Monthly Archives: April 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th April, 2014

More sideways movement was expected, which is what has happened. However, a new low slightly below the invalidation point on the main hourly wave count was not expected.

Summary: It is most likely that Gold will remain range bound for another one or two days, with slightly higher movement.

This analysis is published about 6:10 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction. Within the flat correction minor wave B must reach a minimum 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,201.98.

Overall the structure for primary wave 4 should take up time and move price sideways, and the second structure should end about the same level as the first at 1,434. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B downwards is an incomplete corrective structure, and at this stage the structure fits best as an incomplete double zigzag. Minor wave B should continue for a few more weeks and may make a new low below 1,180, and is reasonably likely to do so in coming weeks.

Within the double zigzag of minor wave B we may be seeing alternation between minute waves w and y. Within minute wave w its A and C waves are somewhat close to equality (but not close enough to say they have an acceptable ratio of equality). Within minute wave y we may be seeing a ratio of 1.618 or 2.618 between its A and C waves, with its A wave being the shorter of the two.

Within minor wave B minute wave w lasted 11 days and minute wave x lasted 9 days. So far minute wave y has lasted 12 days and it still has a long way down to go. It looks like it will be longer lasting than minute wave w. It may last a total Fibonacci 21 or 34 days.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

Minute wave x is still most likely complete as a single zigzag. Minute wave y has most likely begun. Minute wave y must subdivide as a zigzag to take price down to 1,201.98 or below.

Within the zigzag of minute wave y minuette wave (b) is still most likely incomplete and I will still expect to see a new high above 1,307.19 before it is over.

There are more than thirteen possible corrective structures a B wave may take, and they are the most difficult of all waves to analyse because there is so much variation between them.

Within minuette wave (b) subminuette waves a and b subdivide best as three wave structures, with subminuette wave b a 157% correction of subminuette wave a. This indicates an expanded flat may be completing.

Subminuette wave c may be either an impulse or ending diagonal. Ending diagonals require all their subwaves to be single zigzags. Micro wave 1 subdivides best as a zigzag so subminuette wave c is most likely an ending diagonal. The diagonal would most likely be contracting to end before 1,331.29.

Within the diagonal micro wave 2 moved lower and is now more likely to be complete. If it continues it may not move below the start of micro wave 1 at 1,268.62.

Minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) above 1,331.29.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2014

I have considered all possible structures for minuette wave (b) which could possibly be complete. Yesterday I considered the possibility that it could be a highly unusual looking and rare running flat. That has an extremely low probability. I have also considered the possibility it may be a multiple W-X-Y, but that would be a double zigzag in which the second zigzag in the double would not have moved beyond the end of the first zigzag. That also has an extremely low probability.

Today I want to consider the possibility it may be a triangle.

If minuette wave (b) is a triangle then it would be a running contracting triangle: subminuette wave c ends below the end of subminuette wave a, and subminuette wave d ends before the end of subminuette wave b. The triangle subwaves all subdivide into single or double zigzags, with only one of the five being a multiple.

The problem with this possibility is the triangle does not have the right look; contracting triangles should have A-C and B-D trend lines which clearly converge (there is a perfect example on the daily chart). This example has an A-C trend line which barely slopes and is essentially flat. This cannot be a barrier triangle because they require the B-D trend line to be flat and the A-C trend line to slope.

For this reason this idea also has an extremely low probability.

In considering all possible structures for minuette wave (b) which could be complete I cannot see one which fits the subdivisions and has the right look. I must conclude that minuette wave (b) is incomplete, even though it is taking a lot longer than I had expected to unfold.

Alternate Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2014

I have moved the degree of labeling within minute wave x down one degree: the first zigzag upwards may not be minute wave x in its entirety and that may only be minuette wave (a) within minute wave x. Minute wave x may be continuing sideways as a flat correction.

Minor wave B downwards is still seen here as a double zigzag: zigzag – X – zigzag. The purpose of double zigzags is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough, so this structure would be able to take price down to 1,201.98 or below.

This alternate still has a lower probability than the main wave count because if minute wave x continues higher for a few days it would be substantially longer in duration than minute wave w. This would be unusual for an X wave within a double zigzag, and reduces the probability of this wave count.

