Monthly Archives: August 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2016

Downwards movement was expected from yesterday’s analysis.

Summary: While price remains within the narrow pink channel, then assume the short term downwards trend remains intact. If the channel is breached and if price moves above 1,330.01, then assume the upwards trend has most likely returned.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Thereafter, this wave count differs from the two alternates.

This main wave count will expect primary wave 3 to be longer than primary wave 1. Because this is very common, this is the main wave count and it expects the most common scenario is most likely. At 1,582 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1.

Only intermediate wave (1) so far is complete within primary wave 3. Intermediate wave (2) may be close to completion. It may find support at the lower edge of the base channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2. Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.

Minute wave iv should now be complete. A breach of the dark blue channel drawn about intermediate wove (2) would provide trend channel confirmation that intermediate wave (2) is over and intermediate wave (3) is underway.

At this stage, a new high above 1,330.01 could not be a continuation of minute wave iv, so at that stage minute wave iv and minor wave C would have to be over. A new high above 1,330.01 would provide strong confidence in a trend change and the resumption of the prior upwards trend.

At 1,288 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i. If this target is wrong, it may be slightly too high. Price may find strong support at the lower edge of the base channel; this trend line may stop price moving lower.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07.

Primary wave 2 lasted 56 days (one more than a Fibonacci 55). So far intermediate wave (2) is more brief in duration. It has lasted 40 days and may be just one or two days away from completion.

Keep the small narrow pink channel on daily and hourly charts. Draw a channel about intermediate wave (2) using Elliott’s technique for a correction (blue lines). Price is finding support at the lower edge. If this wave count is wrong, then it may be in expecting more downwards movement. The lower edge of this channel may stop price from falling further.

With this wave count expecting a third wave at two large degrees to begin very soon, look out for surprises to the upside at this stage.

HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure.

Within minor wave C, the structure may be still incomplete. Minute wave iv may have been a relatively brief and shallow zigzag exhibiting only alternation in depth with minute wave ii.

At 1,288 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i.

So far, for this main wave count, the structure within minute wave v looks incomplete. There is too much overlapping for the middle of its third wave to have passed. This wave count expects to see another one or two days of downwards movement.

Within minuette wave (iii), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,315.89.

ALTERNATE HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate is new.

It is possible that minute wave iv was over more recently as labelled. There is still only alternation in depth between minute waves ii and iv. Both are zigzags.

Minute wave iv may be very close to completion. It may end when price again touches the lower edge of the dark blue channel. After a final slight new low below the end of minuette wave (iii) at 1,305.32, then intermediate wave (2) could be over.

Thereafter, a breach of the narrow pink channel that contains recent downwards movement would provide some confidence in a trend change. A new high above 1,315.89 would provide first price confidence. A new high above 1,330.01 would provide stronger confidence. At that stage, upwards movement could not be a continuation of minute wave iv, so minute waves iv and v would have to be over.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that primary wave 3 is over and shorter than primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 shows stronger volume than primary wave 1 (see technical analysis weekly chart).

If primary wave 3 is over, then the current consolidation for Gold would be primary wave 4.

Primary wave 2 was a relatively shallow 0.35 expanded flat correction. Primary wave 4 may be unfolding as a deeper zigzag which would exhibit perfect alternation.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,282.68.

Primary wave 5 would be limited to no longer than equality in length with primary wave 3, so that the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met. Primary wave 5 would have a limit of 174.84.

This wave count expects more downwards movement to complete a five wave impulse for intermediate wave (C) in the same way as the main wave count expects a five wave impulse down to complete minor wave C. Only the degree of labelling differs; this wave count is one degree higher.

The hourly charts would be exactly the same except for the degree of labelling.

It is no longer possible for intermediate wave (4) to be a triangle. Within a contracting or barrier triangle, minor wave C may not move beyond the end of minor wave A. If intermediate wave (4) is labelled as a triangle, then minor wave A would be at the low of 1,310.84. The new low today to 1,305.82 invalidates this idea, so this may not be minor wave C.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

A strong downwards week with an increase in volume supports the main and alternate III wave counts. Overall, volume is still declining and price remains range bound.

The prior two green weekly candlesticks had long upper shadows which was bearish.

Price may find some support about 1,310.

On Balance Volume at the end of last week has come down to find support at the purple trend line. This may help to stop price falling much further.

