I expected downwards movement for Thursday’s session which is what happened. The short and mid term targets have not yet been met and remain the same.
At the daily chart level it looks like minute wave ii is incomplete and found resistance at the upper edge of the channel.
I would expect a little more downwards movement overall to complete an ending contracting diagonal, which should be followed by overall upwards movement. The target for downwards movement to end is just below 19.327. Downwards movement should not breach 18.585.
When there is a full daily candlestick above the channel and not touching the upper trend line then I would have confidence in a trend change.
Click on the chart below to enlarge.
The data for this market has many gaps, and the structures are not entirely typical looking Elliott wave structures. Although there are some Fibonacci ratios, they are not as prevalent as ratios within Gold. I am only able to import daily data, and I cannot check subdivisions on lower time frames.
While I expect my analysis of GDX will be useful to you, please note that it may not have as good an accuracy rate as what I can achieve for Gold.
Overall the structures and the wave count will be quite different from Gold. Although it looks these two markets have major turns together, the subdivisions within each are quite different.
Yesterday’s analysis expected more downwards movement which is not what happened. Movement above 1,261.92 invalidated the hourly wave counts.
Last analysis of US Oil on 17th December, 2013 expected more upwards movement towards a target at 103.21 to 104.42. Price moved higher as expected, but fell short of the target reaching only to 100.76.
The wave count remains the same.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
The bigger picture sees US Oil in a large second wave correction at super cycle degree. Second waves can and often do correct to very deep degrees. They may correct up to 100% the length of the first wave.
Super cycle wave II looks to be unfolding as a zigzag. Within it cycle wave a subdivides as a five wave impulse so the correction cannot be over there. Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.
Cycle wave b is now a complete double zigzag structure, which is atypical in that the second zigzag did not make a new price extreme beyond the first. However, that is how it subdivides.
Cycle wave c cannot reach equality with cycle wave a as that would take price below zero. Cycle wave c is unlikely to be only 0.618 the length of cycle wave a because that would see it truncated. The best way to calculate a downwards target for this wave would be to use the primary degree waves within it. I cannot do that until primary wave 4 is over.
A channel drawn about this downwards zigzag may show where it ends.
Cycle wave c is extremely likely to make a new low below 32.70 to avoid a truncation. Cycle wave c should last from one to several years. It may be either a simple impulse or an ending diagonal.
Minor wave 3 has most likely begun and is most likely extending. When third waves extend they usually clearly show their subdivisions on the daily chart. So far this wave count has a typical look.
I have drawn an acceleration channel about minor waves 1 and 2. I would expect minute wave ii to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel. It may move very slightly higher, but it should not breach the upper edge of the channel. Minor wave 3 should breach the lower edge of this channel.
In the first instance I would want to see movement below the small parallel channel about the upwards wave of minute wave ii before I have confidence that this correction is over and the next wave down is underway.
If minute wave ii is over here then at 82.26 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.
The targets for minor wave 3 remain the same. At 80.28 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. If price continues through this first target, or if when it is reached the structure is incomplete, then the second target is at 67.62 where minor wave 3 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.
Minute wave ii may move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.76.
Yesterday’s analysis expected more downwards movement which is exactly what has happened.
Summary: Price should continue to move lower overall with an increase in downwards momentum. The short term target at 1,217 may be met in one day, and the short / mid term target at 1,198 may be about two days away.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. To see a full explanation of my reasoning for expecting that primary wave 4 is not over and is continuing see this.
Movement above 1,277.97 has provided confirmation that primary wave 4 is not over. This upwards movement cannot be a fourth wave correction within primary wave 5 as it has now moved into what would be its counterpart first wave price territory. The wave down from the high labeled intermediate wave (W) to the low labeled intermediate wave (X) is now confirmed as a three wave structure. Primary wave 5 cannot subdivide as a three, it can only subdivide as a five.
Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat correction, and was a deep 68% correction of primary wave 1. In order to show alternation in structure primary wave 4 may be a zigzag, double zigzag, combination, triangle or even an expanded flat. We can rule out a zigzag because the first wave subdivides as a three. This still leaves several structural possibilities.
Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a combination or triangle in order to show structural alternation with the running flat of primary wave 2.
The downwards wave labeled intermediate wave (X) is 99% the length of the upwards wave labeled intermediate wave (W). Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because if it were it would be a regular flat. These have similar behaviour and a similar look to running flats, and so there would be little structural alternation between primary waves 2 and 4.
Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a combination rather than a double zigzag because of the depth of intermediate wave (X). Double combinations take up time and move price sideways, and their X waves can be very deep. Double zigzags are different because their purpose is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough, so their X waves are not normally very deep. Thus intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction, and less likely a triangle and least likely a zigzag. It is most likely to end about the same level as intermediate wave (W) at 1,434 so that the whole structure moves sideways. It may last about 43 to 89 days, depending upon what structure it takes.
If intermediate wave (Y) is a flat correction then within it minor wave B must retrace a minimum of 90% the length of minor wave A, and it may make a new low below 1,180.84.
If intermediate wave (Y) is a flat correction then within it minor wave A must subdivide as a three wave structure. At this stage it looks like minor wave A may be unfolding as a zigzag because minute wave a within it completed as a leading diagonal which is a five wave structure. If minute wave b within this zigzag is over then at 1,314 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.
Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.
With the downwards structure becoming clearer I have adjusted the wave count slightly. I will discard yesterday’s alternate as its probability has further decreased.
Minuette wave (c) is unfolding as a simple impulse, and within it subminuette waves i and ii are complete. Subminuette wave iii has begun and should move towards its middle within the next 24 hours. This should see some strong downwards momentum.
I have redrawn the accelleration channel about subminuette waves i and ii. I would expect subminuette wave iii to move below the lower edge of this channel, and any corrections along the way down should find resistance at the upper edge of the channel.
The target for minuette wave (c) is more likely to be at 2.618 the length of minuette wave (a) at 1,198. We may see another two red candlesticks yet for this target to be reached.
Within subminuette wave iii micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,261.92.
Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.
It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.
The expected direction of this next upwards wave is the same, but for this alternate intermediate wave (C) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). The triangle is invalidated with movement above 1,438.83.
Intermediate wave (C) must unfold as either a single or double zigzag. Within it no second wave correction, nor wave B of the zigzag, may move beyond the start of the first wave or A wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,180.84.
The final intermediate wave (E) upwards may not move above the end of intermediate wave (C) for both a contracting and barrier triangle. E waves most commonly end short of the A-C trend line.
All five subwaves of a triangle must divide into corrective structures. If this next upwards movement subdivides as a zigzag which does not make a new high above 1,438.83 then this alternate would be correct.
Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.
Both hourly wave counts were invalidated: first the alternate with upwards movement, and following that the main with downwards movement.
Yesterday the main hourly wave count expected more upwards movement towards a short term target at 1,270. Price has reached up to 1,272.71 but breached the parallel channel on the hourly chart with downwards movement first.
Yesterday’s analysis expected one or two days of downwards movement towards a target at 1,211.60. We have had only one more day of a little downwards movement which ended at 1,231.69.
Yesterday’s analysis expected a little upwards movement to be followed by downwards movement to new lows, and a red candlestick for Wednesday’s session. This is not what happened as price has moved sideways.
Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement for Tuesday to complete a red candlestick. This is exactly what happened.
I have two hourly wave counts for you today.
Last analysis expected a little more upwards movement towards a short term target at 1,263. Price has reached up to 1,263.06.
Thereafter, at about this target a short term trend change was expected for a few days of overall downwards movement.
I had expected more downwards movement towards a short term target at 1,226 which was expected to be over within 24 hours, before the resumption of the upwards trend.