GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th September, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected more upwards movement for Wednesday from gold. This is not what happened. Although price moved lower it remains above the invalidation point on the hourly charts.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Primary wave C may be complete.

A best fit parallel channel is so far clearly breached by upwards movement, no matter how the channel is drawn. This indicates a probable trend change.

Cycle wave V should last between one to several years and is most likely to take price to new all time highs.

In the short term at 1,545 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Within the new upwards trend of cycle wave V, within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,344.26.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

With the deep downwards correction, which may now be just complete, this structure within minute wave v may be unfolding as an ending diagonal. An impulse is still possible, but at this stage it does not have as good a look on this hourly chart.

Within an ending diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide as zigzags, including the third wave. The fourth wave should overlap first wave price territory.

Minuette wave (ii) of the diagonal would most commonly correct to between 0.66 to 0.81 of minuette wave (i). At this stage minuette wave (ii) is a 75% correction of minuette wave (i). If minuette wave (ii) were to move lower it may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) at 1,374.14.

Minuette wave (iii) must make a new high above the end of minuette wave (i). It is unlikely to have a Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i). The ratios of subminuette waves a and c within it may be used to calculate a target; I cannot do that for you until subminuette wave b is completed.

Within minuette wave (i) there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c.

Within minuette wave (ii) subminuette wave c is 1.18 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

Alternate Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

This alternate wave count is identical to the main wave count up to the low labeled minute wave ii at 1,315.92.

Thereafter, this alternate looks at the possibility that minute wave iii is beginning with a series of first and second waves, and the middle strongest upwards movement is still ahead of us.

This alternate does not diverge from the main wave count in that it expects strong upwards movement, but this alternate expects a very strong increase in upwards momentum.

Within subminuette wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This alternate is invalidated with movement below 1,374.14.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

At the hourly chart level this alternate looks a little less likely today, with yet another two overlapping first and second waves.

At 1,506 subminuette wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Within micro wave 3 submicro wave (2) may not move beyond the start of submicro wave (1). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,384.60.