Monthly Archives: May 2014

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th May, 2014

Price has moved sideways which fits both wave counts for Silver. I am today swapping over my main and alternate wave counts for Silver to be in line with what I expect to see for Gold. However, the alternate wave count below could still be correct.

Silver made a new low of 18.581 on 30th April, 2014, Gold did not. Silver and Gold do not always turn at the same time, and their highs and lows are sometimes separate in time. It seems that Silver often leads Gold and may be doing so again.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Silver daily 2014

Silver is within an intermediate degree (B) wave. Unfortunately, B waves are the most difficult of all Elliott wave structures to analyse because they have the widest variety. There are more than thirteen possible structures this B wave may take and so flexibility in analysis is essential.

Intermediate wave (B) may be an incomplete flat correction.

Within the flat minor wave A subdivides as a three wave zigzag.

Minor wave B downwards may be an incomplete zigzag.

Within the zigzag of minor wave B minute waves a and b are complete. Minute wave c would be an incomplete impulse.

The target for downwards movement to end is at 15.691 where minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

If price moves below 18.581 in the next few days then this wave count would be confirmed.

This wave count expects to see an increase in downwards momentum as a third wave unfolds.

Price should find support and resistance at the pink trend lines about minor wave B on the way down.

Within minute wave c minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) above 22.224.

Alternate Wave Count.

Silver daily alternate 2014

A triangle may be forming at the daily chart level. The triangle fits best as a barrier triangle for intermediate wave (B). The B-D trend line is almost perfectly flat.

This wave count expects more choppy overlapping sideways movement with a decrease in volume, and momentum remaining close to zero, for about another two or three weeks.

Within the barrier triangle minor wave D may not move substantially below the end of minor wave B. As long as the B-D trend line remains flat this wave count will remain valid.

Minor wave E should subdivide as a single zigzag and may not move above the end of minor wave C at 22.224.

This alternate wave count expects price to break out to the downside once the sideways structure is complete. This breakout may yet be weeks away. Minor wave E is incomplete, and it has not taken enough time nor moved high enough at this stage to look right.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th May, 2014

Again I had expected to see a doji or green candlestick for Friday’s session. This is not what happened. Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th May, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th May, 2014

I had expected to see a green candlestick for Thursday’s session, but price has moved a little lower. I have two wave counts for you today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th May, 2014

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th May, 2014

Last analysis expected that upwards movement was over and price should move lower. Price moved higher first, but remains below the invalidation point. Since reaching a high at 104.49 price has turned downwards.

Summary: I expect that upwards movement is over for now. A clear breach of the channel on the hourly chart would provide me with confidence that the middle of a third wave down has started. The target for the next wave down is 92.91 and may be reached in two to three weeks.

Click on charts to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

The daily chart shows all of the start of cycle wave c downwards.

Minor wave 1 subdivides perfectly as an impulse and minor wave 2 as an expanded flat correction, which is a 66% correction of minor wave 1.

At 72.53 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days, and I would expect minor wave 3 to be extended so longer in duration. It may last a total Fibonacci 89 days.

I have slightly adjusted the base channel about minor waves 1 and 2 to a “best fit” channel. I would expect upwards corrections to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel, and the third wave down should have enough momentum to break through support at the lower edge of the channel.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 104.99.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

Minuette wave (ii) moved higher. There is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c.

There has not been a breach of the orange channel containing minuette wave (ii). This is still required before I would have any confidence that the trend has changed to downwards. While we do not have this confirmation I will allow for the possibility of more upwards movement. Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) above 104.99.

When this orange channel is breached then I would move the invalidation point down to the start of minuette wave (iii) and calculate a target for minuette wave (iii).

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th May, 2014

The short term target was 1,256. Price reached down to 1,256.06, so far. The wave count is unchanged.

Summary: I expect to see some upwards movement to complete a second wave correction at 1,273. This may complete a green candlestick for Thursday’s session. The invalidation point is at 1,293.47.

Update: if we see a new low below 1,256.06 before upwards movement then the second wave correction may not have yet arrived and I would expect price to continue lower.

This analysis is published about 07:30 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction. Within the flat correction minor wave B must reach a minimum 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,201.98.