RSI is not extreme. There is some hidden bullish divergence with price and RSI: RSI has made a lower low below the low of 25th of July but price has made a higher low. This indicates some weakness to this downwards movement. It is more likely to be a smaller correction than a sustainable trend.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Price is still range bound and today has reached support. During this range bound period, which began back on 7th of June, it is two upwards days of 8th of July and 26th of August that have strongest volume. This suggests an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. This trick usually (not always) works well for Gold. This supports the Elliott wave counts.

Volume today is slightly stronger than yesterday, but it is still relatively light.

Price should be expected to find strong support about 1,310 to 1,305. This is an area of prior resistance and support.

On Balance Volume may be finding support today at the yellow trend line. A break below this yellow line would be a bearish signal, but only a weak one because this line has recently been weakened. A break above the purple line would be a bullish signal.

RSI is not yet extreme. There is room for price to fall further. There is no divergence today to indicate weakness between price and RSI.

ADX continues to decline indicating the market is not trending. The +DX and -DX lines continue to whipsaw about each other, typical of a consolidating market. ATR continues to agree as it too is declining.

No clear trend is evident. This downwards movement looks like a swing within a larger consolidation.

Stochastics is oversold and exhibits multi day divergence now with price. With price now at support, an end to this downwards swing would be a reasonable expectation. An upwards swing should be expected to begin about here.

Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen for five days in a row. A trend may be about to return.

The shorter term 13 day moving average is pointing downwards and price is below it. The short term trend is down. The mid term 55 day moving average has just turned and is also pointing downwards today. This indicates the mid term trend may have changed to down. The shorter 13 day average has not yet crossed below the mid term 55 day average yet though, so a trend change has not yet been indicated from up to down.

This analysis is published @ 09:32 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2016

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2016

Last GDX technical analysis was very bearish.

Price has continued lower.

Continue reading GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th August, 2016

The main Elliott wave count has been confirmed with a new low below 1,310.84.

Summary: Some more downwards movement this week looks most likely, to about 1,279. If this target is wrong, it may be a little too low. A new high now above 1,330.01 would confirm downwards movement as over and a third wave up as just beginning.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Thereafter, this wave count differs from the two alternates.

This main wave count will expect primary wave 3 to be longer than primary wave 1. Because this is very common, this is the main wave count and it expects the most common scenario is most likely. At 1,582 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1.

Only intermediate wave (1) so far is complete within primary wave 3. Intermediate wave (2) may be close to completion. It may find support at the lower edge of the base channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2. Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,330.01.

At 1,279 minor wave C would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A. Price may end downwards movement when it finds support at the lower edge of the maroon base channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2. Because this target at 1,279 would expect an overshoot of the lower edge of the base channel, the target may be too low. Support at the base channel may not allow price to move this low.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07.

Primary wave 2 lasted 56 days (one more than a Fibonacci 55). So far intermediate wave (2) is more brief in duration. It has lasted 39 days and may be just a few days away from completion.

Draw a small channel about minor wave C, using Elliott’s technique, and copy it over to the hourly chart.

At this stage, it is just possible to see a complete structure for minor wave C downwards. A new high above 1,330.01 at any stage short term could not be a continuation of minor wave C, so at that stage minor wave C would have to be over. A new high above 1,330.01 would tell us now that intermediate wave (2) should be over and intermediate wave (3) upwards should be underway.

HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure.

Minor wave C is unfolding as an impulse. The question today is whether or not minute wave iv within it is complete.

Minute wave ii was a deep 0.73 zigzag lasting six days. Given the guideline of alternation, minute wave iv would most likely be a very shallow sideways flat, combination or triangle. To have good proportion with minute wave ii, it is likely that minute wave iv will last at least three or four days, if not longer.

Within flats, combinations and triangles, the first wave subdivides as a three. This would now be a complete zigzag for minuette wave (a) or (w).

Within expanded flats and running triangles, minuette wave (b) may make a new price extreme beyond the start of minuette wave (a). The new low today may be part of minute wave iv. There is no maximum limit for X waves within combinations; they too may make new price extremes beyond the start of W waves.

