Monthly Archives: June 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th June, 2014

Sideways movement continued, although for less than one day. The breakout was expected to be upwards. The alternate hourly wave count target for sideways movement to end was at 1,311.44 which was met and exceeded by just 1.01.

Summary: Minor wave B is complete as a triangle. Minor wave C may be brief and is extremely likely to fall short of the (A)-(C) trend line on the daily chart. The target for it to end is at 1,343 in one or two days.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014

It is time to take a quick look at the bigger picture with primary wave 4 now so close to its end.

This wave count sees a clear five wave structure (that is how it subdivides on the daily chart) for primary wave 1. Any wave count which sees the end of primary wave 1 anywhere else than at that point must clearly explain how it is a five and not a three.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat which lasted 53 weeks. Primary wave 4 is a regular contracting triangle which has so far lasted also 53 weeks. If primary wave 4 ends soon it will be perfectly in proportion to primary wave 2 giving this wave count the right look.

Primary wave 3 is 12.54 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave 1.

The channel drawn here uses Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of primary waves 1 to 3, then place a parallel copy upon the end of primary wave 2. If primary wave 4 overshoots the (A)-(C) trend line of its triangle then it may find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.

When primary wave 4 is done then primary wave 5 downwards should follow. It would most likely be equal in length with primary wave 1 at 388.25.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Primary wave 4 is very close to completion.

Intermediate wave (E) is most likely to fall short of the (A)-(C) trend line. It may also overshoot this trend line, but that is less common. If it does overshoot this trend line then it may find resistance, and end, at the upper edge of the bigger maroon channel on the weekly chart.

Within the zigzag of intermediate wave (E) minor wave B is now complete as a small triangle and minor wave C has begun. At 1,343 minor wave C would reach 0.382 the length of minor wave A and intermediate wave (E) would end before the (A)-(C) trend line.

When there is more structure within minor wave C to analyse I will be able to calculate a target for it to end at minute degree. The target at 1,343 may widen to a small zone or change.

So far within primary wave 4 intermediate wave (A) lasted 43 days (no Fibonacci relationship), intermediate wave (B) lasted 88 days (just one day short of a Fibonacci 89), intermediate wave (C) lasted 53 days (just two days short of a Fibonacci 55) and intermediate wave (D) lasted 56 days (just one day more than a Fibonacci 55). So far intermediate wave (E) has lasted 19 days and is almost complete. It may complete in a total Fibonacci 21 days (give or take one day either side of this).

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

Minor wave B is another perfect contracting triangle with minute wave e falling short of its a-c trend line.

Triangles precede the final movement one degree higher. Minor wave C is the final wave up to complete this entire structure at primary wave degree.

Waves following triangles are usually shorter than the wave which precedes the triangle. I would expect minor wave C to be shorter than minor wave A while also considering the (A)-(C) trend line on the daily chart.

So far within minor wave C there is an almost complete five wave impulse. Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 1,319.27.

When minute wave i upwards is a complete five wave structure then I would expect downwards movement for minute wave ii which may not move beyond the start of minute wave i at 1,310.43. At that stage it would also be entirely possible that minor wave C and so primary wave 4 are complete. At that stage movement below 1,310.43 would indicate that primary wave 5 has begun.

My only concern with this wave count today is what degree of labeling to use on minor wave C upwards. Is this just minute wave i or is minor wave C going to be particularly brief and is it almost over now? The depth of the next wave downwards will answer that question tomorrow.

This analysis is published about 04:55 p.m. EST.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th June, 2014

Sideways movement continues as expected. Elliott wave count options for the B wave can now be narrowed down further. To end the week, I have two Elliott wave hourly charts for you.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th June, 2014

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th June, 2014

Last Elliott wave analysis expected to see downwards movement for a D wave within the triangle. Price did move lower in choppy overlapping sideways movement, but wave D has not yet arrived.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (4) should last one to a few months.

GDX daily 2013

Minor wave C is incomplete because a new high since last analysis cannot be minor wave D. Price should move higher before minor wave C is done.

Sideways movement since last analysis may have been an expanded flat for minute wave b within minor wave C.

At this stage it cannot be confirmed that minute wave b is complete. This movement may only be minuette wave (a) or (w) within a larger flat or combination. If minute wave b continues further it would very likely move sideways and not substantially lower.

Minute wave c upwards may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minute wave a. It may find resistance and end at the upper edge of the black channel copied over here from the monthly chart.

Minor wave D may not move beyond the end of minor wave B below 21.93 for a contracting triangle. For a barrier triangle minor wave D may end about the same level as minor wave B, as long as the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. In practice this means minor wave D may move very slightly below 21.93 as this invalidation point is not black and white.

Minor wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line.

