Monthly Archives: October 2013

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th October, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement towards a target at 23.170 before some downwards movement for a correction. Price has moved higher to reach up to 23.088, just 0.08 short of the target.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Intermediate wave (B) is unfolding as a simple zigzag. Minor wave A subdivides as a five, and minor wave B is now a complete “three” (a double zigzag).

At 27.417 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave A lasted 43 days, and minor wave B lasted a Fibonacci 34 days. I would expect minor wave C to last between 34 and 43 days, or thereabouts.

The parallel channel drawn here is Elliott’s technique for a correction. Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. I will expect minor wave C to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel, and it is most likely to end there.

Within minor wave C minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This hourly chart shows all of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.145 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.023 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Within minute wave i there is good alternation between minuette waves (ii) and (iv): minuette wave (ii) was a shallow 41% flat correction, and minuette wave (iv) was a very shallow 28% contracting triangle.

A parallel channel drawn about the impulse of minute wave i using Elliott’s second technique is now clearly breached by downwards movement. This indicates that minute wave i should be over and minute wave ii should now be underway.

Minute wave ii may end about the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i, with the lower 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 21.496 being more likely.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This hourly chart shows most recent movement of minute wave ii in more detail.

So far to the downside I expect that minuette wave (a) is unfolding as an impulse. This suggests minute wave ii may be a zigzag. However, at this early stage in the correction there are still several structural possibilities for minute wave ii.

If minute wave ii unfolds as a zigzag then within it minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) above 23.088.

Overall for the next one to three days for Silver I would expect choppy, overlapping movement to end about either 22.104 or 21.496, favouring the lower target. When this correction is done I would expect upwards movement above 23.088 to new highs with an increase in upwards momentum as a third wave unfolds. This may begin before next analysis.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th October, 2013

Movement below 1,340.90 invalidated yesterday’s hourly wave count. I have gone back and re-analysed this recent upwards movement from 1,251.76 because something else must be happening.

The wave count at the daily chart level remains mostly the same. I have two hourly wave counts for you today which both expect the same movement next.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

The structure for primary wave 4 cannot be a flat correction, because what would be the B wave is well less than 90% of what would be the A wave. That is why I have labeled it as a double.

Because intermediate wave (X) is quite shallow I would expect primary wave 4 is most likely a double zigzag rather than a double combination. Double combinations move price sideways and their X waves are usually deeper than this one is. Double zigzags trend against the main direction, and their purpose is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag did not take price deep enough. So I will be expecting intermediate wave (Y) to subdivide as a zigzag and to take price comfortably above 1,433.83. It should last about 35 to 45 days or sessions in total.

Within the zigzag of intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B may move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,251.76.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minor wave A can be counted as a complete five wave impulse.

Ratios within minor wave A are: minute wave iii is 3.86 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is 3.43 short of equality with minute wave iii.

Within minor wave A minute wave ii is a flat and minute wave iv is a double combination, providing nice alternation.

This wave count agrees with MACD. The strongest upwards momentum is within the third wave, and the second and fourth waves correspond to MACD coming very close to, or touching, the zero line.

The channel drawn here is Elliott’s first technique. This channel is clearly breached by downwards movement. Minor wave A should be over and minor wave B should be close to completion now. I would expect minor wave B to end within the next few hours.

At 1,325 minute wave c within minor wave B would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a. This would bring minor wave B to just above the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave A.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,251.76.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

Alternatively, this downwards movement may be a fourth wave correction instead of a B wave.

This wave count does not agree with MACD though, which is why it is my alternate. I want to consider all possibilities, even those with a low probability. For this alternate the strongest upwards momentum is within the first wave of the third wave.

For this alternate minor wave A is incomplete. Minute wave iii is 2.90 short of 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

The target remains the same. At 1,325 minuette wave (c) within the zigzag of minute wave iv would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a). This would bring minute wave iv down to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,288.18.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th October, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement from gold for a deep second wave correction which is exactly what happened.

The wave count remains the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th October, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th October, 2013

Last analysis had a main wave count which was preferred, and expected more upwards movement. Price has moved higher.

I have only one wave count for you now; the alternate was invalidated.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th October, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th October, 2013

Analysis for Thursday had three alternate hourly wave counts, and one was invalidated on Friday. Two wave counts remain, and I must favour the main wave count. I will use the invalidation / confirmation price point to differentiate the two wave counts next week.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th October, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th October, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement for a correction. This is not what happened as price has moved higher.

The correction is still valid if it is a flat.

I have three hourly wave counts (one main and two alternates) for you after considering as many possibilities as I can see. I have provided confirmation and invalidation points to work with these three wave counts today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th October, 2013

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd October, 2013

Last analysis expected overall downwards movement for oil which is what has happened. The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

The bigger picture sees US Oil in a new downwards trend to last from one to several years. When I can see a clear five wave structure downwards on the daily chart I will have confidence in a trend change at cycle degree.

So far to the downside there is an almost completed five wave impulse down. The fifth wave is showing an overshoot of the parallel channel typical of commodities. When minute wave v completes minor wave 1 then I would expect upwards movement for a few days for minor wave 2.

