Downwards movement did not continue as expected. A new high above 1,272.34 invalidated the Elliott wave count at the hourly chart level.
A new low below 1,272.34 has provided the breakout we were waiting for. This invalidates the main Elliott wave count and confirms the Elliott wave alternate counts.
Silver does not answer the question: will the breakout for Gold, GDX and Silver be upwards or downwards?
Click chart to enlarge.
Minor wave 1 has the best fit. Minor wave 2 is here seen as a double zigzag. The structure is incomplete. A new high above 18.486 would not invalidate this wave count but it would substantially reduce the probability of it.
A new low below 17.322 would invalidate the alternate below and provide a lot of confidence in this main wave count.
This wave count does not have as good a fit within the downwards movement labelled intermediate wave (C).
The blue channel is a base channel. Minor wave 3 should have the power to break above it.
Within the first new five up of a new trend at cycle degree, minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 17.322.
GDX has not made a new high, so it too remains range bound. The situation for all three markets, gold, silver, and GDX remains unclear.
Click charts to enlarge.
For GDX the main and alternate wave counts have exactly the same subdivisions, only the degree of labelling differs. This means it is impossible at this stage to determine which is correct, and they have a completely even probability in my judgement.
A-B-C and 1-2-3 have exactly the same subdivisions as they both subdivide 5-3-5. This main wave count requires a new low below 20.42 for confirmation.
At this stage a new high above 23.22 would substantially reduce the probability (but not finally invalidate) of this wave count. If this happens the alternate will be strongly preferred.
Alternatively, if this main wave count is correct then downwards movement should begin to build momentum as a third wave begins.
This wave count moves everything within intermediate wave (5) up one degree to see it as a complete impulse.
Within the new upwards trend a clear five up should develop on the daily chart. Within that minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 20.42.
Minor wave 2 looks like a zigzag. Minor wave 4 is probably incomplete, and may continue sideways to be better in proportion to minor wave 2 (although GDX does not always have nicely proportioned waves). If minor wave 4 is a flat correction it would exhibit alternation with minor wave 2. This may include a new high above 23.22 for minute wave b, because within a flat the B wave may move beyond the start of its A wave. If this happens this alternate would be strongly favoured.
I do not look at GDX data daily because I must import it manually. If members note a new high above 23.22 or a new low below 20.42, please let me know and I will update charts immediately. This could have a big impact on Gold analysis at this stage.
I had expected a breakout within the last 24 hours, but price continues sideways in an ever narrowing range. We still need a breakout to tell us which Elliott wave count is correct.
The situation is still unclear. Price needs to break out of this sideways / downwards movement to provide clarity. This should happen within the next 24 hours.
Last Elliott wave analysis stated the situation was unclear. It is still unclear, but we have more information today to assist a decision either way.
Downwards movement was expected. The main Elliott wave count is changed substantially today.
A trend change was expected, but price has made a slight new high. At the daily chart the two wave counts are still the same, but I am changing the labelling of this last upwards movement on the hourly chart to fit better with momentum. I have a new daily alternate wave count for you to consider.
Both Elliott wave counts expected a trend change, but upwards movement has continued. This changes the probability of these two Elliott wave counts.
The main hourly wave count was invalidated with a new high, and at that stage the alternate wave count was confirmed. The target for upwards movement to end for the alternate was 1,297. That has now been met.