Monthly Archives: January 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2017

Downwards movement was expected for Tuesday but did not happen.

Price has moved higher but remains below the invalidation point on the hourly Elliott wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2017

Price has moved sideways for the week. A new Elliott wave count fits sideways movement.

Summary: A new high above 55.24 would indicate an upwards breakout, and the target would be 55.60. A new low below 50.91 would indicate a downwards breakout, and the target would be 28.61 minimum, possibly 25.59.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Within the bear market, cycle wave b is seen as ending in May 2011. Thereafter, a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c begins.

Primary wave 1 is a short impulse lasting five months. Primary wave 2 is a very deep 0.94 zigzag lasting 22 months. Primary wave 3 is a complete impulse with no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. It lasted 30 months.

Primary wave 4 is likely to exhibit alternation with primary wave 2. Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. Within all of these types of structures, the first movement subdivides as a three. The least likely structure for primary wave 4 is a zigzag.

Primary wave 4 is likely to end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree; intermediate wave (4) has its range from 42.03 to 62.58.

Primary wave 4 may end if price comes up to touch the upper edge of the maroon channel. The upper edge of this channel has been pushed up to sit on the end of intermediate wave (2) within primary wave 3.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be shallow to exhibit alternation in depth with primary wave 2. So far it has passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 45.52. It may now continue to move mostly sideways in a large range.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

At this stage, primary wave 4 has completed intermediate wave (A) only. Intermediate wave (B) is incomplete.

WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The whole structure of primary wave 4 is seen here in more detail.

The first wave labelled intermediate wave (A) is seen as a double zigzag, which is classified as a three.

Intermediate wave (B) is also a three. This means primary wave 4 is most likely unfolding as a flat correction if my analysis of intermediate wave (A) is correct. Flats are very common structures.

Intermediate wave (B) began with a zigzag downwards. This indicates it too is unfolding most likely as a flat correction.

Within intermediate wave (B), the zigzag upwards for minor wave B is a 1.29 correction of minor wave A. This indicates intermediate wave (B) may be unfolding as an expanded flat, the most common type.

The normal range for intermediate wave (B) within a flat correction for primary wave 4 is from 1 to 1.38 the length of intermediate wave (A) giving a range from 26.06 to 16.33.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

Within the larger expanded flat correction of primary wave 4, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61 or below.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave B is seen in this main wave count as a complete single zigzag. The upwards wave labelled minute wave a is seen as a five wave impulse.

Minor wave C downwards should have begun. Within minor wave C, minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 55.24.

Minor wave C downwards must subdivide as a five wave structure.

So far, minute wave i may be complete and minute wave ii may be an incomplete expanded flat correction. Within minute wave ii, minuette wave (c) must be a five wave structure that so far looks to be unfolding as an ending contracting diagonal that’s incomplete. The classic pattern equivalent is a rising wedge.

Contracting diagonals almost always end with a small overshoot of the 1-3 trend line. If this is seen, then expect an end to upwards movement as very likely.

Minuette wave (c) is very likely to make a slight new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 54.32 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat.

A new low below 50.91 would invalidate the alternate wave count below and provide some confidence in this main wave count.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave B is seen as an incomplete double zigzag. The first wave up labelled minute wave w is seen as a zigzag. This is the main difference between the two wave counts.

Minute wave y must subdivide as a zigzag. Sideways movement over the last few weeks may be a triangle within it for minuette wave (b).

Minuette wave (c) would be very likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 54.50 to avoid a truncation.

The normal range for minor wave B within the larger flat correction of intermediate wave (B) is from 1 to 1.38 the length of minor wave A, giving a range from 51.67 to 56.41. The target calculated for minuette wave (c) to end would see price end within this range.

In the short term, within minuette wave (c), the correction for subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 50.91.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

US Oil Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price continues to move sideways with declining volume. Price is bound by resistance about 54.50 and support about 50.35. During this sideways consolidation, it is an upwards day which has strongest volume suggesting an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. This supports the new alternate Elliott wave count.

ADX is flat and below 15 indicating the market is not currently trending; it is consolidating. The +DX and -DX lines are whipsawing about each other. There is no clear trend.

