Elliott wave charts only today.
MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
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DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
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ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
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Although this is labelled as an alternate, I will not favour either wave count.
GDX – EW chart today.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2016/1/20/33517445-14533009056346598_origin.png
“Looking out to the future, and given that I do not believe that the bear market lows have been struck as yet, my primary expectation is that GDX will now recover some of the losses incurred over the past week and will head back up towards 14.50. Like gold I expect it to top out within the next 7-10 trading days and I believe we will then decline towards 10 by late March. At that point, and on the proviso that gold has dropped towards $900 and the large speculator category is net short, I would consider that a price level at which we could have a bear market low in place.”
Oil and stock market crashing today is sending up gold but not miners they are back down to Tuesday’s close amount even though gold almost $20 higher.
Lara, thank you for the GDX update! After today’s hard selloff which is not shown on your chart, maybe GDX won’t go as high as you show, so I’d like to get your thoughts on another version showing Minor wave 4 complete and we are in the final 5th wave down to complete Intermediate wave 5 and Primary wave A. Thoughts?
I just took a closer look at the last leg down and it looks like a 5 wave pattern on the hourly and daily charts. To link this count to Gold, here are my thoughts:
**If the Main Gold count is in play, then we could be at Minute ((1)) of Minor 5 of Intermediate 5 of Primary A, so there would be a ways to go to get to the bottom.
**If the alternate Gold count is in play, then we could be at or near Minor 5 of Intermediate 5 of Primary A. THIS COULD BE THE BOTTOM! Thoughts?
It’s an entirely viable count.
And that’s one problem I have with GDX at this time. I can see multiple possibilities.
Minor 2 was a single zigzag and deep at 0.59. Minor wave 4 would be a double zigzag (it will also fit as a single zigzag, see a triangle for the B wave in it) and shallow at 0.2.
There is alternation in depth but they’re the same (or almost the same) structure. That reduces the probability.
Minor 2 lasted 51 days. Minor 4 would have lasted 33 days. Both are close to Fibonacci numbers (55 and 34) and minor 4 would be 0.618 the duration of minor 3.
On balance I think its a reasonable wave count. I’ll add it to my analysis and keep an eye on it. And yes, that could mean its all over. But 15.01 would have to be breached for that to be confirmed.
Thanks Dreamer!
Great. Thanks for the feedback.
With gold stocks in US equities market going in direction diferently than XAU price, this timely update is MUCH appreciated! Thank you Lara.
Awesome, thanks!