S&P 500

Price moved lower for Friday exactly as the main short term Elliott wave count expected.

The week closes with a Shooting Star candlestick pattern.

Summary: Shooting Star candlesticks indicate this pullback is not complete. The Elliott wave count expects it to end below 2,796.34 but not below 2,791.47.

The bigger picture remains extremely bullish.

The mid to longer term target is at 2,922 (Elliott wave) or 3,045 (classic analysis). Another multi week to multi month correction is expected at one of these targets.

The final target for this bull market to end remains at 3,616.

Always practice good risk management. Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts is here, video is here.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave V must complete as a five structure, which should look clear at the weekly chart level and also now at the monthly chart level. It may only be an impulse or ending diagonal. At this stage, it is clear it is an impulse.

Within cycle wave V, the third waves at all degrees may only subdivide as impulses.

Intermediate wave (4) has breached an Elliott channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique. The channel is redrawn using Elliott’s second technique: the first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (2) to (4), then a parallel copy on the end of intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (5) may end either midway within the channel, or about the upper edge.

Intermediate wave (4) may now be a complete regular contracting triangle lasting fourteen weeks, one longer than a Fibonacci thirteen. There is perfect alternation and excellent proportion between intermediate waves (2) and (4).

Within intermediate wave (5), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 2,594.62. However, the lower edge of the black Elliott channel drawn across the ends of intermediate degree waves should provide very strong support for any deeper pullbacks, holding price well above the invalidation point while intermediate wave (5) unfolds.

At this stage, the expectation is for the final target to me met in October 2019.

A multi week to multi month consolidation for primary wave 4 is expected on the way up to the final target.

The last bullish fifth wave of minor wave 5 to end intermediate wave (3) exhibited commodity like behaviour. It was strong and sustained. It is possible that the upcoming wave of minor wave 5 to end intermediate wave (5) to end primary wave 3 may exhibit similar behaviour, so we should be on the lookout for this possibility.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (5) would be very likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of intermediate wave (3) at 2,872.87 to avoid a truncation.

Intermediate wave (3) exhibits no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (1). It is more likely then that intermediate wave (5) may exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of intermediate waves (1) or (3). The most common Fibonacci ratio would be equality in length with intermediate wave (1), but in this instance that would expect a truncation. The next common Fibonacci ratio is used to calculate a target for intermediate wave (5) to end.

Intermediate wave (5) is unfolding as an impulse, and within it minor waves 1 and 2 are complete.

Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. A target is calculated for minor wave 3 to end, which expects to see the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1. Minor wave 3 may last several weeks in total and should look like an impulse at the daily chart level. When it is complete, then minor wave 4 may last about one to two weeks in order for it to exhibit reasonable proportion to minor wave 2. Minor wave 4 must remain above minor wave 1 price territory above 2,742.10.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i, ii and iii all look complete and minute wave iv may still be an incomplete expanded flat correction. If minute wave iv were to continue further, then it would have better proportion to minute wave ii and would exhibit alternation in structure. This idea also has support at the end of this week from classic technical analysis.

It is also possible that minute wave iv was over at the last low and minor wave 3 was over at the last high. A new low below 2,791.47 could not be a continuation of minute wave iv, so the correction at that stage would be labelled minor wave 4.

The channel is drawn using Elliott’s first technique. The upper edge has provided resistance.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Another new high for On Balance Volume last week remains very bullish indeed, but that does not preclude another small pullback within this developing upwards trend. It is still expected that price is very likely to make new all time highs, but it will not move in a straight line.

This week’s candlestick is a Shooting Star pattern. This is a bearish reversal pattern when it comes after an upwards trend. Look for a downwards week next week.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The symmetrical triangle may now be complete. The base distance is 340.18. Added to the breakout point of 2,704.54 this gives a target at 3,044.72. This is above the Elliott wave target at 2,922, so the Elliott wave target may be inadequate.

Since the low on the 2nd of April, 2018, price has made a series of higher highs and higher lows. This is the definition of an upwards trend. But trends do not move in perfectly straight lines; there are pullbacks and bounces along the way.

There are now two Shooting Star candlesticks at or about the last high. This is now a stronger bearish warning. There are three recent examples of Shooting Stars on this chart: on 31st of July, 26th of July, and 11th of June. The second two examples came after an upwards trend and were considered bearish reversal candlesticks. Both were closely accompanied by new all time highs from On Balance Volume and some bearish divergence with price and Stochastics. Both were quickly followed by reasonable pullbacks. This is almost exactly the same situation now, and it now looks like it is happening again here. It is for this reason primarily that the main Elliott wave count expects to see a reasonable pullback continue next week.

