate wave (C) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 120.84 minor wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3 is 0.95 longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

The structure within minor wave 5 is incomplete. It requires further upwards movement.

US Oil hourly 2013

Within minute wave iii the structure is incomplete. The middle of the third wave is nearing its end. Minuette wave (iii) is so far 0.17 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). It may not be over there though. It should be over soon, and when it is minuette wave (iv) should move price lower in very choppy overlapping movement.

Minuette wave (ii) was a relatively shallow 47% zigzag correction. Given the guideline of alternation we may expect minuette wave (iv) to be relatively deep. Minuette wave (iv) is likely to end within the price range of the fourth wave of one lesser degree, between 109.32 and 108.64.

When it is complete the upwards trend should resume.

At 119.03 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

If minuette wave (iii) moves higher then redraw the channel. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy upon the low of minuette wave (ii). Expect minuette wave (iv) may find support at the lower edge of this channel.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 107.35.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th August, 2013

Last analysis main wave count expected more upwards movement. The alternate was not confirmed with a red candlestick or any channel breach.

Again I have two wave counts for you today. They differ only in the degree of labeling for most recent movement. The price point which differentiates them is 1,384.60.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C within a cycle degree wave IV.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted a Fibonacci eight weeks and may now be complete. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) is shallower at 42%.

I would want to see some confirmation of this wave count before having confidence in it. For confirmation I will look for:

    1. A red candlestick for the current session.
    2. Movement below 1,384.60.
    3. Movement below the channel on the hourly chart.
    4. Movement below the channel on the daily chart.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. At 1,101 intermediate wave (5) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (5) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,423.92.

*There is a problem with the data I am using from FXCM. On the daily chart the price point at which minute wave iii within minor wave C within intermediate wave (4) begins is 1,315.92 (14th August, 2013). This makes minute wave iii 68.71 in length. Minute wave v is 68.64 in length, just shorter, so the core Elliott wave rule that states a third wave may not be the shortest is met. However, on the hourly chart there is no low of 1,315.92 on 14th August, 2013, instead the low there is 1,316.05. This makes minute wave iii as seen on the hourly chart (below) 68.54 in length, which is 0.10 shorter than minute wave v (and minute wave i is 71.20 long).

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This wave count agrees with MACD, the strongest momentum is within the third wave. There is classic divergence with price trending higher and MACD trending lower, indicating a possible trend change here.

Within minute wave v there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v).

Draw a parallel channel about minor wave C. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minute wave iii. When this channel is clearly breached we shall have some confirmation of a trend change.

Movement below 1,384.60 would invalidate the alternate below and provide some price confirmation of a trend change.

Alternate Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily alternate 2013

If we simply move the degree of labeling within recent movement within intermediate wave (4) all down one degree, this structure may be incomplete.

Minor wave C may be incomplete and minute wave iii within it may be extending.

This wave count resolves the problem of the length of minute wave iii within minor wave C being 0.10 too short on the hourly chart, but it still leaves the problem of inaccurate data!

At 1,441 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave C may overshoot the parallel channel containing intermediate wave (4).

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly alternate 2013

If minute wave iii within minor wave C is extending, then within it minuette wave (iii) is just 0.06 longer than equality with minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (iv) is likely to be incomplete. It may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,384.60.

We may draw a parallel channel about minute wave iii: draw the first trend line from the highs of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy upon the low of minuette wave (ii). Expect minuette wave (v) to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.

This wave count would be confirmed with movement above 1,384.60.

The biggest problem with this wave count, and the reason why it is my alternate, is that it does not agree with MACD. The first wave within minute wave iii has stronger momentum than the middle of the third wave.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th August, 2013

Last analysis of gold expected an end to a fourth wave correction to be followed by a sharp upwards thrust to about 1,399.73. This is what happened.

The question now is, is this intermediate degree correction over? Have we just seen a trend change back to the downside for gold?

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C within a cycle degree wave IV.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted eight weeks and may now be almost complete. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag.

When the structure on the hourly chart is complete then we need to look for confirmation that intermediate wave (4) is over. If this current daily candlestick closes down, is red, that shall be a strong indicator of a trend change.

