Monthly Archives: January 2016

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th January, 2016

Downwards movement continues exactly as expected for US Oil.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th January, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th January, 2016

Downwards movement was expected to end soon and be followed by upwards movement.

There was no more downwards movement. Price turned and moved higher.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th January, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th January, 2016

Downwards movement was expected to end soon and be followed by upwards movement.

There was no more downwards movement. Price turned and moved higher.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th January, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th January, 2016

The main Elliott wave count expected overall downwards movement to end within a range of 1,076.7 – 1,068.64.

Price is now within that range.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th January, 2016

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th January, 2016

Last week’s Silver analysis expected a sideways correction to continue.

Sideways movement for the week fits the overall idea that price is in a correction.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th January, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th January, 2016

Downwards movement has breached the invalidation point on the main Elliott wave count, but this was allowed for in the alternate.

Overall, a correction against a trend was expected to be continuing.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th January, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th January, 2016

Another downwards day on lighter volume fits the Elliott wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th January, 2016

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2016

Elliott wave and traditional technical analysis of NZDUSD.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

NZDUSD monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary 3 should end when RSI indicates oversold and most likely not before. Currently RSI has returned just above oversold.

Primary 3 would reach 2.618 the length of primary 1 at 0.49809. The structure of primary 3 is incomplete.

NZDUSD daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Within intermediate wave (3), minor waves 1, 2, and 3 are most likely complete. Minor wave 4 is now seen as an incomplete triangle.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1.

At 0.60604 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Minor waves 2 and 4 exhibit alternation: minor wave 2 was a deeper double zigzag and minor wave 4 is a more shallow triangle.

Minor wave 4 is breaching a channel drawn about this movement using Elliott’s first technique. The channel may be redrawn when the triangle is complete.

The triangle will only remain valid if price remains below the high of minute wave c within it. Minute wave e is most likely to end short of the a-c trend line, and it may not move above the end of minute wave c at 0.68824. If price breaks above this point, then minor wave 4 is morphing into a combination.

The structure of minor wave 4 is incomplete.

To the downside, if minute wave d of the triangle moves lower, then it may not move substantially below the end of minute wave b below 0.64292. A new low below that point would indicate that minor wave 4 is most likely over and the downwards trend has resumed.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

ADX is flattening off in recent days indicating the market is range bound not trending. This supports the Elliott wave count.

ATR agrees. It is flat to declining. This indicator at this time is clearer than ADX. The market is not currently trending.

As price rises, it comes on a decline in volume. As price falls, it comes on a rise in volume. This volume profile is bearish and supports the Elliott wave count in terms of overall expected direction.

When NZDUSD trends it tends to find resistance at the 21 day EMA. Currently, it is whipsawing about this EMA, typical of a consolidating market.

My only concern with the volume profile is volume is not overall declining as price moves sideways. An overall decline in volume would be expected, if a fourth wave triangle is unfolding. I expect surprises may be to the downside for this market at this time because the last fall in price came on an increase in volume.

At the daily chart level, RSI is not oversold.

This analysis is published @ 10:17 p.m. EST.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2016

Downwards movement continues exactly as expected for US Oil.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2016

Price behaved exactly as expected.

Overall, lower movement for an inside day continues the fourth wave correction that Gold is currently in.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th January, 2016

A short term target for a fourth wave correction to begin was 1,113. Price turned at 1,112.19.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th January, 2016

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th January, 2016

Last analysis expected a correction to complete with some upwards movement to a target at 14.695 – 14.855.

Price has moved higher so far reaching up to 14.832.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th January, 2016