The bigger picture remains extremely bullish with another new all time high from On Balance Volume as recently as the 7th of August.

There is strong support for price about 2,800, and support for On Balance Volume is close by. These two supports together may prevent a pullback here from being very deep.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

To keep an eye on the all time high for inverted VIX a weekly chart is required at this time.

Notice how inverted VIX has very strong bearish signals four weeks in a row just before the start of the last large fall in price. At the weekly chart level, this indicator may be useful again in warning of the end of primary wave 3.

This week completes an upwards week with a higher high and a higher low.

While price moved higher, inverted VIX moved lower. Downwards movement during this week does not have support from increasing market volatility. This divergence is bearish.

Inverted VIX is still some way off from making a new all time high.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.

Last noted mid term bearish divergence has not been followed yet by more downwards movement. It may still indicate downwards movement ahead as there is now a cluster of bearish signals from inverted VIX.

Both price and inverted VIX moved lower on Friday, but inverted VIX has moved more strongly lower than price. While there is no clear divergence at lows, this is reasonably bearish for the short term.

BREADTH – AD LINE

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

When primary wave 3 comes to an end, it may be valuable to watch the AD line at the weekly time frame as well as the daily.

At this stage, there is very strong bullish divergence between price and the AD line at the weekly time frame. With the AD line making new all time highs, expect price to follow through with new all time highs in coming weeks.

Price this week has moved higher, but the AD line has moved lower.

Upwards movement within this last week does not have support from rising market breadth. This divergence is bearish for the short term.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is normally 4-6 months divergence between price and market breadth prior to a full fledged bear market. This has been so for all major bear markets within the last 90 odd years. With no longer term divergence yet at this point, any decline in price should be expected to be a pullback within an ongoing bull market and not necessarily the start of a bear market. New all time highs from the AD line means that any bear market may now be an absolute minimum of 4 months away. It may of course be a lot longer than that. My next expectation for the end of this bull market may now be October 2019.

Breadth should be read as a leading indicator.

At the end of the week, both price and the AD line have moved lower. There is no divergence. Downwards movement for Friday had support from declining market breadth, which is bearish.

Small caps and mid caps have both made new all time highs. Only large caps have to follow through; they do usually lag in the latter stages of a bull market.

Mid caps have a Gravestone doji at the high and a Shooting Star reversal pattern just below the high. This looks bearish for the short term.

Small caps have another slight new high, but now there are is also a Gravestone doji and a Shooting Star about this high. This looks bearish for the short term.

DOW THEORY

The following lows need to be exceeded for Dow Theory to confirm the end of the bull market and a change to a bear market:

DJIA: 23,360.29.

DJT: 9,806.79.

S&P500: 2,532.69.

Nasdaq: 6,630.67.

Only Nasdaq at this stage is making new all time highs, with another new all time high on the 25th of July. DJIA and DJT need to make new all time highs for the ongoing bull market to be confirmed.

GOLD

The short term Elliott wave structure and strong volume for Friday indicate the direction for next week.

Summary: With support from volume, GDX has effected a downwards breakout from a very long held consolidation (beginning December 2016). The target is at 16.10.

The target is at 1,185 if Gold makes a new low below 1,204.69, which now looks most likely. If Gold does make a new low, then about the target a strong bounce for a multi week upwards wave is expected.

Always trade with stops to protect your account. Risk only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts and several weekly alternates is here, video is here.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART – TRIANGLE

Click chart to enlarge.

There are four remaining weekly wave counts at this time for cycle wave b: a triangle, flat, combination or double zigzag. All four weekly charts will again be reviewed at the end of this week.

While the direction does not diverge for these four weekly wave counts, only one weekly wave count shall be published on a daily basis, so that the analysis is manageable for me to publish and for members to digest. Note: This does not mean that the remaining three counts may not be correct.

The triangle so far has the best fit and look.

Cycle wave b may be an incomplete triangle. The triangle may be a contracting or barrier triangle, with a contracting triangle looking much more likely because the A-C trend line does not have a strong slope. A contracting triangle could see the B-D trend line have a stronger slope, so that the triangle trend lines converge at a reasonable rate. A barrier triangle would have a B-D trend line that would be essentially flat, and the triangle trend lines would barely converge.