The whole triangle for intermediate wave (4) may find resistance, and may end, at the upper edge of the black channel which is here copied over from the monthly chart.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th June, 2014

Movement below 1,315.48 invalidated yesterday’s alternate Elliott wave count and confirmed the main wave count. I have more confidence today that a B wave has begun. Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th June, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th June, 2014

The main Elliott wave count from yesterday expected the start of downwards movement. A breach of 1,314.19 confirmed the main wave count and invalidated the alternate.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th June, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th June, 2014

Yesterday’s Elliott wave analysis expected a small triangle to end and be followed by a sharp upwards thrust. This is what happened, but the target at 1,330 has not yet been met.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th June, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd June, 2014

Upwards movement was expected for Monday. Price is moving sideways in a narrow range completing a fourth wave triangle. I am adjusting the Elliott wave count to better fit with momentum, but it makes no difference to the target or direction expected.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd June, 2014

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th June, 2014

To see a monthly chart see one analysis prior.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX daily 2013

Within this triangle structure for intermediate wave (4) minor wave C may now be complete. Within minor wave C minute wave c is $8 short of equality in length with minute wave a. Minute wave c could move higher, and if it does by about $8 then this ratio would be improved. If the next candlestick is red I would have some confidence that minor wave C is over.

When the narrow pink channel about minor wave C is breached to the downside I would have full confidence that minor wave C is over.

Minor wave D downwards may not move beyond the start of minor wave B at 21.93. However, for a barrier triangle minor wave D may end about the same level as minor wave B, as long as the B-D trend line is essentially flat. In practice this means that minor wave D may end slightly below 21.93 and so this lower invalidation point is not black and white.

Minor wave D may last about three weeks, and it could be more time consuming than this. It depends on how long the B wave within it lasts.

Minor wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line.

The whole triangle for intermediate wave (4) may find resistance, and may end, at the upper edge of the black channel which is here copied over from the monthly chart.

In summary I am expecting several more weeks of choppy overlapping range bound movement from GDX. When that is done price should break out to the downside for intermediate wave (5).

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th June, 2014

Yesterday’s technical analysis of Gold expected a little more upwards movement, with a fourth wave correction along the way. Price moved slightly lower and sideways. The Elliott wave structure is incomplete and the wave count remains the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th June, 2014

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th June, 2014

Last analysis expected downwards movement with an increase in momentum. This is not what happened. Upwards movement above 105.21 invalidated the daily wave count.

Summary: An important trend line has been touched. I expect downwards movement from this point. The long term target at 74.53 is at least three months away, probably longer.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2014

I am swapping over my main and alternate wave counts for US Oil at the monthly chart level. I am doing this because upwards movement has hit the upper teal trend line. The confirmation / invalidation points are reasonably close together. We may have clarity between these two wave counts quite soon. In the meantime I would judge this main wave count to have the better overall look and so a higher probability.

The one thing which looks most certain in this wave count is cycle wave a downwards is a five wave impulse. This means cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a above 146.73. Cycle wave b should subdivide as a three wave structure. It looks like a double zigzag which may be complete.

Within the double zigzag this wave count sees primary wave X as a regular contracting triangle, ending at 84.07 where intermediate wave (E) typically undershot the B-D trend line. The alternate analysis sees primary wave X triangle ending later at 85.64, and this is the key difference between the two wave counts.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Within cycle wave c intermediate waves (1) and now (2) may also be complete. Intermediate wave (2) subdivides as a combination: expanded flat – triangle for X – zigzag.

At 74.53 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). It should last at least the same duration as intermediate wave (1) which was three months, but most likely it would be substantially longer. It may last about six months or so.

Divergence between price and MACD during the end of intermediate wave (2) supports this wave count.

Movement below 104.51 at this stage would invalidate the alternate wave count below and confirm this main wave count.

Alternate Wave Count.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2014

This alternate wave count sees the triangle for primary wave X ending later, and at that point the structure for the triangle actually has a much better look than the main wave count.

This wave count expects some more upwards movement before cycle wave b is complete.

Cycle wave b is still seen as a double zigzag, and the second zigzag for primary wave Y is incomplete. Only intermediate wave (C) needs to complete.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Within intermediate wave (C) minor waves 1 and now 2 are complete. Minor wave 2 ended with a truncated C wave.

At 112.73 minor wave 3 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1.

At 110.86 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i.

Minor wave 3 has not shown an increase in upwards momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 1. This reduces the probability of this wave count to an alternate.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 104.51.

At 117.84 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th June, 2014

Movement above 19.824 and then 19.996 invalidated the main wave count and confirmed the alternate.

Silver has now finished its barrier triangle, and the next movement should be a five wave structure downwards. I will use the channels on the hourly chart to indicate when this trend change has occurred.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2014

The triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Within it the overshoot for minor wave E of the B-D trend line indicates that upwards movement is either over here or should be very soon.

At 10.85 intermediate wave (C) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 14.07 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with the widest part of the triangle. This gives a wide target zone. When there is structure within intermediate wave (C) to analyse I will be able to use minor wave degree to add to the target calculation and narrow it down. I cannot do that yet.

Intermediate wave (C) may last about 18 weeks, if it is 0.618 the duration of intermediate wave (A).

If intermediate wave (B) moves higher (and the trend change is unconfirmed so it may do so) then it may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) at 34.515.