If downwards movement does not reach 1,201.98 or below then intermediate wave (Y) may not be a flat correction and may be a contracting triangle. I will keep this alternate possibility in mind as this next wave down unfolds. If it looks like a triangle may be forming I will again chart that possibility for you.

It remains possible that primary wave 4 in its entirety is a huge contracting triangle. If 1,201.98 is not met I would also consider this possibility.

Overall the structure for primary wave 4 should take up time and move price sideways, and the second structure should end about the same level as the first at 1,434. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B downwards is an incomplete corrective structure, and at this stage the structure is most likely to be a single zigzag with a triangle for minute wave b which is now complete. At 1,178 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a. This would see minor wave B 101% the length of minor wave A and so intermediate wave (Y) would be a regular flat correction.

I have drawn a channel about minor wave B downwards: draw the first trend line from the start of minute wave a to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minute wave a. I will expect downward movement to find support at the lower end of this channel due to this being the most common place for minute wave c to end.

Within minute wave c no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,293.47. If minute wave c reaches equality in duration with minute wave a it will end in another ten days.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

There is now a completed five wave structure downwards. Although price reached the target at 1,256 this is not where minuette wave (i) ends.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is 1.80 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.11 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

The small orange channel drawn about minuette wave (i) is drawn using Elliott’s second technique, and it is clearly breached by sideways and upwards movement. This is an indication that the first five down for minuette wave (i) is now complete and minuette wave (ii) is underway.

Minuette wave (ii) subdivides as an incomplete expanded flat correction. Subminuette wave a subdivides as a three, and importantly subminuette wave b downwards is a perfect three wave zigzag on the five minute chart. At 1,273 subminuette wave c would reach 2.618 the length of subminuette wave a, and minuette wave (ii) would reach up to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i).

I would expect minuette wave (ii) to show up on the daily chart as at least one green candlestick, and that would give minute wave c a typical look on the daily chart.

When minuette wave (ii) is over then the next wave should be a third wave down.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) above 1,293.47.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th May, 2014

Finally we have the breakout we were expecting, and as expected it is to the downside. Movement below the lower triangle trend line and below 1,283.43 has confirmed this.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th May, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th May, 2014

With markets closed in the US for Memorial Day Gold has had a very quiet day, completing a small B wave triangle. The wave count remains the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th May, 2014

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th May, 2014

The structure of the daily chart for GDX looks remarkably similar to Gold. This wave count supports the current wave count for Gold.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (4) should last one to a few months. It may end about the terminus of the fourth wave of one lesser degree at $31.35.

GDX daily 2013

At this stage I expect intermediate wave (4) is incomplete. I have moved the degree of labeling for the first wave up labeled now minor wave A down one degree; I expect this is just minor wave A and not intermediate wave (4) in its entirety.

I have done this because the most recent movement suggests a contracting triangle is unfolding. If intermediate wave (5) has begun this triangle would be in a second wave position, and that does not make sense.

At this stage I would expect that minuette wave (e) is incomplete and price should move a little higher to end it. Minuette wave (e) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (c) at 24.67. If price moves above this point then my wave count is wrong, and I would expect some more upwards movement.

The triangle would be confirmed as complete when price moves below 23.04. Minuette wave (d) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (b), and so at that stage downwards movement could not be a continuation of minuette wave (d) and the triangle would have to be over.

If intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a flat correction then within it minor wave B downwards must reach a minimum 90% length of minor wave A at 21.145.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd May, 2014

Further sideways movement indicates a nine wave triangle is unfolding. It looks incomplete. The confirmation and invalidation points can now be moved closer together, reducing risk and increasing reward.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd May, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd May, 2014

The triangle may now be complete. A break below 1,277.57 would confirm this.

Summary: Sideways movement may have just ended and price may be breaking out to the downside. Confirmation below 1,277.57 is required. The target is 1,189.

This analysis is published about 07:15 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction. Within the flat correction minor wave B must reach a minimum 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,201.98.

If downwards movement does not reach 1,201.98 or below then intermediate wave (Y) may not be a flat correction and may be a contracting triangle. I will keep this alternate possibility in mind as this next wave down unfolds. If it looks like a triangle may be forming I will again chart that possibility for you.