The parallel channel drawn here about minor wave 1 is drawn first with a trend line from the lows of minute waves i to iii, then a parallel copy is placed upon the high of minute wave ii. When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then I would have confidence that minute wave i is completed and minute wave ii is underway.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 112.24.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart 6 Hourly 2013

Within minute wave v the structure is incomplete, I expect further downwards movement before a mid term trend change.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii. This makes it more likely that minute wave v would exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii. Minute wave v has passed equality with minute wave i, and has passed 0.618 the length of minute wave iii. The next likely ratio would be equality with minute wave iii at 94.46.

On the way down to this target there should be three small fourth wave corrections, and each successive fourth wave may not move back into its counterpart first wave price territory.

In the short term micro wave 4 may not move into micro wave 1 price territory. In the very short term this wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.11.

When micro waves 4 and 5 are completed then the short term invalidation point moves up to the low of subminuette wave i at 100.67.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd October, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected more upwards movement from gold before a correction. This is not what happened as price has moved a little lower, and the correction has already arrived.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd October, 2013

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd October, 2013

Last analysis for silver expected some more downwards movement towards a target at 20.326 before a minor degree trend change.

Price did move lower to 20.512, 0.186 short of the target, and has now clearly turned back upwards.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Intermediate wave (B) is unfolding as a simple zigzag. Minor wave A subdivides as a five, and minor wave B is now a complete “three” (a double zigzag).

At 27.417 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave A lasted 43 days, and minor wave B lasted a Fibonacci 34 days. I would expect minor wave C to last between 34 and 43 days, or thereabouts.

The parallel channel drawn here is Elliott’s technique for a correction. Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. I will expect minor wave C to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel, and it is most likely to end there.

Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

So far to the upside I expect that there is not quite a completed five wave impulse. The final fifth wave needs to complete.

Within minute wave i minuette wave (iii) is just 0.061 longer than equality with minuette wave (i).

Within minuette wave (v) subminuette wave iii is just 0.07 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

At 23.170 subminuette wave v within minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i.

When this fifth wave completes then I will expect a second wave correction for minute wave ii. This should show up on the daily chart as at least one red candlestick, maybe two. It may be deep, and the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of a completed minute wave i would be the most likely target for it to end.

I have drawn a best fit parallel channel about this upwards movement. When this channel is very clearly breached by downwards movement then I would expect that minute wave ii may have begun.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd October, 2013

Yesterday’s gold analysis expected the main wave count to be invalidated and the alternate confirmed, which is what happened with movement above 1,330.09.

The situation is clearer. I have just the one wave count now for you.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd October, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st October, 2013

Price has moved in a very small range, mostly sideways. Both wave counts remain valid. The analysis is changed very little.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Flat corrections are extremely common structures, particularly in fourth waves. Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat, and primary wave 4 may exhibit alternation if it is a more common expanded flat or a still common regular flat. Primary wave 4 may also exhibit alternation if it is shallow; primary wave 2 was very deep.

Primary wave 2 lasted 53 weeks. It would be likely that primary wave 4 will continue for longer to be better in proportion to primary wave 2.

It is most likely that primary wave 4 is not over and is unfolding as a large flat correction. Within the flat intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete double zigzag. Within the second zigzag of this double, labeled minute wave y, minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated at this stage and for some time yet with movement above 1,532.90.

Within the flat correction intermediate wave (B) must be at least 90% the length of intermediate wave (A). This wave count requires more downwards movement to this minimum at 1,205.74.

Within an expanded flat the B wave is 105% the length of the A wave, so this wave count allows for a new low as quite likely, because expanded flats are the most common type of flat.

Intermediate wave (B) would be about three or so weeks away from ending.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This wave count still does not have as good a fit as the alternate at the hourly chart level.

Movement for the new trading week may be two first and second waves. If this is correct then I would expect strong downwards momentum over the next 24 hours.

Micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,328.05.

Alternate Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

At this stage it is possible that Gold has completed its downwards wave and is in the early stages of the next wave up which would last at least a month.

If primary wave 4 is a double zigzag, then within the double intermediate wave (X) may be complete.

Within intermediate wave (X) minor wave A may be a completed leading expanding diagonal. However, within this structure the third wave is the longest, and minute wave ii is only 0.48 of minute wave i, less than the normal range of 0.66 to 0.81. These two problems reduce the probability of this wave count.

Within leading diagonals the second and fourth subwaves must subdivide into zigzags, and the first, third and fifth waves are most commonly zigzags but may also be impulses. If one of these three actionary waves is an impulse, it is usually the third wave.

Within the zigzag of intermediate wave (X) there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

Movement above 1,330.09 would invalidate the main wave count and confirm this alternate.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

I expect that the upwards impulse ended at the price high and this may be where a second wave correction began.

Within minute wave ii minuette waves (a) and (b) may be complete. Minuette wave (c) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a) at 1,298. This would bring minute wave ii down to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i.

Movement above 1,330.09 would invalidate the main wave count and confirm this alternate.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,251.76.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th October, 2013

Yesterday I published a new alternate. I had been searching for a viable bullish wave count to align with my wave count for silver.

Today I will publish both this alternate and the main wave count. I do not favour either, and the invalidation / confirmation point is very close by. We should have clarity within the next 24 hours.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th October, 2013

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Update – 17th October, 2013

At this stage my wave counts for Gold and Silver diverge strongly. At the daily chart level both gold and silver turn together, which means one of my wave counts would have to be wrong.

Continue reading Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Update – 17th October, 2013