Silver daily 2014

The triangle structure is correct and now either complete here or extremely close to completion.

I know members and visitors will comment that this wave count does not fit with Gold. I disagree. Gold expects downwards movement for a B wave at minor degree and this may coincide with Silver’s first wave down at minor degree. When Gold expects a following upwards wave for a C wave at minor degree this may coincide with a deep second wave correction for minor wave 2 on Silver. They most certainly can move together. However, Gold and Silver do not always have their highs and lows at the same point in time. Silver tends to lead Gold.

If this wave count is correct then intermediate wave (C) should begin either here or extremely soon. Once there is some indication of this trend change on the hourly chart with channel breaches I would have some more confidence in this wave count.

Minor wave E has overshot the A-C trend line. E waves of triangles most commonly undershoot the A-C trend line, but when they do not then they tend to overshoot the trend line (they do not end right at the trend line). This gives the triangle structure a typical look and indicates it should be ending about now.

While the trend change is not indicated on the hourly chart the invalidation point remains at 22.224. Minor wave E may not move beyond the end of minor wave C.

Silver hourly 2014

Within minor wave E zigzag I have drawn a parallel channel about minute wave c using Elliott’s second technique: draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette waves (ii) to (iv), then place a parallel copy upon the end of minuette wave (iii). This trend channel is overshot by a strong fifth wave which is typical behaviour for a commodity market. When this channel is breached by downwards movement I will have confidence that minor wave E is over and there has been a trend change to the downside.

In the first instance a breach of the channel containing minuette wave (v) would provide earliest indication of this trend change.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c within minor wave E zigzag.

Ratios within minute wave c are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.081 short of 4.236 the length of minuette wave (i), and there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

Ratios within minuette wave (v) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i, and subminuette wave v is so far 0.066 longer than equality with subminuette wave i.

The question mark next to the end of intermediate wave (B) indicates that it is not clear yet if this upwards movement is over. I want to see the channels on the hourly chart clearly breached before I have confidence in this trend change. If this wave count is correct then this trend change should happen within 72 hours, probably sooner rather than later.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th June, 2014

Last Elliott wave analysis three days ago expected upwards movement for GDX. The target for it to end is 26.18. At the time of writing it is getting very close to this target.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (4) should last one to a few months.

GDX daily 2013

I expect that intermediate wave (4) is completing as a regular contracting triangle. Within the triangle all the subwaves must subdivide as corrective structures, one may be a multiple, and four of the five waves must be zigzags or multiple zigzags.

So far minor wave A is a multiple so this means all the remaining subwaves must be simple A-B-C corrections. Minor wave A is technically a double combination so this means all the remaining waves must be simple zigzags.

Minor wave D may not move below the end of minor wave D at 21.93, although if the triangle is a barrier triangle minor wave D may end about the same level as minor wave B as long as the B-D trend line is essentially flat. This invalidation point is not black and white.

Minor wave C may not move beyond the end of minor wave A above 28.03. This invalidation point is black and white.

Overall this wave count now expects to see very choppy overlapping sideways movement for several weeks yet before this correction is over.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th June, 2014

Last Elliott wave analysis of Gold expected one more downwards wave of about $27 in length before the upwards trend resumed. This is not what happened. Movement above 1,284.99 invalidated the hourly wave count.

Summary: Minor wave A may be close to completion. Upwards movement should continue to a target at 1,330.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

This wave count expects primary wave 4 is a huge triangle. The triangle is now within the final wave of intermediate wave (E) which should subdivide as a zigzag.

Intermediate wave (E) is most likely to fall short of the (A) – (C) trend line. It may also overshoot this trend line, but that is less common.

Within the zigzag of intermediate wave (E) minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A at 1,240.51.

So far within primary wave 4 intermediate wave (A) lasted 43 days, intermediate wave (B) lasted 88 days, intermediate wave (C) lasted 53 days and intermediate wave (D) lasted 56 days. Intermediate wave (E) may last a total of about 43 to 56 days. So far it has only lasted 12 days.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

Minute wave iv was complete. I had labeled this downwards movement as a five wave impulse because that is what it looks like, and impulses are the most common Elliott wave structures. The only complete corrective structure which fits for that wave is a very rare triple zigzag. The rarity of triples means I did not consider that possibility, and that is the problem with rare structures. You never expect to see them based on probability, and only label them so once all other options are eliminated.

Invalidation of yesterday’s hourly wave count with movement above 1,284.99 indicated minute wave iv had to be over and the upwards trend for minor wave A had resumed.

With minute wave iv complete minute wave v upwards is showing strong momentum, typical of fifth waves in commodity markets.

Minute wave v would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave iii at 1,330.

Within minute wave v minuette wave (iii) would reach 4.236 the length of minuette wave (i) at 1,325.

Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave iii is just 0.77 short of 6.854 the length of subminuette wave i.

When minor wave A is complete then I would expect a few days to a couple of weeks of very choppy overlapping downwards movement for minor wave B. Minor wave A may end within one or two more days.

This analysis is published about 05:13 p.m. EST.