GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th June, 2014

Downwards movement for GDX, like Gold, did not reach the minimum requirement for a flat correction. This changes the wave count for the short to mid term for GDX. I expect now that like Gold it is completing a fourth wave triangle.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (4) should last one to a few months.

GDX daily 2013

I expect that intermediate wave (4) is completing as a regular contracting triangle. Within the triangle all the subwaves must subdivide as corrective structures, one may be a multiple, and four of the five waves must be zigzags or multiple zigzags.

So far minor wave A is a multiple so this means all the remaining subwaves must be simple A-B-C corrections. Minor wave A is technically a double combination so this means all the remaining waves must be simple zigzags.

Within minor wave C minute wave b may not move beyond the end of minute wave a below 21.93.

Minor wave C may not move beyond the end of minor wave A above 28.03.

Overall this wave count now expects to see very choppy overlapping sideways movement for a few weeks yet before this correction is over.