ATR is overall flat in agreement with ADX that Oil is consolidating.

On Balance Volume is bound by resistance and support. No breakout yet has occurred to indicate the next direction for price. OBV has come down to touch the yellow support line today. This may assist to halt the fall in price here. This supports the alternate Elliott wave count.

RSI is hovering about neutral. There is plenty of room for price to rise or fall.

Stochastics is returning from oversold.

A range bound approach to this market may now expect price to move higher and only end an upward swing when price finds resistance and Stochastics reaches overbought at the same time.

Bollinger Bands are tightly contracted. Volatility will return to this market. The longer Bollinger Bands remain contracted the more explosive the next movement may be.

This week’s classic technical analysis slightly supports the alternate Elliott wave count over the main Elliott wave count. The situation is still mostly unclear for Oil this week.

This analysis is published @ 01:47 a.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th January, 2017

Upwards movement was expected for Monday’s session.

The target on the hourly Elliott wave count is not yet met, so the analysis today will focus on whether or not this bounce is complete.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th January, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th January, 2017

Downwards movement ended 1.58 below the first target. A breach of the small channel on the hourly Elliott wave chart indicated a trend change, which was expected.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th January, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th January, 2017

Downwards movement continued exactly as expected for Gold. The Elliott wave count remains the same.

The hourly wave count will be watched carefully to manage short positions.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th January, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th January, 2017

Last analysis expected that a correction had begun for Silver. Price has moved lower for the week as expected, finding strong resistance so far at the upper trend line.

Summary: A deep correction may have begun now for Silver. The target is 16.26, but not below 15.638.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly chart is here.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Silver weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The upwards wave labelled primary wave W is seen here as a complete zigzag. It will also fit as an impulse and this is seen on the alternate weekly chart below.

If primary wave W is a zigzag, then within intermediate wave (A) the correction labelled minor wave 4 is a rare running flat. This reduces the probability of this wave count. For this reason the alternate below is published. It makes no difference to expected direction nor to the target.

The channel about primary wave X is providing resistance at this time. This wave count expects that upon the next test this channel should be breached.

ALTERNATE WEEKLY CHART

Silver weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Upwards movement labelled here as primary wave A will fit neatly as a five wave impulse. Within primary wave A, it is intermediate wave (5) that is extended.

The problem of a running flat is resolved. Although this is labelled as an alternate wave count, it may have a higher probability than the main wave count. But it makes no difference at this stage to either expected direction or the target calculation.

Primary wave B is a complete double zigzag.

Primary wave C is most likely to move at least slightly above the end of primary wave A to avoid a truncation. The most likely target for primary wave C would be equality in length with primary wave A.

DAILY CHART

Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Price may have found strong resistance at the upper edge of the gold best fit channel.

A five up may now be complete. This may be minor wave 1. Or the degree of labelling may be moved up one degree and it may be intermediate wave (1) or (A).

Following a five up the next three down may not move beyond its start below 15.638.

The most likely target for minor wave 2 would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 16.26.

Minor wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 days exactly. Minor wave 2 may be expected to last a Fibonacci 21 or 34 days; corrections are often more time consuming than the impulses they correct.

Minor wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. If it is a zigzag, then minute wave a would subdivide as an impulse.

Along the way down, corrections should continue to find strong resistance at the upper edge of the best fit gold channel.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Silver Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

For the first three weeks of upwards movement, after the low in December 2016, volume supported the rise in price. The last upwards week completed with a decline in volume and a long upper wick, both of which are bearish. This supports the Elliott wave count.

On Balance Volume is now at resistance. This may assist to halt the rise in price. This also supports the Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

Silver Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The last two days completed red candlesticks. Overall, price moved lower with an increase in volume. This offers small support for the Elliott wave count.

ADX is declining, indicating the market is not currently trending. The +DX line has just crossed below the -DX line indicating a potential trend change from up to down, but the black ADX line must show an increase for a new downwards trend to be indicated.

ATR continues overall to decline. Like Gold, this is normal for both a counter trend movement and the first wave within a new trend.

RSI did not reach overbought, but Stochastics did and exhibited some divergence with price while extreme. This is common prior to trend changes, but it cannot pinpoint exactly when price will turn.

