GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd September, 2014

While the alternate Elliott wave count was not technically confirmed for GDX, it has been for Gold. I will follow Gold for indication of which wave count is most likely correct for GDX.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

I have played with how to best draw a channel about this downwards movement, which does not fit perfectly into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques but does fit best if his first technique is used: draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2).

GDX daily 2013

Intermediate wave (4) is most likely over with a very slightly truncated C wave (by 0.25).

If intermediate wave (5) has begun then within it a first and second wave are now very likely to be complete.

Minute wave ii is an expanded flat correction: within it minuette wave (b) is a 112% correction of minuette wave (a), and minuette wave (c) is just 0.08 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a). Within minuette wave (b) subminuette wave b is also an expanded flat correction.

At 22.31 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

I would have more confidence in this wave count with movement below 25.59. A new swing low below that point would indicate at least a mid term trend change to the downside.

At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This target is likely to be several weeks away.