US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th September, 2013

Last analysis expected Oil to move higher for a final fifth wave. This is not what happened. Price moved sideways then lower to breach the invalidation point on the hourly chart. The daily chart remains valid.

The wave count remains mostly the same. A final fifth wave upwards is still required to complete this structure.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

Cycle wave b is incomplete, and is unfolding as a double zigzag. Primary wave X within it was a contracting triangle.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change, and this may be where primary wave Y ends.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles. A more reliable way to calculate a target for this to end is using the ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C) within the second zigzag of the double.

At 122.55 intermediate wave (C) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 120.84 minor wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

The trend lines for the contracting triangle shown on the monthly chart will cross over in 2 or 3 days time. The trend lines are shown at the bottom of this chart. Place an extended vertical line at this point and look for a trend change at that time. Be very careful to draw the triangle trend lines accurately from A to C and B to D of the triangle, as shown on the monthly chart.

Within the ending diagonal for minor wave 5, minute wave iv may not move below 103.51.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minute wave iv may have continued further sideways as a contracting triangle. Minuette wave (c) within the zigzag of minute wave iv breached the last invalidation point on last analysis hourly chart, which had expected minute wave iv to be over already.

Within the ending diagonal of minor wave 5 minute wave iv is most likely to be at least as long as minute wave iii because the diagonal is expanding. It is most likely upwards movement will move above 113.76.

Minute wave v must unfold as a zigzag. Within the zigzag minuette wave (b) may not move below the start of minuette wave (a). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 104.96.