Monthly Archives: November 2014

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th November, 2014

Last Elliott Wave analysis of Silver expected upwards movement which is what has happened. This correction is incomplete. I have a new alternate daily wave count for you.

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Silver daily 2014

If intermediate wave (C) is incomplete then only minor wave 1 within it is done. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the end of minor wave 1 above 21.579.

Minor wave 2 is most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 18.812. It should subdivide as a clear three.

Within minor wave 2 minute wave a is a completed leading contracting diagonal. Minute wave b is incomplete. If my analysis of minute wave a as a five wave structure is correct then minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a below 15.067. If this invalidation point is breached then my analysis of minute wave a as a five is wrong and it may have been a three. Silver usually has clear threes and fives, but not always. I am reasonably confident 15.067 will not be breached because the upwards wave fits best and looks like a five.

When minute wave b looks like a three on the daily chart then I would expect a five up for minute wave c. When I know where minute wave b ends and minute wave c begins I can calculate a target for upwards movement using the ratio between a and c. I cannot do that yet.

Alternate Wave Count

Silver daily alternate 2014

By simply moving the degree of labelling within intermediate wave (C) up one degree it is possible that the recent trend change was at cycle degree for Silver. If intermediate wave (C) is over then it was 0.285 longer than 0.382 the length of intermediate wave (A).

This works also for GDX, but it does not work for Gold well at all. Because Gold has the greatest volume and so the clearest looking waves I would let Gold lead here, and so I think this alternate idea for both Silver and GDX has a low probability. If any one of these three markets confirms this alternate (in the case of Gold if its wave count is invalidated at the daily chart level) then I would expect a all three markets may have seen a big trend change.

Within the new upwards trend no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 15.067. Minute wave ii should unfold further as a clear three on the daily chart. It is probably not over yet, and I would expect it to continue for another two (minimum) or six days. It should be choppy and overlapping, mostly sideways. While this unfolds for Silver and GDX, Gold may be completing its second wave correction and beginning a 1-2 for the start of its third wave up.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th November, 2014

Upwards movement was expected for a correction.

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GDX monthly 2014

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks like either a complete five down, or an almost complete five down (if the fifth wave is incomplete). This may be the start of a larger correction. However, I am concerned (after my experience with AAPL) that GDX may not have enough volume for its waves to look always or almost always clearly like threes or fives. I do not have complete confidence that the invalidation point at 66.98 may not be passed.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (3) and (1) (I checked again, and my last analysis was wrong on this point).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

There is alternation between a deep expanded flat for intermediate wave (2) and a very shallow zigzag for intermediate wave (4).

At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality with intermediate wave (1).

I have played with how to best draw a channel about this downwards movement, which does not fit perfectly into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques but does fit best if his first technique is used: draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2).

GDX daily 2014

Minor wave 1 lasted 83 sessions. I would expect minor wave 2 to last a few weeks. So far it has lasted 16 sessions. It may end in a total Fibonacci 21 or even 34 sessions.

Within it minute wave b may look like a clear three on the daily chart. If minute wave a has subdivided as a five wave impulse as labelled then minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a below 16.45.

Thereafter, minute wave c upwards would be highly likely to make a new high above the end of minute wave a at 20.42 to avoid a truncation. It would be most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 23.45.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 27.78. If this price point is passed I would use the alternate below.

Alternate Wave Count

GDX daily alternate 2014

For GDX it is possible that primary wave A is over.

If primary wave A is a complete five wave impulse downwards, then there are no Fiboancci ratio between intermediate waves (1), (3) and (5). However, this is only slightly unusual for GDX in my short experience with this specific market.

If primary wave A is over then within the new upwards trend no second wave may move below the start of its first wave at 16.45.