Overall, this classic technical analysis well supports the current Elliott wave count.

This analysis is published @ 12:13 a.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th January, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th January, 2017

A breach of the trend channel and a new low below 1,195.82 invalidated the main Elliott wave count and confirmed the alternate.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th January, 2017

EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th January, 2017

Last analysis of this pair was in July 2016. That analysis expected lower movement, which did happen in the long term, but the high was not seen until a few weeks later in August.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

EURUSD Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The bigger picture expects the Euro to continue its overall downwards trajectory.

A large zigzag looks like it is unfolding downwards. If the triangle labelled cycle wave b is correct, then this downwards wave cannot be anything other than a zigzag. The triangle may not be labelled as a second wave correction within an impulse, because a second wave may not subdivide with a triangle as its sole corrective structure.

Cycle wave c must subdivide as a five wave structure. It looks like it is unfolding as an impulse.

Primary waves 1 and 2 are complete within the impulse. The target for primary wave 3 expects it to exhibit the most common Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1.

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as a simple impulse. The structure of primary waves 2 and 3 can be seen on the weekly chart below.

The maroon channel is drawn as a best fit, and it is important. Draw the first trend line from the end of cycle wave b to the highs within primary wave 3 (better shown on the weekly chart below). The upper edge of this channel is where price is finding strong resistance, with one overshoot for the price shock of the 9th November, 2016.

WEEKLY CHART

EURUSD Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 subdivides as a double zigzag. The second zigzag in the double deepened the correction achieving its purpose. However, this structure has mostly a sideways look.

Within intermediate wave (3), there is inadequate alternation in structure between the corrections of minor waves 2 and 4 because both subdivide as expanded flats. But there is alternation in duration and depth: minor wave 2 is deep at 0.75 and longer lasting at 20 weeks while minor wave 4 is shallow at 0.46 and more brief at 2 weeks. The alternation is within the middle: minor wave 2 has a time consuming B wave while minor wave 4 has a brief B wave. Minor wave 4 does not overlap minor wave 1 price territory. All rules are met.

Intermediate wave (4) may end if price again comes up to touch the upper maroon trend line. A mid line is added that is also proving useful for temporary support and resistance.

Intermediate wave (4) may end within the price territory of minor wave 4, one degree lower.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory above 1.10972.

The daily chart below shows all movement from the end of intermediate wave (2).

DAILY CHART

EURUSD Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (3) may be a complete impulse.

Minor wave A subdivides as a three within intermediate wave (4). Minor wave B is a quick zigzag and is a 1.04 length of minor wave A, indicating a regular flat.

The target for intermediate wave (4) to end may see it fall slightly short of the maroon trend line. The target expects minor wave C to exhibit an uncommon ratio between A and C waves within a regular flat. Regular flats are usually sideways structures and this one looks more like an expanded flat.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This pair has been sitting along the upper range of Bollinger Bands now for several days. This is common during its trends, so this does not indicate an end to upwards movement here. The length of time is a warning though that the upwards trend is nearing its end.

EURUSD tends to find resistance or support about the Fibonacci 13 day moving average during its trends. If a full daily candlestick prints below this line, then it would be an indication the upwards trend may be over.

At this stage, there is no divergence between price and RSI at highs nor between price and Stochastics at highs. There is room for upwards movement to continue. RSI is not overbought.

ADX today indicates an upwards trend in place: the ADX line is above 15 and rising, and the +DX line is above the -DX line. The trend is young; the ADX line is below both directional lines.

ATR is flat to declining as price moves higher in choppy overlapping movement. This upwards movement looks like a counter trend movement within a larger downwards trend.

Trading advice is given below for Elliott Wave Gold members only. Members must log in to see the next section.

Continue reading EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th January, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th January, 2017

A small downwards day remains above the invalidation point on the main hourly Elliott wave count.

So far price continues to find support at the lower edge of the channel.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th January, 2017

USDCAD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th January, 2017 – MotiveWave Video

This video is not my usual analysis video. This video shows the entire process of how I do Elliott wave + classic technical analysis on a new market, using the MotiveWave trading platform on a MacBook.

For Elliott Wave geeks only 🙂