There is no upper invalidation point because there is no minimum or maximum requirement for an X wave. However, X waves within double zigzags are normally shallow as this one would be. The only requirement is that an X wave be a corrective structure.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2014

Within the possible flat correction minuette wave (b) is now a 117% correction of minuette wave (a), which indicates an expanded flat. At 1,355 minuette wave (c) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

If price reached up to 1,380.82 or above then I would relabel minor wave B in its entirety as a flat correction.

Minuette wave (c) must subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. Minuette wave (c) may be an ending diagonal, which for this alternate wave count would most likely be expanding.

Within the diagonal subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 1,268.62.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th April, 2014

Yesterday’s analysis expected to see more choppy overlapping movement. Tuesday has ended with a small doji candlestick, which fits the expectations exactly.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th April, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th April, 2014

Price did not move quite as high as expected at the start of Monday’s session. This changes the wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th April, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th April, 2014

Upwards movement was expected. The target is not yet reached, but the structure is incomplete. The target may be reached on Monday.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th April, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2014

Price whipsawed to breach the invalidation points on both hourly wave counts. The situation is still unclear.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd April, 2014

The channel on the hourly chart has been clearly breached by upwards movement. I have two wave counts for you today. The situation is unclear.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd April, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd April, 2014

The channel on the hourly chart was not clearly breached, and a new low below 1,277.47 has invalidated the main hourly wave count and confirmed the second alternate. Now we have some clarity I have just the one hourly wave count for you today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd April, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st April, 2014

I had expected to see a little downwards movement to begin the week, to reach slightly below 1,282.60 but not below 1,277.79. So far price has reached down to 1,282.04 and turned up slightly.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st April, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th April, 2014

Yesterday’s analysis expected a little upwards movement to about 1,313 before some downwards movement to just below 1,282.60, but not below 1,277.79. Price moved sideways in a very small range.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th April, 2014

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th April, 2014

The wave count was invalidated with downwards movement. I was too quick to label the C wave of the triangle as complete.

Overall the wave count remains the same.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Silver daily 2014

Minor wave B still looks like it is unfolding as a regular contracting triangle. Within the triangle minute wave c now has a better more typical look, and so with this anlaysis I am more confident it is finally over. Minute wave c is now an 82% correction of minute wave b which is a very typical length and gives the triangle the “right look”.

This wave count now expects more upwards movement to complete minute wave d as a single zigzag.

Minute wave d may not move beyond the end of minute wave b above 22.224.

If minute wave c continues lower it may not move beyond the end of minute wave a at 18.585.

Overall this wave count expects to see very choppy, overlapping sideways movement for a few weeks yet in an ever decreasing range.

Silver hourly 2014

The structure of minute wave c is complete and looks clearly like a “three” on the daily chart.

Within minute wave d no second wave correction nor B wave may move beyond its start below 19.232.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th April, 2014

Yesterday’s analysis expected a little upwards movement before a new low below 1,282.60, but not below 1,277.79. Price has moved sideways in a small range to complete a small red doji candlestick.

The wave count remains valid and the same.

Summary: This downwards movement is still an incomplete correction against the current short term upwards trend. In the very short term I expect a little more upwards movement to about 1,313, to be then followed by a slight new low below 1,282.60 but not below 1,277.79.

This analysis is published about 8:45 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction. Within the flat correction minor wave B must reach a minimum 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,201.98.

Overall the structure for primary wave 4 should take up time and move price sideways, and the second structure should end about the same level as the first at 1,434. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B downwards is an incomplete corrective structure: either a flat correction (main hourly wave count) or a double zigzag (alternate hourly wave count). Minor wave B should continue for a few more weeks and may make a new low below 1,180, and is reasonably likely to do so in coming weeks.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

This main wave count follows the idea that minor wave B may be unfolding as a flat correction. Within the flat correction minute wave a subdivides as a single zigzag. Minute wave b within the flat must reach a minimum of 90% the length of minute wave a at 1,380.82.

Minute wave b is most likely to subdivide as a single or double zigzag in order to reach 1,380.82.

Within a zigzag minuette wave (a) must subdivide as a five wave structure. It fits best as a complete impulse.

Minuette wave (a) may have lasted nine days. I would expect minuette wave (b) to last at least three days, and maybe up to eight or nine days. So far it has lasted three days and the structure is incomplete.