This alternate would be confirmed when the main wave count is invalidated with a new high above 27.78.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th November, 2014 – Alternate

Because some members are concerned (with good reason) that the main Elliott wave count may be wrong and that Gold may plummet lower next week invalidating it, I have considered what if this happens. What would that wave count look like? Below is my alternate for this scenario.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th November, 2014 – Alternate

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th November, 2014

Both hourly Elliott wave counts were invalidated by downwards movement. The Elliott wave count at the daily chart level remains almost the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th November, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th November, 2014

The triangle ended but the thrust out of it was down, not up. The hourly Elliott wave count was invalidated but the Elliott wave count at the daily chart remains valid.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th November, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th November, 2014

More sideways movement fits the new main Elliott wave count very well, with some adjustment. The larger Elliott wave structure remains the same, and the target changes by $2.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th November, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th November, 2014

Another small green candlestick overall fits the Elliott wave count. The alternate hourly wave count (with a small adjustment) is now much more likely, and so today I am swapping over the main and alternate hourly wave counts.

Summary: The short term target is 1,218. Overall I expect choppy overlapping slowing upwards movement for about another two or three days to complete a leading contracting diagonal. When that is done I expect to see a very deep second wave correction downwards. Alternatively, it is still possible that we may see a strong increase in upwards momentum in the next 24 hours, but this is now less likely. If that happens the target is now at 1,249.

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Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Primary wave 4 is complete and primary wave 5 is unfolding. Primary wave 5 may only subdivide as an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far it looks most likely to be an impulse.

Within primary wave 5 intermediate wave (1) fits perfectly as an impulse. There is perfect alternation within intermediate wave (1): minor wave 2 is a deep zigzag lasting a Fibonacci five days and minor wave 4 is a shallow triangle lasting a Fibonacci eight days, 1.618 the duration of minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 is 9.65 longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.51 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. I am confident this movement is one complete impulse.

Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete expanded flat correction. Within it minor wave A is a double zigzag. The downwards wave labelled minor wave B has a corrective count of seven and subdivides perfectly as a zigzag. Minor wave B is a 172% correction of minor wave A. This is longer than the maximum common length for a B wave within a flat correction at 138%, but within the allowable range of less than twice the length of minor wave A. Minor wave C may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A, and I think the target for it to end would best be calculated at minute degree. At this stage I would expect intermediate wave (2) to end close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) just below 1,281.

Intermediate wave (1) lasted a Fibonacci 13 weeks. So far intermediate wave (2) has just begun its seventh week. I will expect it may continue for another two weeks at least to total a Fibonacci eight, and be 0.618 the duration of intermediate wave (1). Alternatively, intermediate wave (2) may last a total Fibonacci 13 weeks equalling the duration of intermediate wave (1).

The target for primary wave 5 at this stage remains the same. At 956.97 it would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. However, if this target is wrong it may be too low. When intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within it are complete I will calculate the target at intermediate degree and if it changes it may move upwards. This is because waves following triangles tend to be more brief and weak than otherwise expected. A perfect example is on this chart: minor wave 5 to end intermediate wave (1) was particularly short and brief after the triangle of minor wave 4.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 1,345.22. I have confidence this price point will not be passed because the structure of primary wave 5 is incomplete because downwards movement from the end of the triangle of primary wave 4 does not fit as either a complete impulse nor an ending diagonal.

To see a prior example of an expanded flat correction for Gold on the daily chart, and an explanation of this structure, go here.

*Note: I am aware (thank you to members) that other Elliott wave analysts are calling now for the end of primary wave 5 at the low at 1,131. I am struggling to see how this downwards movement fits as a five wave impulse: I would label the second wave within it (labelled minor wave 2) intermediate wave (1), and the fourth wave intermediate wave (4) (labelled as a double zigzag for minor wave A). Thus a complete impulse down would have a second wave as a single zigzag and a fourth wave as a double zigzag, which would have inadequate alternation. Finally, the final fifth wave down would be where I have minor wave B within intermediate wave (2). This downwards wave has a cursory count of seven, and I do not think it subdivides as well as an impulse as it does as a zigzag. If any members come across a wave count showing possible subdivisions of a complete primary wave 5 I would be very curious to see it.

Main Hourly Wave Count

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart 2014

I will show hourly charts on a 2 hourly time frame today to fit all this movement in so you can see the differences between this main count and the alternate below.

This was yesterday’s alternate. It has increased in probability, mostly because the other wave count expected an imminent increase in upwards momentum which has not happened.

This main hourly wave count expects that minor wave C is beginning with a leading contracting diagonal for minute wave i.

Within this possible diagonal minuette wave (i) is a complete zigzag. Within leading diagonals the first, third and fifth waves are most commonly zigzags, but they may also be impulses.

