SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th October, 2014

Downwards movement continued a little lower for a fifth wave. I expect now that minor wave 1 is over and minor wave 2 has just begun four days ago.

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Silver weekly 2014

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief (more common), or sometimes they are a very long extension. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks. So far it has lasted 13 weeks and may yet continue towards the target for a further 8 or 21 weeks, if it exhibits a Fibonacci duration. However, please note, Silver does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci durations nor do its waves reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios to each other in terms of duration.

Silver daily 2014

Minor wave 1 is now a complete structure.

Ratios within minor wave 1 are: minute wave iii is 0.180 longer than 4.236 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is 0.034 longer than 0.146 the length of minute wave iii.

Minor wave 2 is most likely to be a deep zigzag ending about 19.382. If should last a few weeks. Minor wave 1 lasted 12 weeks, just one short of a Fibonacci 13. I will look for minor wave 2 to last either a Fibonacci 5 or 8 weeks. This is a rough guideline only because Silver does not often exhibit Fibonacci durations.

There are several structural possibilities for minor wave 2. The only corrective structure it may not be in its entirety is a triangle. Some possible structures, such as an expanded flat or combination, may include a new low below its start. There should be no lower invalidation point for this reason.

Once minute wave a within minor wave 2 is complete I may have some idea which structure may be unfolding, if it is either a clear three or five. If it is ambiguous both possibilities will have to be considered.