So far minuette wave (b) looks like it is completing as a zigzag. Within it subminuette wave a subdivides best as an impulse. Subminuette wave b upwards is still incomplete. The sideways movement for Wednesday’s session may be a triangle completing as micro wave B within subminuette wave b, or it may yet morph into a double combination for micro wave B within subminuette wave b. When this sideways movement is complete I would expect price to break out of this range for a short upwards thrust. Subminuette wave b may end about 1,312.69, the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of subminuette wave a.

When subminuette wave b is complete then subminuette wave c downwards should make a new low below subminuette wave a at 1,282.60 to avoid a truncation.

If the upper invalidation point is breached within the next one or two days (before we see a new low below 1,282.60) then my analysis of subminuette wave a down as a five wave impulse is incorrect. It could be a completed three which may be minuette wave (b) in its entirety, or may only be subminuette wave a of a flat correction or double combination for minuette wave (b).

Minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) below 1,277.79.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2014

This alternate wave count follows the idea that minor wave B downwards may be unfolding as a double zigzag. The first zigzag downwards is labeled minute wave w. The double should be joined by a “three” in the opposite direction which may subdivide as any corrective structure labeled minute wave x.

At this stage this alternate wave count is again the same as the main wave count with the sole exception of minute wave x not requiring a minimum upwards length.

Minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) below 1,277.79.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2014

I want to consider the idea that my analysis of minuette wave (a) upwards as a five wave impulse could be wrong. I want to look at the possibility that this upwards wave may be a three wave structure, in which case it may fit best as a single zigzag. If it is a zigzag then it may be a complete minute wave X within a larger double zigzag down for minor wave B.

In trying to see upwards movement as a three wave structure there has to be an ending diagonal for minuette wave (c) which has to begin at 1,301.02 as labeled. This diagonal does not have the “right look”; it is neither expanding nor contracting. Within the diagonal the fourth wave is longer than the second, but the fifth wave is shorter than the third which is shorter than the first. The trend lines are mostly parallel, with only a very slight convergence.

The problem of the wave lengths within this possible ending diagonal reduce the probability of this wave count significantly. It is possible, but it is very unlikely.

If minute wave X is a completed zigzag then minute wave y downwards has begun. Minute wave y must subdivide as a single zigzag. Within it subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i above 1,331.29.

If price moves below 1,277.70 in the next few days this is the wave count I would use.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th April, 2014

Yesterday’s analysis expected price to move lower for a small B wave correction against the trend. Price has moved lower, and strongly so.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th April, 2014

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th April, 2014

Last analysis looked for a channel breach on the hourly chart before confidence could be had in a trend change and downwards targets. The channel was not breached and upwards movement continued. Price remains below the invalidation point on the daily chart.

Click on charts to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

The daily chart shows all of the start of cycle wave c downwards.

Minor wave 1 subdivides perfectly as an impulse. Minor wave 2 is now complete as an expanded flat correction which is a 66% correction of minor wave 1.

At 72.53 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days and minor wave 2 lasted 67 days. Minor wave 3 is likely to be extended and so should last longer than 65 days. It may complete in a total Fibonacci 89 days.

The channel drawn about minor waves 1 and 2 is a base channel. Minor wave 3 downwards should clearly and strongly breach the lower edge of the channel. Along the way down upwards corrections should find resistance about the upper edge of the channel. The channel is slightly overshot. Price should return to below the upper trend line. If this wave count is correct then minute wave ii must be over here as there is almost no room left for it to move higher.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 105.21.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

Minute wave ii continued higher as a double zigzag. There is no Fibonacci ratio between the two zigzags in this double, which is normal.

Within the first zigzag in the double, labeled minuette wave (w) (seen on the daily chart) there is no Fibonacci ratio between its subminuette waves a and c.

Within the second zigzag in the double, labeled minuette wave (y), subminuette wave c is 0.12 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

The channel drawn as a best fit which contains the whole structure of minute wave ii is overshot at the upper edge. There is divergence at the hourly chart level with price trending higher and MACD trending lower. This indicates a trend change is imminent.

If minute wave ii moves any higher it may not move above 105.21.

This wave count expects to see downwards movement for the next few weeks towards 84.00 where minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minute wave i lasted 10 days, minute wave ii so far has lasted 20 days. I would expect minute wave iii to be extended so it should be longer in both duration and price than minute wave i. It should last at least three weeks, probably longer.