Monthly Archives: February 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th February, 2014

Yesterday’s price movement completed a small green doji. Thereafter price has turned lower to breach the green parallel channel on the hourly chart. This was expected for the main wave count and was required for confidence in a trend change.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th February, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th February, 2014

Yesterday’s analysis expected overall downwards movement. A small second wave correction on the main hourly chart was assumed to be incomplete, and price moved higher to complete this. Price thereafter turned lower to create a small red candlestick for the day.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th February, 2014

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th February 2014

Last analysis on 11th February expected overall upwards movement towards a target at 105.80.

Price has moved higher as expected, with sideways corrections along the way. The target has not yet been reached and the structure is incomplete. I am expecting more upwards movement.

I can now calculate the target at two wave degrees so it has widened to a small zone.

Click on charts to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Minor wave 2 is most likely continuing as a flat correction. Minor wave 3 has not begun.

Within the expanded flat minute wave a subdivides easily as a three. Minute wave b is ambiguous. This wave count sees it as a three.

Within minor wave 2 minute wave b is a 106% correction of minute wave a so this is an expanded flat correction. Expanded flats normally have C waves which end substantially beyond the end of their A waves. At 105.80 minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a, and minor wave 2 would be just above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio.

Within minute wave c there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii). This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (i) or (iii). At 107.63 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

We may now use Elliott’s technique to draw a channel about minute wave c. Draw the first trend line from the highs labeled minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy upon the low labeled minuette wave (ii). Minuette wave (iv) has very slightly overshot the channel, finding support about this trend line.

I expect minuette wave (v) to end either at the upper edge of this channel or with an overshoot of the upper edge.

I expect the target may be reached in about eight days.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minuette wave (iv) subdivides perfectly as an expanded flat correction. This shows nice structural alternation with the zigzag of minuette wave (ii).

The final fifth wave of minuette wave (v) has most likely begun. Within it subminuette wave ii is most likely to move lower because second wave corrections following leading diagonals in first wave positions are commonly very deep. It may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 101.04.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th February, 2014

As expected price has entered a corrective movement. It has been choppy and overlapping, exactly as a fourth wave should be.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Silver daily 2013

Minute wave iv may be unfolding as a double combination in order to show structural alternation with minute wave ii. So far within the combination the first structure, minuette wave (w), is an expanded flat correction.

I do not expect that minute wave iv is over at the low of 21.002 labeled minuette wave (w) for two reasons. It would be much briefer than its counterpart minute wave ii at only seven days compared to 18 days. Secondly, it would show no structural alternation as both would be expanded flat corrections.

Within minute wave iv minuette wave (x) may take any corrective form, although X waves are most commonly zigzags.

I expect minuette wave (x) to move price sideways in very choppy overlapping movement for a few days.

Minuette wave (y) may be either a zigzag, triangle or flat correction (in order of probability). If it is a triangle or a flat then it should move price sideways.

Overall I expect more very choppy overlapping movement for minute wave iv for about another two weeks.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.359.

Silver daily 2013

The structure of minuette wave (w) looks clear. It subdivides perfectly as an expanded flat correction. Within it subminuette wave a is a three wave zigzag, subminuette wave b is a three wave zigzag and a 132% correction of subminuette wave a, and subminuette wave c is 0.114 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

From this point I would expect minuette wave (x) to move price sideways for a few days.

However, while price remains within the channel containing subminuette wave c downwards I have no confidence that subminuette wave c is complete. It may move price lower. Only when this channel is clearly breached would I have confidence that minuette wave (x) has begun.

I am well aware today that in the short term this Silver analysis appears to diverge with today’s Gold analysis. Before readers comment on this please consider the following points:

1. I am currently expecting Gold to move lower in the beginning of a B wave. The start of this B wave may be very choppy and overlapping. It does not have to trend strongly downwards because it is a B wave and not an impulse, and it is corrective.

2. I am expecting Silver to move sideways. This is entirely possible in conjunction with Gold moving slowly lower.

3. My main wave count for Gold may be wrong; the alternate may yet prove to be correct. At the time of publication I am still waiting to see a clear channel breach of the smaller green channel on the daily chart for Gold. Prior to that channel breach I have made it clear I do not have confidence in a trend change for Gold.

4. Silver could still move lower and we must accept this possibility while price remains within the channel on the hourly chart.

5. Notice that Gold and Silver recently diverged: Gold made its last high on 25th February while Silver had made its high two days earlier on 23rd February, and on the 25th of February Silver moved downwards to a greater degree than Gold did. It is not true to say that they always move in tandem. It is only true to say that they mostly move in tandem.

