US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis of US Oil expected some more upwards movement to end just above 108.76 but not above 108.92. Price moved higher and turned at 108.17, just 0.59 short of the target.

This week I expect an increase in downwards momentum for Oil.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Within a cycle degree c wave downwards primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete, with the start of intermediate wave (3) at 108.92.

There is a clear evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change here.

At 55.09 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minuette wave (ii) completed as a rare running flat; subminuette wave c is slightly (0.59 cents) truncated. The subdivisions all fit perfectly, particularly the most important check, that of subminuette wave b as a three wave structure. It is very difficult to see this movement as a five.

Subminuette wave c ended almost right on the upper edge of the parallel channel containing this running flat of minuette wave (ii).

Within the running flat of minuette wave (ii) subminuette wave c is 0.15 short of equality with subminuette wave a.

Ratios within subminuette wave c are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.28 short of 1.618 the length of micro wave 1.

Micro wave 5 subdivides into an imperfect ending contracting diagonal, imperfect because the third wave within it is the longest. All the subwaves correctly subdivide into single zigzags.

If this wave count is correct we should see some increase in downwards momentum over the next week.

At 98.07 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). If price keeps falling through this first target, or if when it gets there the structure is incomplete, then the next target is at 91.83 where minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.17.