Monthly Archives: July 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st July, 2014

Movement below 1,291.83 confirmed the alternate wave count and invalidated the main Elliott wave count. By a simple process of elimination I now have just one wave count for you today.

Summary: The target for this downwards movement to end is 1,275 to 1,271. It should be over within the next 24 hours. Thereafter, a new wave upwards should begin which should move above 1,345.22.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

The main wave count sees primary wave 4 as an incomplete regular contracting triangle. Primary wave 2 was a deep 68% running flat correction. Primary wave 4 is showing alternation in depth and some alternation in structure.

Within the triangle of primary wave 4 intermediate wave (E) is unfolding as a zigzag: minor wave A is a five wave impulse and minor wave B downwards is an incomplete zigzag.

Because there is a clear triangle within this downwards wave of minor wave B this movement cannot be a new impulse to the downside because a triangle may not be the sole corrective structure in a second wave position. The position of this triangle indicates strongly that intermediate wave (E) is incomplete.

If minor wave B gets down as low as the black (B)-(D) trend line it should find very strong support there. Only a small intra-day overshoot could be contemplated if this wave count is correct. Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A below 1,240.51.

When minor wave B is complete then I can calculate a target upwards for you for minor wave C. Because I do not know where it begins I cannot do that yet for you. Minor wave C is extremely likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of minor wave A at 1,345.22 to avoid a truncation. Intermediate wave (E) at its end is most likely to fall short of the (A)-(C) trend line. The other possibility is it may overshoot the (A)-(C) trend line and if it does that it may then find final resistance at the upper edge of the big maroon channel copied over here from the weekly chart.

Intermediate wave (E) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (C) above 1,392.30.

I can see one alternate possibility today. If primary wave 4 is over at the high labeled minor wave A within intermediate wave (E) then it is possible that primary wave 5 is beginning with a leading diagonal in a first wave position. However, leading diagonals in first wave positions are not very common, and I have never seen a zigzag for a first wave of a leading diagonal which has a triangle in its B wave position. This alternate idea is possible, but I judge it to have a very low probability, maybe as low as 5%. I will only publish this idea if the black (B)-(D) trend line is clearly breached.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

The triangle was most likely over at the high labeled minuette wave (e) at 1,303.77. Subsequent movement fits best as a series of first and second waves.

Movements following triangles are most commonly relatively short and brief. At 1,271 minute wave c would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave a. At 1,275 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (iii) is 0.30 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

I have drawn two channels on this downwards movement, both using Elliott’s first technique. The green channel about minute wave c is drawn first with a trend line from the ends of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then a parallel copy is placed on the end of minuette wave (ii). I would expect minuette wave (iv), if it continues further, to find resistance at the upper green trend line. When this green channel is clearly breached by upwards movement that shall be earliest indication that minute wave c and so minor wave B in its entirety is over.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 1,292.84. When minuette wave (v) downwards is complete then subsequent movement above this point would provide confidence that minute wave c is over because at that point upwards movement may not be just a fourth wave correction within the downwards trend, and so the downwards trend would have to be over.

I would expect minute wave c to end within the next 24 hours.

This analysis is published about 05:38 p.m. EST.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th July, 2014

The downwards target for this correction to end was almost met, with downwards movement just 0.83 short of the target. Thereafter, price has turned up a little.

I have a new and better alternate Elliott wave count for you today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th July, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th July, 2014

Upwards movement was expected. A new high was made, but thereafter price has moved lower to complete a red candlestick for Tuesday’s session.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th July, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th July, 2014

Upwards movement was expected for Monday. A new high was made and thereafter price has moved sideways. The Elliott wave structure is incomplete.

I am changing the alternate wave count today. Both wave counts expect the same direction next.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th July, 2014

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th July, 2014

Last Elliott wave analysis expected at least some more downwards movement from Silver for both the main and alternate wave counts. Price has moved lower as expected and now the wave counts diverge.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2014

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). This first target has a higher probability. At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks, and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks.

Silver daily 2014

The triangle for intermediate wave (B) is complete.

Intermediate wave (C) downwards should subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse (most likely) or an ending diagonal (less likely). At this stage it is far too early to tell which structure may unfold.

Within intermediate wave (C) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 21.579.

Silver hourly 2014

So far to the downside there may be a series of four first and second waves. This indicates we may see a strong increase in downwards momentum some time in the next couple of weeks or so.

At 18.661 minor wave 3 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

The dark blue channel is a base channel drawn about minor waves 1 and 2. Upwards corrections should continue to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel. When the middle of the third wave arrives it should have the power to break through support at the lower edge of the channel. This would be the first indication that the strongest downwards movement has arrived.

Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i above 21.075.

Silver daily alternate 2014

This alternate sees intermediate wave (B) as an incomplete zigzag. Within it at 25.484 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave C is extremely likely to make at least a slight new high above 25.118 to avoid a truncation.

I am still considering this alternate idea because for the main wave count (at the daily chart level) minor wave E of the triangle is such a strong overshoot. Sometimes E waves overshoot the A-C trend line of triangles when they come to an end, but not by that much. It has a slightly strange look.

I would judge this alternate to have only about a 20 – 30% probability. It does not fit with the main wave count for Gold or GDX.

If the main wave count is invalidated with movement above 21.579 then this is the alternate wave count I would use.

At 25.164 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

I have drawn a small best fit channel about the downwards zigzag of minute wave ii. If this channel is clearly breached by a full daily candlestick above it and not touching the upper green trend line that would provide earliest indication that this alternate wave count could be correct.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 18.581.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th July, 2014

Upwards movement was expected for Friday.

Although the target is close by and the structure is incomplete, I am changing the wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th July, 2014

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th July, 2014 – Charts Only

I am swapping over my main and alternate wave counts. The new main wave count has a much better fit and makes more sense. Both expect some downwards movement from here.

Charts only tonight. Click charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

GDX daily 2013

Alternate Wave Count.

GDX daily 2013

Minute wave c = 1.618 minute wave a at 21.68.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd July, 2014

Again, more sideways movement is not enough to provide us with clarity. The main Elliott wave count still has about a 60% probability.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd July, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd July, 2014

More sideways movement has still not clarified the situation. The Elliott wave counts at the hourly chart level are adjusted. The triangle idea was invalidated, but a close relative, the ending diagonal, may be unfolding.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd July, 2014