If minute wave iv is a flat correction, then it would be an expanded flat. These are very common structures. The normal range for minuette wave (b) would be 1 to 1.38 the length of minuette wave (a), at 1,315.42 to 1,311.82. Minuette wave (b) is now longer than the common length. There is no rule stating a maximum limit for B waves within flat corrections, but there is an Elliott wave convention which states that when the potential B wave is longer than twice the length of the potential A wave the idea of a flat correction should be discarded based upon extremely low probability. That price point here would be below 1,305.95.

So far minuette wave (b) should be complete and is 1.78 the length of minuette wave (a).

If minute wave iv is unfolding as an expanded flat, then a target for minuette wave (c) would be just below the invalidation point at 1,330. Minuette wave (c) would be close to 2.618 the length of minuette wave (a). Minuette wave (c) would be extremely likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 1,324.89 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat.

If minute wave iv is unfolding as a triangle, then minuette wave (c) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (a) above 1,324.89. A triangle would be invalid above this point. Thereafter, price should move sideways in an ever decreasing range for another few days for a triangle to be complete. MACD should hover about zero. At this stage, a triangle does not look likely because MACD has moved too far below zero.

If minute wave iv is unfolding as a combination, then within it the first structure labelled minuette wave (w) would be a complete zigzag. The zigzag would be joined by a three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled minuette wave (x), which should now be over. The second structure in the double would very likely be a flat correction but may also be a triangle. It should end about the same level as minuette wave (w) at 1,324.85, so that the whole structure moves sideways. Minuette wave (y) should last about two or three days.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,330.01.

ALTERNATE HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that minute wave iv is over as a brief and very shallow zigzag. Minute wave iv would exhibit little alternation with minute wave ii: they would both be zigzags. There would be some alternation in depth: minute wave ii was deep and minute wave iv was shallow. There would be a little alternation within the structure: minute wave ii had a long complicated B wave and minute wave iv had a brief B wave.

Minute wave ii lasted six days. If minute wave iv is over already, it would have lasted only one day. The proportions at the daily chart level do not look very good, but sometimes Gold does exhibit fourth waves which are more brief and shallow than its second waves. This tendency normally shows up in a third wave though and not so often in a C wave.

If minute wave iv is over, then at 1,288 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i. This would see the base channel on the daily chart only very slightly overshot.

Within minute wave v, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,324.89.

Due to the lack of alternation and the poor proportions between minute waves iv and ii, this wave count is possible but has a low probability. It should only be used if price makes a new low short term below 1,305.95.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that primary wave 3 is over and shorter than primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 shows stronger volume than primary wave 1 (see technical analysis weekly chart).

If primary wave 3 is over, then the current consolidation for Gold would be primary wave 4.

Primary wave 2 was a relatively shallow 0.35 expanded flat correction. Primary wave 4 may be unfolding as a deeper zigzag which would exhibit perfect alternation.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,282.68.

Primary wave 5 would be limited to no longer than equality in length with primary wave 3, so that the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met. Primary wave 5 would have a limit of 174.84.

This wave count expects more downwards movement to complete a five wave impulse for intermediate wave (C) in the same way as the main wave count expects a five wave impulse down to complete minor wave C. Only the degree of labelling differs; this wave count is one degree higher.

The hourly chart would be exactly the same except for the degree of labelling.

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may be a regular contracting triangle. If sideways movement continues in an ever decreasing range, then that idea would be published. At this stage, a zigzag looks more likely because the subdivisions have a slightly better fit.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

A strong downwards week with an increase in volume supports the main and alternate III wave counts. Overall, volume is still declining and price remains range bound.

The prior two green weekly candlesticks had long upper shadows which was bearish.

Price may find some support about 1,310.

On Balance Volume at the end of last week has come down to find support at the purple trend line. This may help to stop price falling much further.

RSI is not extreme. There is some hidden bullish divergence with price and RSI: RSI has made a lower low below the low of 25th of July but price has made a higher low. This indicates some weakness to this downwards movement. It is more likely to be a smaller correction than a sustainable trend.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Overall, price remains range bound with resistance about 1,375 and support about 1,310 – 1,305. This range bound period began back on 7th of July. During this range bound period, it is the two upwards days of 8th of July and 26th of August which have strongest volume suggesting an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. This supports all three Elliott wave counts.

Yesterday saw an upwards day with lighter volume; the rise in price was not supported by volume. Now a strong downwards day comes with a slight further decline in volume. A decline in volume is typical of a consolidating market, and volume should be expected to decline further towards the end of the consolidation. In the short term, this decline in volume suggests some upwards reaction about here, so this supports the main hourly Elliott wave count over the alternate hourly count.

