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Price has moved overall higher as expected from the main hourly Elliott wave count in last analysis.

Summary: A little confidence may be had in a trend change, but weak volume and a long upper wick on Monday’s candlestick is concerning. It is possible we may see another low and the second hourly chart illustrates this risk. Long positions absolutely must have a stop. Realistically, it should be just below the last low at 1,194.50. The target in the first instance is 1,452.

Members may like to consider a short position to hedge long positions, at least partially. Short hedges should have stops just above 1,211.06 and a target may be at 1,168.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here and the last video on weekly wave counts is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) so far looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. The structure may now be complete (first hourly chart below) or it may require a final low (second hourly chart below).

If intermediate wave (2) is over at Friday’s low, then it would have lasted 22 sessions; this may be considered close enough to a Fibonacci 21 to exhibit a Fibonacci duration.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.

At this stage, there are multiple ways to see the subdivisions of minor wave C downwards at the hourly chart level. Below are just two possibilities.

If this wave count is correct, then at its end minor wave C will provide a very good opportunity to join the longer term upwards trend.

FIRST HOURLY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

To see the entire structure of minor wave C downwards, from the high on the 27th of February, see hourly charts published in last analysis here.

Price has broken out strongly above the Elliott channel and this offers some confidence that a low may be in place.

Upwards movement will fit well as a five wave structure. So far downwards movement looks strongly like a three wave structure. If this portion of the analysis is correct, then Gold has completed a five up and a three down and this adds a little more confidence to the idea of a trend change.

Minute wave ii may have ended close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i, a most common point for early second wave corrections. Within minute wave ii, minuette wave (c) is 0.40 longer than 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

It looks like minute wave ii has curved down to test support at the upper edge of the channel. This looks like typical price behaviour.

If it continues any lower, minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,195.22.

SECOND HOURLY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Minute wave iv may have completed as a shallow zigzag. Fourth waves are not always contained neatly within channels, and that is why Elliott developed a second technique to redraw the channel when the fourth wave breaches it. This channel is redrawn with the first trend line from the ends of minute waves ii to iv, then a parallel copy on the end of minute wave iii. Minute wave v may end midway within the channel if the target is met.

It is also possible that the target is too high. The next reasonable target may be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) at 1,168.

With minute wave iv moving higher, the target for minute wave v is recalculated for this second hourly chart.

If minute wave iv continues as a double zigzag, then it may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,251.17.

This wave count remains possible. This illustrates the risk now to long positions.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Last week completes a red candlestick that closed with lighter volume than the week prior. This offers small support for the Elliott wave count that sees downwards movement over here or very soon. However, price can continue to fall for a few more weeks of its own weight.

On Balance Volume has some distance to go to find support or resistance. It is not very useful at this time on the weekly time frame.

ADX indicates no clear trend.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Prior downwards days showed an increase in volume to the last low. The fall in price was supported by volume. Now Monday has moved price higher with a higher high and a higher low, but the candlestick has closed red and the balance of volume for the session is upwards.

Upwards movement during Monday’s session does not have support from volume. This is concerning for the first hourly chart but supports the second hourly chart.

The long upper wick on Monday’s candlestick is bearish. This is concerning for the first hourly chart.

GDX

DAILY CHART

GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Monday’s session moved price higher and the balance of volume is upwards. Volume is much lighter than Friday though and upwards movement for Monday does not have support from volume.

Apart from lighter volume the rest of this chart is mainly bullish.

This analysis is published @ 09:50 p.m. EST.