Monthly Archives: March 2017

Trading Room – 31st March, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at Copper and Natural Gas.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

Copper (Spot)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The last trade for Copper was closed on the 27th of March.

Now Copper has moved higher.

The long lower wick of the 27th of March is bullish. Now the long upper wick of the 30th of March is bearish. A reasonable expectation would be for Copper to print at least one red daily candlestick next.

Strong volume for a session with the balance of volume downwards supports downwards movement.

On Balance Volume may find some support at the yellow trend line, but this line does not have much technical significance as it is steep and only tested twice before. The purple line does offer reasonable significance, so this may halt a fall in price.

Copper is range bound with resistance about 2.700 and support about 2.560. During this range bound period, it is two downwards days that have strongest volume suggesting a downwards breakout is more likely than upwards.

TREND LINE

Copper Chart Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Copper has found very strong resistance at the green trend line, which goes back to at least August 2011. The doji candlestick for February puts the trend from up to neutral.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The upper edge of the blue channel has provided resistance, with a strong overshoot for the 30th of March. Copper may be ready to move lower in a third wave at two degrees and this should see an increase in downwards momentum.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

Natural Gas

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Natural Gas Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Natural Gas is now in an upwards trend. The breach of the blue bear Magee trend line indicated a trend change from bear to bull.

Now a new trend line is drawn for the new bull trend in green, so expect corrections to find support at this line. If it is breached, it would indicate a change.

Next resistance is about 3.550.

There is strong volume for upwards movement in recent sessions. The new trend has support from volume.

On Balance Volume is constrained within sloping lines. A breakout would be a bullish or bearish signal.

Stochastics can remain extreme for reasonable periods of time. With price sitting close to upper edge of Bollinger Bands and Stochastics exhibiting divergence with price at highs while extreme, it looks like in the short term a small pullback may unfold.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

Natural Gas Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The last Elliott wave count was invalidated with a new high this week above 3.174. Cycle wave b may be continuing higher as a double zigzag.

Natural Gas Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The downwards wave labeled primary wave X is now a complete structure. It fits best and looks most like a three wave movement.

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) below 2.522.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

TRADING ROOM SUMMARY TABLES

OPEN POSITIONS

Trading Room Open Positions 2017
Click table to enlarge.

Trading advice for gold given to Elliott Wave Gold members will be included in Trading Room summary tables. However, so that it remains private for Elliott Wave Gold members only, it will not be included in Trading Room posts.

CLOSED POSITIONS

Trading Room Closed Positions March 2017
Click table to enlarge.

Trades advised to Elliott Wave Gold members for Gold have now been included in Trading Room summary tables.

*FTSE was a weak recommendation. Advice was given to only invest 1-2% of equity on this trade.

RECOMMENDATIONS

[Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

 

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

This analysis is published @ 02:53 a.m. EST.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th March, 2017

Last week expected a pullback to begin for Silver either at the high for the 23rd of March, or very soon. This is not what has happened. Price has continued to move higher.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th March, 2017

Downwards movement continued for Thursday as expected. Price is now below the lower edge of the base channel on the hourly chart.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th March, 2017

Another downwards day for Wednesday overall was expected. The main Elliott wave count remains the same and is still preferred over the alternate.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th March, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th March, 2017

Price is now moving sideways again. Some strategies for traders are outlined today.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th March, 2017

Downwards movement unfolded for Tuesday’s session as expected. On Balance Volume and the 200 day moving average were enough to turn price down. A new low below 1,252.75 added a little confidence to the expectation.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th March, 2017

Downwards movement was expected to start the new trading week, but this is not what happened.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th March, 2017

Trading Room – 27th March, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at Copper, US Oil and FTSE.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

Copper (Spot)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Copper has made a series of lower lows and lower highs (the definition of downwards movement) since the 13th of February. This downwards movement is choppy and overlapping though.

The very short term suggests volume may provide support for a little more upwards movement. If the trend is down, then price should not make a new high above 2.700.

Long lower wicks on the last three daily candlesticks also looks bullish for the short term.

On Balance Volume gives a bearish signal on the 23rd of March, which should be given reasonable weight.

With low ADX and ATR, there is plenty of room for a new trend to develop.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The lower edge of the gold channel did provide support; price bounced up from there. The upper edge should provide resistance.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

US Oil (WTI Crude – Spot)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

US Oil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The trend is not yet extreme. There is room still for it to continue. When Oil trends strongly, ADX can remain above 35 and above both directional lines for several days before the trend ends.

There is some concern today that the next movement down is not yet underway. The correction which price moved into on the 15th of March may still be underway. Slight divergence at the last low between Stochastics and price, and RSI and price, looks slightly bullish. The long lower wick on the candlestick for the 22nd of March looks bullish.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

US Oil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

If the Elliott wave count is correct, then the correction should be over. If it were to continue, then it would be grossly disproportionate to subminuette wave ii.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

FTSE

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

FTSE Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise. The trend is up at this stage, so corrections present an opportunity to join the trend.

FTSE Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

While the longer term trend looks clear, the shorter term trend is not so clear. This can often be the case at the end of corrections within a larger trend.

Divergence with price and RSI, and Stochastics, indicates weakness at highs. This indicates caution for long positions. There is a level of risk here that is not small.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

FTSE Chart Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The normal range for cycle wave b is from 1 to 1.38 the length of cycle wave a. The structure of cycle wave b is close to completion. If cycle wave b reaches twice the length of cycle wave a, the wave count should be discarded based upon an extremely low probability. That point is above 10,624.

FTSE Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The weekly chart shows all of intermediate waves (A)-(B)-(C). The structure is an incomplete zigzag. The daily chart below shows all of minor wave 5 within intermediate wave (C).

FTSE Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 5 is unfolding as an impulse and its structure is incomplete. Within minor wave 5, minute wave v may be extending. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii, so it is more likely that minute wave v will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

Within the middle of the third wave, micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1 below 7,263.62. However, the probability of this wave count would substantially reduce if the green channel is breached before this price point is passed.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

TRADING ROOM SUMMARY TABLES

OPEN POSITIONS

Trading Room Open Positions 2017
Click table to enlarge.

CLOSED POSITIONS

Trading Room Closed Positions March 2017
Click table to enlarge.

RECOMMENDATIONS

[Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

 

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

This analysis is published @ 01:25 a.m. EST.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th March, 2017

Downwards movement for a pullback was expected for Friday’s session. A lower low and a lower high is the definition of downwards movement, and this is what was seen for Friday.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th March, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd March, 2017

Last week expected a pullback to begin for Silver. Price has edged up slowly all week.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd March, 2017

A slight new high was not expected but was allowed for. Thereafter, price has turned downwards to breach the channel on the hourly chart.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd March, 2017

The target was at 1,253. So far price has reached 1,251.21, just 1.79 short of the target.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd March, 2017