The 55 day moving average has not provided support.

On Balance Volume has moved down and away from the purple line which is now strengthened and is providing resistance. OBV may find some support at the yellow line, but this line has been weakened recently with a breach.

Price should find support in the area of 1,310 to 1,305.

RSI is not extreme. There is room for price to rise or fall. There is no divergence today between price and RSI to indicate weakness.

ADX continues to decline and the +DX and -DX lines are whipsawing about each other. ADX indicates this market is not trending. ATR agrees as it too continues overall to decline.

Stochastics is oversold. Price has not yet reached support at 1,310 though, so a little more downwards movement from price may be expected before this downwards swing is over. There is some small day to day divergence between Stochastics and price: price today made a slight new low but Stochastics did not. This indicates weakness in price. Price may not be able to get down to touch support. This divergence suggests that downwards movement may be over for this swing.

Bollinger Bands are widening now for four days in a row. A trend may be beginning to return. If it is, then it would be down. However, this contradicts ADX and ATR.

This analysis is published @ 07:30 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th August, 2016

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th August, 2016

Last week’s classic technical analysis saw weakness to upwards movement and expected a downwards reaction.

Price has moved sideways for the week.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th August, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th August, 2016

All three daily Elliott wave counts remain valid.

The invalidation / confirmation point may now be moved lower today.

Summary: Some more downwards movement next week looks most likely, to about 1,279. If this target is wrong, it may be a little too low. In the short term, a new high now above 1,330.01 would be confirmation that the correction is likely over and the next wave up has begun.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Thereafter, this wave count differs from the two alternates.

This main wave count will expect primary wave 3 to be longer than primary wave 1. Because this is very common, this is the main wave count and it expects the most common scenario is most likely. At 1,582 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1.

Only intermediate wave (1) so far is complete within primary wave 3. Intermediate wave (2) may be close to completion. It may find support at the lower edge of the base channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2. Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,330.01. If price moves above 1,330.01 in the short term, then it may also be possible that minute wave iii is not over. No second wave correction within minute wave iii may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,356.85. A new high above 1,356.85 would invalidated any continuation of minute wave iii and provide further confidence to the alternate wave count.

At 1,279 minor wave C would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A. Price may end downwards movement when it finds support at the lower edge of the maroon base channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07.

Primary wave 2 lasted 56 days (one more than a Fibonacci 55). So far intermediate wave (2) is more brief in duration. It has lasted 38 days and may be just a few days away from completion.

Draw a small channel about minor wave C, using Elliott’s technique, and copy it over to the hourly chart.

HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. This wave count would be confirmed with a new low below 1,310.84.

Minor wave C still needs more downwards movement. Within minor wave C, minute wave iii is now complete. Minute wave ii was a deep zigzag, so to exhibit alternation minute wave iv may be a more shallow sideways structure and would most likely be a combination, flat or triangle. Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,330.01.

When minute wave iv is over, then the target may be calculated at minute degree also. At that stage, it may change or widen to a zone. If it changes, it may be moved upwards.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The duration of minute wave ii now gives this wave count the wrong look. Lower degree second waves should be more brief in duration than second waves of a higher degree. Here, minute wave ii has lasted 19 days, minor wave 2 lasted 11 days, and intermediate wave (2) lasted 6 days.

At 1,437 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). At 1,552 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,310.84.

A new high above 1,356.85 would add further confidence to this wave count. At that stage, alternate ideas for the main wave count would be invalidated.

ALTERNATE HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

A final fifth wave down would still be required for this alternate wave count. Upwards movement for Friday’s session will not subdivide as a five; it fits only as a three because of the deep spike labelled sub micro wave (B).

Friday’s session would have to be another fourth wave correction for this alternate.

After a slight new low, then this alternate wave count would expect upwards movement.

A new high above 1,339.48 is required for confidence in this wave count. At that stage, a third wave up at four degrees should be expected to be in the very early stages.

ALTERNATE III DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that primary wave 3 is over and shorter than primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 shows stronger momentum and volume than primary wave 1 (see technical analysis weekly chart).

If primary wave 3 is over, then the current consolidation for Gold would be primary wave 4.

