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This Elliott wave count expects Gold is within a grand super cycle correction.

Historic Analysis.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

Data used for the chart above is averages for the year. It does not include high / low. Note the chart scale is a logarithmic scale. Data on this chart is only from 1833 to 2012. Subsequent price action is analysed on the monthly chart below.

This wave count expects Gold is within a grand super cycle fourth wave correction. Super cycle wave IV may not move into grand super cycle wave I price territory below 21.73.

Grand super cycle wave III lasted from 1931 to 2012, 81 years.

Ratios within grand super cycle wave III are: super cycle wave (I) (17.81 in length) has no Fibonacci ratio to super cycle wave (III) (581.17 in length), and super cycle wave (V) (1,397.94 in length) is 123.56 short of 2.618 the length of super cycle wave (III), an 8.8% variation (I consider less than 10% an acceptable ratio).

Within grand super cycle wave III, super cycle wave (I) lasted a Fibonacci 5 years, super cycle wave (II) lasted a Fibonacci 13 years, super cycle wave (III) lasted 31 years, super cycle wave (IV) lasted a Fibonacci 21 years, and super cycle wave (V) lasted 11 years.

Ratios within super cycle wave (III) are: cycle wave III (125.05 in length) has no adequate Fibonacci ratio cycle wave I (9.70 in length), and cycle wave V (487.72 in length) is 41.99 short of 4.236 the length of cycle wave III, an 8.6% variation.

Within super cycle wave (III), cycle wave I lasted twenty years (just one short of a Fibonacci twenty-one), cycle wave II lasted a Fibonacci one year, cycle wave III lasted a Fibonacci five years, cycle wave IV lasted a Fibonacci one year, and cycle wave V lasted four years.

The lower aqua blue trend line is drawn using a classic technical analysis approach, because an Elliott channel does not fit this data on a log scale. The trend line is drawn from the first two lows within the upwards trend. A parallel copy on the high of super cycle wave (III) gives a nice best fit channel.

I would expect to see grand super cycle wave IV to initially find support at this lower trend line, before breaking thorough this trend line to end below it.

If grand super cycle wave IV ends within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree, then it would reach down as low as 612.56 to 271.04. It would be most likely to end close to (a bit above) the end of the fourth wave of one lesser degree, so just above 271.04. This is most typical of fourth waves.

Monthly Bear Wave Count

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

The bigger picture from 1833 looks like price is now within a grand super cycle fourth wave correction.

Within grand super cycle wave IV, super cycle wave (a) is most likely incomplete. I would not label super cycle wave (a) as close to completion because super cycle waves should last decades.

Within super cycle wave (a), only cycle wave a is nearly complete for this bear wave count.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond its start above 1,921.15, because cycle wave a is subdividing as a five wave impulse.

Monthly Bull Wave Count

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

The bull wave count expects that cycle wave a is complete and cycle wave b upwards has begun.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond its start above 1,921.15, because cycle wave a was a five wave structure.

Cycle wave b should last one to several years and must subdivide as a corrective structure. There are more than thirteen possible structures at this early stage, but is most likely to be a zigzag, triangle or combination.

When cycle wave b is complete, then another five down for cycle wave c may complete a zigzag for super cycle wave (a).

Alternatively, super cycle wave (a) may be unfolding as an impulse: instead of labelling it cycle waves a-b-c it may be relabelled cycle waves 1-2-3-4-5; the subdivisions would be the same. This idea does not diverge for several years yet.

If super cycle wave (a) is a three wave structure, then super cycle wave (b) may make a new price extreme beyond its start above 1,921.15 as in an expanded flat or running triangle.

If super cycle wave (a) subdivides as a five wave structure, then super cycle wave (b) may not make a new price extreme beyond its start above 1,921.15

This analysis is published about 09:22 p.m. EST.