When we have confirmation on the hourly chart that we have seen a trend change then I will add to the target calculation for primary wave C at intermediate wave degree. I may be able to do this for you tomorrow.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This hourly chart a good overall look because within minute wave v minuette waves (ii) and (iv) are nicely in proportion.

Draw a parallel channel about minor wave C using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the low of minute wave ii (you can see this on the daily chart) to minute wave iv, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minute wave iii. Expect minute wave v to end mid way within this channel. When this channel is breached by downwards movement we shall have trend channel confirmation that minor wave C is over, and intermediate wave (4) is extremely likely to be over.

Minute wave iv ended as a zigzag with a slightly truncated C wave, not as a triangle. Within the zigzag subminuette wave b was a time consuming double combination.

Minute wave iii is slightly shorter than minute wave i. This limits minute wave v to no longer than equality with minute wave iii at 1,423.84.

At 1,416 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

If minuette wave (iv) is not over and continues further sideways then it may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This hourly wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,381.94.

Alternate Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

It is possible to see a completed five wave impulse for minute wave v. We may have just seen a trend change at intermediate wave degree.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

Ratios within minor wave C are: minute wave iii is 2.62 short of equality with minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

Ratios within minute wave v are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.23 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

We need to see confirmation of this trend change before having confidence in it.

Firstly, movement below 1,381.94 would provide initial indication this wave count may be correct.

Second, movement below the parallel channel here on the hourly chart would provide trend channel confirmation that minor wave C is over and the next wave is underway.

Third, movement below the parallel channel on the daily chart would provide channel confirmation that the zigzag of intermediate wave (4) should be over.

Finally, price movement below 1,348.27 would provide confirmation that the upwards movement labeled intermediate wave (4) is a three wave structure and is corrective, because at that stage downwards movement may not be a fourth wave correction within an unfolding impulse upwards.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement from gold towards a short term target at 1,431. Price did move higher but has fallen well short of the target.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C within a cycle degree wave IV.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted eight weeks and it is incomplete. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag because minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse and minor wave B subdivides as a zigzag. Minor wave C is incomplete.

At 1,441 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. This target should be met in another week or two.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, and it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Upwards movement completed a third wave, minute wave iii, within minor wave C. Minute wave iii is 2.62 short of equality with minute wave i. This limits minute wave v to come to no longer than equality with minute wave iii which was 68.58 in length.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) is 1.80 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

Within minuette wave (v) of minute wave iii are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.40 longer than 0.382 the length of subminuette wave iii.

The movement within minute wave iv may be a regular contracting triangle unfolding. It looks like minuette wave (b) within it is completed, and because this is less than 90% the length of minuette wave (a) it cannot be a flat. Because minuette wave (b) unfolds as a double zigzag a combination is unlikely, because the X wave within a combination may only subdivide into a simple three and may not itself be a combination.

If this analysis is correct for minute wave iv then we should expect more very choppy overlapping sideways movement for another day to three as the triangle completes. Following this we should see a sharp upwards thrust as minute wave v completes, which may not be longer than 68.58.

For the triangle to remain valid minuette wave (c) may not move below the end of minuette wave (a) at 1,352.35 and minuette wave (d) may not move above 1,379.29. Although, if the triangle is a barrier triangle then minuette wave (d) may move very slightly above 1,379.29, as long as the B-D trend line is essentially flat. The upper invalidation point for the triangle is not as firm as the lower invalidation point.

Minute wave iv may also be unfolding as an expanding triangle, but the rarity of this structure means the probability is very low.

Minute wave iv may also be unfolding as a combination and the X wave within it may be incomplete. It may also be a more time consuming flat correction with the B wave within it incomplete. I will consider these other possibilities if they show themselves.

What’s clear is this correction is incomplete.

When minute wave iv is complete then I will recalculate the target for minor wave C to end. I cannot do that for you yet.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,344.26.

When minute wave iv is completed the lower invalidation point no longer applies.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis of US Oil expected some more upwards movement to end just above 108.76 but not above 108.92. Price moved higher and turned at 108.17, just 0.59 short of the target.

