US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st November, 2013

Last analysis on 23rd October had a short to mid term target at 94.46. Price reached down to 94.36, but the structure is incomplete and price should continue lower.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

The bigger picture sees US Oil in a new downwards trend to last from one to several years. When I can see a clear five wave structure downwards on the daily chart I will have confidence in a trend change at cycle degree. So far the downwards structure for the first wave at minor degree is incomplete, and I cannot say that there is yet a clear five down.

Typical of commodities, the fifth wave is showing an overshoot of the parallel channel. When minute wave v completes minor wave 1 then I would expect upwards movement for a several days to a couple of weeks or so for minor wave 2.

The parallel channel drawn here about minor wave 1 is drawn first with a trend line from the lows of minute waves i to iii, then a parallel copy is placed upon the high of minute wave ii. When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then I would have confidence that minute wave i is completed and minute wave ii is underway.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 112.24.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The 2 hourly chart shows all of minute wave v within minor wave 1. Within minute wave v the strongest downward momentum is within the third wave.

Within minuette wave (v) subminuette wave iii is 0.59 short of 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i. At 91.74 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave iii.

At 91.33 minuette wave (v) would reach 4.236 the length of minuette wave (iii).

When minuette wave (iii) is complete then minuette wave (iv) should move price higher and sideways for a day or two. Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement above 101.18.

When minuette wave (iv) is completed then I would expect more downwards movement for minuette wave (v) to complete minor wave 1 at all wave degrees.

Thereafter, I would expect a deep second wave correction to take price higher for weeks.