Overall I am expecting that both markets are at this time in a corrective phase. In that point they do not significantly diverge.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th February, 2014

Movement below 1,331.31 has invalidated the main hourly wave count and confirmed the alternate hourly wave count. A clear channel breach reinforces the alternate wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th February, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th February, 2014

Again upwards movement was not expected, although it was allowed for and has not invalidated the wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th February, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th February, 2014

Upwards movement invalidated the hourly wave count. Although a new high within a B wave is possible this high is too soon within the B wave to fit the wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th February, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st February, 2014

I had expected a red candlestick for Friday’s session. This is not what happened, but the small green doji fits the wave count and price remains below the invalidation point.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st February, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2014

Price has moved a little lower. Thereafter, it has turned up a little remaining well below the invalidation point. The green candlestick on the daily chart for Thursday’s session does not alter the wave count at all. It remains the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th February, 2014

Yesterday I expected to see downwards movement. Price has moved mostly sideways and a red candlestick has been produced on the daily chart which fits the wave count perfectly.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th February, 2014

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th February, 2014

Last analysis had two targets for upwards movement. The first target at 21.872 has been reached and slightly passed (by 0.176 to 22.048) and the structure is complete. I expect upwards movement to stop here and a sideways correction to begin which should last about 18 days.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Silver daily 2013

I had expected minute wave iii to end in either a Fibonacci 13 or 21 days, and I had favoured the longer duration. I now expect that it is over and it has ended in 13 days.

I expect the upwards trend to be interrupted here by a sideways consolidation for minute wave iv.

Minute wave ii was a deep expanded flat correction. Given the guideline of alternation I expect minute wave iv to be a double combination or triangle. It is most likely to be relatively shallow ending about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii at 20.793.

Minute wave ii lasted 18 days. I would expect minute wave iv to be about the same duration.

Use Elliott’s first technique to draw a channel about minor wave C. Draw the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy on the low labeled minute wave ii. I expect minute wave iv to find support at the lower edge of the channel, if it gets down that far.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.359.

Silver daily 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th February, 2014

Price moved slightly higher to 2.28 above the previous target of 1,330, before turning downwards. Tuesday’s session has produced a clear red candlestick on the daily chart which is significant.

This analysis is published about 02:35 p.m. EST.

The wave count remains the same.

Summary: I expect there has been a trend change at 1,332.28. Overall price should continue lower for about seven to ten weeks from here.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

To determine what structure the current upwards movement is most likely to take it is necessary to determine what structure primary wave 4 is most likely to take.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

The first upwards wave within primary wave 4 labeled here intermediate wave (W) subdivides as a three wave zigzag. Primary wave 4 cannot be an unfolding zigzag because the first wave within a zigzag, wave A, must subdivide as a five.

Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be completing as a double zigzag because intermediate wave (X) is a deep 99% correction of intermediate wave (W). Double zigzags commonly have shallow X waves because their purpose it to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) may be either a flat or a triangle. For both these structures minor wave A must be a three, and is most likely to be a zigzag.

Minor wave A is a complete zigzag.

Minor wave B downwards must retrace a minimum of 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,195.98 if intermediate wave (Y) is a flat correction. If intermediate wave (Y) is a triangle then there is no minimum requirement for minor wave B within it.

Minor wave B must subdivide as a corrective structure, and there are more than thirteen possible corrective structures it may take. Within it minute wave a may be either a three or a five, and when it is complete and its structure is clear then we shall have a clearer idea of what structure minor wave B may be. Over the next few days I will publish alternate hourly wave counts to consider all the different possible structures for minute wave a.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Draw a channel about the zigzag of minor wave A: draw the first trend line from the start of minute wave a to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minute wave a. A clear channel breach of this channel with a full daily candlestick below the lower edge and not touching the lower trend line would provide trend channel confirmation of a trend change at minor degree.

I have played with changing the scale from arithmetic to semilogarithmic. It looks like a semilogarithmic scale for both the daily and hourly charts may better show where price is finding support and resistance at the trend lines drawn.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Yesterday’s main hourly wave count did not expect movement above 1,329.95. However, the final small upwards thrust fits best as a continuation of the final fifth wave.

The clear red candlestick on the daily chart created by downwards movement from 1,332.28 is significant. This does not look like a fourth wave correction within minute wave c. I would not expect it to show as a red candlestick while its counterpart minuette wave (ii) did not show on the daily chart as clearly. It is for this reason that I am not publishing yesterday’s alternate hourly wave count.

The following downwards movement has taken price back into the pink channel containing all of minor wave A, and found support at the upper edge of the channel containing minute wave c.

At this stage within minor wave B the first movement down should subdivide as a five wave structure at subminuette wave degree. When that is complete an upwards correction should follow. This first five down may be an A wave of a zigzag, or it may be a first wave of a new impulse for minute wave a.

When the first 5-3-5 down is complete then I will start to use alternate wave counts to manage the various possible structures that minute wave a may unfold as.

Minor wave B is most likely to be a zigzag, and so minute wave a within it is most likely to unfold as a five wave motive structure.

Within the first downwards movement subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,332.28.

Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.

However, at this stage this triangle scenario looks less likely. It is my experience that the subwaves of contracting triangles are often about 80% to 85% the length of the prior subwave. In this case intermediate wave (C) is only 60% of intermediate wave (B). It looks too short, giving this possible triangle a slightly unusual look overall.

I will keep this possibility charted for you, but at this stage I judge it to have a decreased probability.

Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th February, 2014

Upwards movement continued to reach 1,329.95, just 5 cents below the target at 1,330. I have two hourly wave counts for you today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th February, 2014