Primary wave 2 was a relatively shallow 0.35 expanded flat correction. Primary wave 4 may be unfolding as a deeper zigzag which would exhibit perfect alternation.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,282.68.

Primary wave 5 would be limited to no longer than equality in length with primary wave 3, so that the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met. Primary wave 5 would have a limit of 174.84.

This wave count expects more downwards movement to complete a five wave impulse for intermediate wave (C) in the same way as the main wave count expects a five wave impulse down to complete minor wave C. Only the degree of labelling differs; this wave count is one degree higher.

The hourly chart would be exactly the same except for the degree of labelling.

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may be a regular contracting triangle. If sideways movement continues in an ever decreasing range, then that idea would be published. At this stage, a zigzag looks more likely because the subdivisions have a slightly better fit.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

A strong downwards week with an increase in volume supports the main and alternate III wave counts. Overall, volume is still declining and price remains range bound.

The prior two green weekly candlesticks had long upper shadows which was bearish.

Price may find some support about 1,310.

On Balance Volume at the end of last week has come down to find support at the purple trend line. This may help to stop price falling much further.

RSI is not extreme. There is some hidden bullish divergence with price and RSI: RSI has made a lower low below the low of 25th of July but price has made a higher low. This indicates some weakness to this downwards movement. It is more likely to be a smaller correction than a sustainable trend.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Overall, price remains range bound with resistance about 1,375 and support about 1,310 – 1,305. This range bound period began back on 7th of July. During this range bound period, it is the two upwards days of 8th of July and 26th of August which have strongest volume suggesting an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. This supports all three Elliott wave counts.

The long lower wick of today’s candlestick is bullish as is the colour. However, the decline in volume is bearish; this upwards movement for Monday is not supported by volume, so it is more likely a counter trend movement (within a small downwards swing within the larger consolidation) than the start of a more sustainable upwards swing.

The 55 day moving average may provide some support here.

On Balance Volume may find resistance at the purple line. This may assist to halt the rise in price. A break above the purple line would be a reasonably strong bullish signal.

RSI is not extreme. There is room for price to rise or fall. There is no divergence today between price and RSI to indicate weakness.

ADX continues to decline and the +DX and -DX lines are whipsawing about each other. ADX indicates this market is not trending. ATR agrees as it too continues overall to decline.

Stochastics is oversold. Price has not yet reached support at 1,310 though, so a little more downwards movement from price may be expected before this downwards swing is over. This approach expects the same movement next as the main Elliott wave count.

Bollinger Bands are widening now for three days in a row. A trend may be beginning to return. If it is, then it would be down. However, this contradicts ADX and ATR.

Overall, the decline in volume for Monday suggests a little more downwards movement ahead for price to find support about 1,310 – 1,305 to end this downwards swing.

This analysis is published @ 09:16 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th August, 2016

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th August, 2016

Last analysis expected upwards movement towards a target at 36.21.

Price did move higher but fell 4.42 short of the target.

Summary: Classic technical analysis is very bearish today for GDX. A downwards trend is in place. This strongly favours the alternate monthly and alternate daily wave counts. A new low below 26.17 would indicate a much deeper correction should continue for a B wave, likely to end below 14.339. A new high above 31.79 would indicate an impulse upwards is continuing, target 35.15 and limit 36.34.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Although the wave counts are labelled “main” and “alternate”, the alternates are favoured. This is the order in which they were developed and not the order in which they are more likely.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The whole wave down for cycle wave a subdivides well as a five wave impulse. However, GDX does not have adequate volume to produce typical looking Elliott wave structures. As always, this wave count comes with the strong caveat that this market is not sufficient in volume for a reliable Elliott wave analysis. It is a rough guide only. The direction expected from the Elliott wave count should be fairly reliable, but targets and invalidation points may not be.

Ratios within cycle wave a are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves 1 and 3, and primary wave 5 is 0.33 short of 0.236 the length of primary wave 3.

Ratios within primary wave 3 are: intermediate wave (3) is 3.48 short of 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate waves (3) or (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.02 longer than equality in length with minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is 0.38 longer than equality in length with minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

Within primary wave 5, there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between intermediate waves (1), (3) and (5).

The black channel is a best fit; this movement does not fit into an Elliott channel. The channel is breached very clearly and price has made a major new swing high above 17.04. A trend change was confirmed in February.