This week I expect an increase in downwards momentum for Oil.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Within a cycle degree c wave downwards primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete, with the start of intermediate wave (3) at 108.92.

There is a clear evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change here.

At 55.09 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minuette wave (ii) completed as a rare running flat; subminuette wave c is slightly (0.59 cents) truncated. The subdivisions all fit perfectly, particularly the most important check, that of subminuette wave b as a three wave structure. It is very difficult to see this movement as a five.

Subminuette wave c ended almost right on the upper edge of the parallel channel containing this running flat of minuette wave (ii).

Within the running flat of minuette wave (ii) subminuette wave c is 0.15 short of equality with subminuette wave a.

Ratios within subminuette wave c are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.28 short of 1.618 the length of micro wave 1.

Micro wave 5 subdivides into an imperfect ending contracting diagonal, imperfect because the third wave within it is the longest. All the subwaves correctly subdivide into single zigzags.

If this wave count is correct we should see some increase in downwards momentum over the next week.

At 98.07 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). If price keeps falling through this first target, or if when it gets there the structure is incomplete, then the next target is at 91.83 where minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.17.

 

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th August, 2013

Movement above 1,320.86 early in this last week confirmed the main hourly wave count which expected more upwards movement. This week I have just the one wave count for you.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C within a cycle degree wave IV.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about four to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. So far it is just over four weeks. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag because so far minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse.

At the high labeled minor wave A within intermediate wave (4) this movement looks strongly like a five wave impulse on the daily chart. If this is correct then intermediate wave (4) cannot be over here and must continue. I have tried to see if this can subdivide as a double zigzag. It can, just, but the wave count looks forced and must include a rare running flat.

At 1,441 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. This target should be met in a bout a week or so. If minor wave B continues lower then this target must move correspondingly lower.

Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave C only minute wave i is complete. Minute wave ii is most likely to be complete as a single zigzag structure and just 39% of minute wave i. Within minute wave ii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (c) and (a). There is alternation between them: minuette wave (a) was a contracting diagonal and minuette wave (c) an expanding diagonal.

Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.84 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) of minute wave i are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.40 short of equality with subminuette wave iii.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (i) is close to completion. Within it subminuette wave iii is 2.75 short of 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

At 1,431 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

The channel drawn here is an acceleration channel. I would expect to see an increase in upwards momentum over this next week and this channel may be breached by upwards movement.

When minuette wave (i) is complete then minuette wave (ii) should move price lower and may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,316.05.

If price moves below 1,316.05 then minuette wave (ii) is continuing. The invalidation point must then move down to the start of minute wave i at 1,273.06.

 

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected downwards movement to a short term target at 98.66 or 92.42. Price did move lower to make a new low at 102.24 but then turned back upwards. Price remains below the invalidation point on the daily chart and the wave count remains valid.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Within a cycle degree c wave downwards primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete, with the start of intermediate wave (3) at 108.92.

There is a clear evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change here.

At 55.09 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

I have reanalysed the upwards movement labeled now subminuette wave a within minuette wave (ii) as a double zigzag. The previous analysis of a single zigzag here did not look right, with a very short A wave and a very long C wave with no Fibonacci ratio between them.

The downwards movement labeled here submineutte wave b fits best as a three wave zigzag. I cannot see a five wave structure in here. This is an indication that minuette wave (ii) may not be over and may be continuing as a flat correction. Within it subminuette wave c is an incomplete five wave impulse.

If subminuette wave c fails to end at or above 108.76 then the structure will be a running flat. It is likely that subminuette wave c will end a little above 108.76, or very close to it. There is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves 3 and 1, with micro wave 3 longer by 0.60.

There is another possibility that minuette wave (ii) was over as a double zigzag at the high labeled subminuette wave a at 108.76, and movement from this point is a first and second wave of a leading diagonal for the start of minuette wave (iii). The expected direction and invalidation point is the same (I will not chart this option this week).