Overall the structure for primary wave 4 should take up time and move price sideways, and the second structure should end about the same level as the first at 1,434. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B downwards is an incomplete corrective structure, and at this stage the structure is most likely to be a single zigzag with a triangle for minute wave b which is very close to completion.

Minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a above 1,392.30.

At 1,189 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a. Minute wave a lasted 11 days and I would expect minute wave c to be of about the same duration. If it lasts 13 days it would have a Fibonacci time relationship.

Finally, today I have considered the possibility that when sideways movement is done price could break out to the upside. This is possible, but such a wave count has the wrong look and so I don’t want to publish it for you. It only works if minute wave b is a combination: zigzag – X (as a triangle) – wave Y yet to complete. I will only chart this possibility for you if it shows itself to be true, but in my experience with Gold it has structures which look very typical. This idea does not look typical.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

It is possible that minuette wave (e) and so the whole triangle is now finally over. However, I have a couple of concerns with this wave count.

Within the triangle minuette wave (b) subdivides only as a double zigzag and does not fit as a single zigzag. Within a triangle only one of the five subwaves may be a more complex wave, and so with minuette wave (b) a double zigzag that means minuette wave (e) must be a simple three, most likely a single zigzag. The problem is subminuette waves a and c within it do not subdivide as five wave structures.

My second concern is the movement downwards from the high labeled minuette wave (e). This is not a very strong movement, and when triangles complete the start of the next wave out of them is normally very swift and strong.

This makes me consider the possibility that the triangle is not over, or my labeling of some of the subwaves may be wrong, or it could be continuing yet further sideways as a nine wave triangle, or within the triangle a subwave may be unfolding as a triangle itself which I am struggling to see.

If minute wave b is continuing further sideways as a nine wave triangle then we would see a continuation of sideways movement for another one to three days, before the breakout to the downside occurs.

Minuette wave (e) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (c) above 1,315.72.

In the first instance a clear breach of the lower (b) – (d) trend line of the triangle would indicate price is breaking out to the downside.

Movement below 1,277.57 would provide final confirmation that price has broken out to the downside. At that stage downwards movement could not be a b wave within a zigzag for minuette wave (e), nor could it be a continuation of any triangle subwave of a nine wave triangle.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st May, 2014

With continued sideways movement today I am discarding the prior main wave count in favour of the alternate, which will be my only wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st May, 2014

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st May, 2014

Last analysis expected a little upwards movement to the target at 102.14 to 102.61 to last about five days. So far upwards movement has reached 102.99 and has lasted six days from last analysis.

Summary: I expect that upwards movement is over for now. A clear breach of the channel on the hourly chart would provide me with confidence that the middle of a third wave down has started. The target for the next wave down is 92.91 and may be reached in two to three weeks.

Click on charts to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

The daily chart shows all of the start of cycle wave c downwards.

Minor wave 1 subdivides perfectly as an impulse. Minor wave 2 an expanded flat correction which is a 66% correction of minor wave 1.

At 72.53 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days, and I would expect minor wave 3 to be extended so longer in duration. It may last a total Fibonacci 89 days.

Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days and minor wave 2 lasted 67 days. Minor wave 3 is likely to be extended and so should last longer than 65 days. It may complete in a total Fibonacci 89 days.

I have slightly adjusted the base channel about minor waves 1 and 2 to a “best fit” channel. I would expect upwards corrections to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel, and the third wave down should have enough momentum to break through support at the lower edge of the channel.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 104.99.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

At this stage it looks likely that minuette wave (ii) is now over; the structure is complete. However, I would use the channel drawn about it to confirm the resumption of the downwards trend. When this channel is clearly breached by at least one or two hourly candlesticks below the lower edge and not touching the lower trend line then I would have confidence that the middle of a third wave down is underway.

If minuette wave (iii) begins at 102.99 then at 92.91 it would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). If minuette wave (ii) moves higher then this target would need to be recalculated.

Once the channel is breached I would expect downwards movement to continue and downwards momentum to increase strongly.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) above 104.99.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th May, 2014

More sluggish sideways movement to complete another small doji candlestick was not what was expected. I have a new alternate wave count for you today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th May, 2014