If analysis of downwards movement is correct that cycle wave a has subdivided as a five wave structure, then this tells us two things:

1. The bear market for GDX must be incomplete because a five may not be a corrective structure, so this must only be wave A.

2. Cycle wave b may not make a new high above the start of cycle wave a at 66.98.

Cycle wave b may be any one of 23 possible corrective structures. It may be a swift sharp zigzag, or it may be a sideways structure such as a flat, combination or triangle. It should last one to several years. It is possible that it is over. An alternate at the end of this analysis looks at this possibility.

The first movement up for cycle wave b must be a clear five wave structure for a trend of this magnitude. It looks like this completed at the Magee trend line where price found resistance and rebounded down. This line is now breached, providing further strong confidence that GDX is in a bull market for a longer term.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

If primary wave A is subdividing as a five and is incomplete, then intermediate wave (4) must end here.

Intermediate wave (3) is shorter than intermediate wave (1). This limits intermediate wave (5) to no longer than equality in length with intermediate wave (3), so that the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met. This limit is at 36.34.

At 35.15 intermediate wave (5) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

A new high above 31.79 would invalidate both alternates and provide strong confirmation of this first wave count.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible to see a 5-3-5 upwards complete. This may be a zigzag for primary wave A if cycle wave b is unfolding as a flat correction, or a zigzag labelled primary wave W if cycle wave b is unfolding as a double zigzag.

If cycle wave b is a flat correction, then within it primary wave B must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of primary wave A. This minimum requirement for a flat correction would be met at 14.339.

If cycle wave b is a double zigzag, then there is no minimum requirement for primary wave X within it; primary wave X needs to subdivide as a corrective structure. X waves within double zigzags are normally relatively brief and shallow.

A new low below 26.17 would invalidate the main wave count and provide some confirmation of this alternate.

ALTERNATE MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly 2016
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It is possible that cycle wave b is now a complete zigzag. It may have ended just short of the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio and looks like a clear three wave structure on the monthly chart.

If cycle wave a is a five and cycle wave b is a three, then cycle wave c downwards must subdivide as a five. Within cycle wave c, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 31.79.

In trying to calculate a target for cycle wave c the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio yields a truncation and the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio yields a negative value. Cycle wave c may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to cycle wave a.

Cycle wave c would be very likely to make at least a slight new low below the end of cycle wave a at 12.40 to avoid a truncation.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY

GDX weekly 2016
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Price may find some support here about 25.10. However, price has moved strongly lower for the last two weeks to make an important new low below 27.45, and it has done so on increasing volume. Volume is supporting downwards movement. It is likely that price will continue lower.

The next strong area of support is about 21.75.

Overall, volume is declining as price has been moving higher since January. The rise in price is not supported well by volume. This favours a bearish outlook mid term for GDX.

ATR has been strong and increasing. Now it is levelling off, so some decline would be expected.

ADX is very extreme, well above 35, and is now declining. ADX is indicating the trend is most likely exhausted here for GDX but a trend change has not yet been indicated.

On Balance Volume is tightly constrained between the yellow support line and the purple resistance line. A breakout by OBV may indicate the next direction for price, short to mid term.

RSI is returning from overbought after exhibiting double negative divergence with price at the last high.

Overall, this analysis is very bearish for GDX at this time.

DAILY

GDX daily 2016
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It looks like GDX has had a trend change: It has made an important new low, volume offers some support to downwards movement, and ADX indicates a downwards trend.

ATR is now increasing again after some decline.

With ATR and ADX in agreement, it should be assumed that GDX is in a downwards trend at this time.

On Balance Volume is finding some support at the purple line. This is assisting to bounce up price. How price and OBV behave after this bounce will be indicative. If OBV breaks below the purple line it would be offering a strong bearish signal.

With price right at the lower edge of the Bollinger Bands today, this may also assist to bounce up price. During a trend GDX can remain at an extreme of its Bollinger Bands for several days running though.

RSI is not yet extreme. There is room for price to fall. A low may not be expected until RSI is extreme and then exhibits divergence with price.

Stochastics is extreme, but this oscillator may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market. It does not yet exhibit any divergence with price to indicate weakness.

This analysis is published @ 01:38 a.m. EST.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th August, 2016

The main Elliott wave count expected upwards movement and the alternate expected sideways movement.

Price has moved lower.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th August, 2016