Minuette wave (ii) is a complete zigzag, but much shallower than the common depth of between 0.66 to 0.81, at only 0.40 of minuette wave (i). This reduces the probability of this wave count, and is a good reason for seriously considering the alternate below.

Within the zigzag of minuette wave (iii) subminuette waves a and b are complete. Subminuette wave c looks like it may be completing as an ending contracting diagonal (it must subdivide as a five). At 1,218 subminuette wave c would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

When minuette wave (iii) is a completed zigzag then minuette wave (iv) must overlap back into minuette wave (i) price territory, but may not move below the end of minuette wave (ii) at 1,175.18.

The diagonal is expected to be contracting, so minuette wave (iv) should be shorter than the length of minuette wave (ii) which was 29.59.

If this main hourly wave count is correct then when minute wave i is a completed leading contracting diagonal I would expect a following very deep second wave correction downwards for minute wave ii. When first waves unfold as leading diagonals they are normally followed by very deep second waves.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart 2014

This is a variation on yesterday’s main wave count. Thanks to one of our members, Aleforex, for this idea.

This wave count sees minute wave i as over somewhat higher, as a five wave impulse. Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) is 1.01 short of equality with minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii). This movement fits with MACD, with minuette wave (iii) having the strongest upwards momentum.

There is a slight truncation at the end of minuette wave (ii): subminuette wave c failed to move below the end of subminuette wave a by 0.73. This slightly reduces the probability of this wave count.

Minute wave ii is a complete zigzag, but it is a shallow correction, only just below the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i. This is only a little unusual, and I would not actually judge it to be unusual enough to reduce the probability of this wave count by much at all.

The problem with this wave count is the same as previously. If the middle of a third wave is approaching we should expect to see a strong increase in upwards momentum. This alternate may yet redeem itself when upwards movement substantially increases in the next 24 hours. If that does occur I would use this again as a main wave count.

At this stage this alternate has an overlapping series of four first and second waves, and requires a strong increase in upwards momentum. At 1,249 minute wave iii would reach equality in length with minute wave i. I am using the ratio of equality to calculate the target because minute wave ii was shallow and minute wave i is long.

The adjustment to this wave count now sees downwards corrections mostly within the new base channel about minute waves i and ii. Only micro wave 2 spikes below the channel. This has a better overall look.

Micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1 below 1,186.90.

This analysis is published about 06:42 p.m. EST.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th November, 2014

Upwards movement was expected, along with a strong increase in upwards momentum. This is not what happened. Price is moving sideways to complete a small red candlestick for Monday’s session.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th November, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st November, 2014

Another green candlestick and a new high fits expectations nicely.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st November, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th November, 2014

A small green candlestick fits the Elliott wave count. Downwards movement is finding support about the lower edge of the green base channel on the hourly chart.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th November, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th November, 2014

A new low below 1,181.56 confirmed the alternate hourly Elliott wave count. At that stage downwards movement to 1,173 was expected. Price reached 2.18 short of this target before turning up.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th November, 2014

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th November, 2014

Summary: I expect upwards movement to about 18.812.

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Silver daily 2014

This wave count is changed from last publication. If minor wave 1 was over lower and more recently, then it has a better fit.

Ratios within minor wave 1 are: minute wave iii is 0.81 longer than 4.236 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is just 0.04 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

Minute wave iii has the strongest downwards momentum. Minute wave v ends with an overshoot of the Elliott channel. This impulse has a typical look.

Minor wave 2 is most likely to reach up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 about 18.812. Minor wave 1 lasted 86 days, just three short of a Fibonacci 89. Minor wave 2 may total a Fibonacci 34 or 55 days. So far it has lasted seven days.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th November, 2014

Movement for the last eight days fits this Elliott wave count perfectly.

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GDX daily 2013

Ratios within minor wave 1 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii, and minute wave v is 0.18 short of 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minor wave 1 lasted 83 sessions. I would expect minor wave 2 to last a few weeks. It may last a Fibonacci 13 or 21 sessions, and may end about the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1, with the 0.618 ratio slightly favoured as this is a second wave correction.

This wave count now matches the new wave count for Gold.