When we see price move below 104.35 then downwards movement may not be a fourth wave correction within subminuette wave c and so subminuette wave c and minuette wave (ii) must be over. At that stage I would expect that a third wave downwards is unfolding.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

 

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected upwards movement from gold for the week. The hourly wave count was invalidated and price has moved lower, remaining above the invalidation point on the daily chart. Downwards movement is most likely a continuation of minor wave B.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about four to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. So far it is just over four weeks. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag because so far minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse.

At the high labeled minor wave A within intermediate wave (4) this movement looks strongly like a five wave impulse on the daily chart. If this is correct then intermediate wave (4) cannot be over here and must continue. I have tried to see if this can subdivide as a double zigzag. It can, just, but the wave count looks forced and must include a rare running flat.

At 1,441 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. This target should be met in a bout a week or so. If minor wave B continues lower then this target must move correspondingly lower.

Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 0.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minor wave B was not over last week. It continued further as a double zigzag. The subdivisions here within the first zigzag are the labeled the same as last week.

Within the second zigzag of the double labeled minute wave y minuette wave (c) is 3.43 short of equality with minuette wave (a).

I would have confidence in this wave count with price movement above 1,320.86. At that stage the alternate below would be invalidated.

Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,273.06.

If this wave count is invalidated then the alternate below should be used.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

It is possible that minor wave B is an incomplete single zigzag if minute wave c within it is unfolding as an ending diagonal which is incomplete. The subdivisions are the same on both hourly wave counts up to this point.

Within the ending diagonal of minute wave c within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,320.86.

This wave count would expect a few more days of downwards movement.

 

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected downwards movement for the week, with a second wave correction to come. The first wave was already over and the second wave unfolded as a very deep zigzag, ending just below the invalidation point on the daily chart. The hourly chart was invalidated.

The wave count remains mostly the same this week.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Within a cycle degree c wave downwards primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete, with the start of intermediate wave (3) at 108.92.

There is a clear evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change here.

At 55.09 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The low at 102.68 was the end of a five wave impulse.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.20 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 0.11 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.11 short of equality with micro wave 1.

A parallel channel drawn about minuette wave (i) using Elliott’s first technique perfectly shows where subminuette wave iv found resistance. This impulse is textbook perfect. I wish I had seen it last week!

Minuette wave (ii) is a very deep sharp zigzag. Because there is no further room left for upwards movement if this wave count is correct then minuette wave (iii) must begin here. We should see an increase in downwards momentum over the next week for US Oil.

Minuette wave (ii) subdivides as a deep sharp zigzag with subminuette wave b an expanding triangle. There is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c.

Ratios within subminuette wave c of minuette wave (ii) zigzag are: micro wave 3 is 0.04 short of equality with micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.02 longer than 0.382 the length of micro wave 1.

At 98.66 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). Because minuette wave (ii) was so deep it is also fairly likely that minuette wave (iii) may reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i) at 92.42. If price keeps dropping through the first target then the second target is the next likely end.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

 

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st July, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected upwards movement for the week from gold. Price moved sideways before a sharp spike lower. Price has now turned back upwards.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted almost three weeks and I would expect it is incomplete.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then a target for it to end may be calculated.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the extreme within intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag or a double with the first structure a zigzag, because so far minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse. Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within intermediate wave (4) minor wave B was not over and continued further as a more time consuming zigzag with a triangle in the middle of minute wave b. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.

Redraw the parallel channel about intermediate wave (4) using Elliott’s technique on the daily chart and copy it over to the hourly chart. Expect any downwards movement to find support at the lower edge of this channel.

At 1,370 minor wave C would reach 0.382 the length of minor wave A. If at this point the structure within minor wave C is a complete five then it may end there. If the structure is incomplete about this point, or if price gets there and keeps rising, then the next calculated target is at 1,410 where minor wave C would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave A.

Within minor wave C minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,305.95.

When minor wave C may be seen as a compete five wave structure then we may expect an end to intermediate wave (4) and a resumption of the downwards trend for gold. At that stage a clear breach of the blue channel containing the zigzag for minor wave (4) would provide trend channel confirmation that the upwards zigzag is over and the next wave is underway. The next wave is most likely to be intermediate wave (5).