Within a contracting triangle, primary wave D may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Within a barrier triangle, primary wave D may end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line is essentially flat. Only a new low reasonably below 1,123.08 would invalidate the triangle.

Within both a contracting and barrier triangle, primary wave E may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,365.68.

Four of the five sub-waves of a triangle must be zigzags, with only one sub-wave allowed to be a multiple zigzag. Primary wave C is the most common sub-wave to subdivide as a multiple, and this is how primary wave C for this example fits best.

Primary wave D must be a single structure, most likely a zigzag.

There are no problems in terms of subdivisions or rare structures for this wave count. It has an excellent fit and so far a typical look.

DAILY CHART – TRIANGLE

Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave D now looks most likely to be incomplete, requiring a final short fifth wave downwards for minor wave 5.

Minor wave 5 may find support at the lower edge of the blue Elliott channel. After a new low, if price turns up and breaks above the upper edge of this channel, then that shall be a very strong indication that the downwards wave of intermediate wave (C) should be over and a new upwards wave should have begun.

Gold often exhibits surprisingly short fifth waves out of its fourth wave triangles; if the target calculated is wrong, it may be too low.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 1,282.20.

WEEKLY CHART – FLAT

Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that cycle wave b may be a flat correction. Within a flat correction, primary wave B must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of primary wave A at 1,079.13 or below. Primary wave B may make a new low below the start of primary wave A at 1,046.27 as in an expanded flat correction.

Only a new low reasonably below 1,123.08 would provide reasonable confidence in this wave count.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure; it may be unfolding as an impulse. Within intermediate wave (C), only minor waves 1 and 2 may be complete. Minor wave 3 may be an incomplete impulse, and within it minute wave iv may have just ended as a small triangle. But if minute wave iv continues further, it may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,282.20.

When minor wave 3 is complete, then this wave count shall expect a multi week bounce or sideways consolidation for minor wave 4. At that stage, the invalidation point must move up to the end of minor wave 1 at 1,307.09.

Minor wave 2 was a double zigzag lasting nine weeks. To exhibit alternation and reasonable proportion minor wave 4 may be a flat, combination or triangle and may last a little longer than nine weeks as these types of corrections tend to be longer lasting than zigzags or zigzag multiples.

WEEKLY CHART – COMBINATION

Click chart to enlarge.

It is essential when a triangle is considered to always consider alternates. Too many times over the years I have labelled a triangle as unfolding or even complete, only for it to be invalidated and the structure turning out to be something else.

When a triangle is invalidated, then the most common structure the correction turns out to be is a combination.

If cycle wave b is a combination, then the first structure in a double may be a complete zigzag labelled primary wave W.

The double may be joined by a three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled primary wave X.

The second structure in the double may be a flat correction labelled primary wave Y. It may also be a triangle, but that would expect essentially the same movement as the weekly triangle chart and so shall not yet be considered while there is no divergence in the expected pathway for price.

Within a flat correction for primary wave Y, the current downwards wave of intermediate wave (B) may be a single or multiple zigzag; for now it shall be labelled as a single. Intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 1,147.34. Intermediate wave (B) may move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) as in an expanded flat.

Within the zigzag of intermediate wave (B), minor waves A and B may be complete. Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure; at this stage, it may be an incomplete impulse. Within minor wave C, minute waves i and ii and now iii may be complete. It is also possible at the end of this week that minute wave iv may be a small complete triangle. If it continues further, then minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,282.50.

When intermediate wave (B) is complete, then intermediate wave (C) would be expected to make at least a slight new high above the end of intermediate wave (A) at 1,365.68 to avoid a truncation. Primary wave Y would be most likely to end about the same level as primary wave W at 1,374.91, so that the whole structure takes up time and moves price sideways, as that is the purpose of double combinations.

While double combinations are very common, triples are extremely rare. When the second structure in a double is complete, then it is extremely likely that the whole correction is over.

This is the most immediately bearish wave count.

WEEKLY CHART – DOUBLE ZIGZAG

Click chart to enlarge.

Finally, it is also possible that cycle wave b may be a double zigzag or a double combination.

The first zigzag in the double is labelled primary wave W. This has a good fit.

The double may be joined by a corrective structure in the opposite direction, a triangle labelled primary wave X. The triangle would be about two thirds complete.

Within the triangle of primary wave X, intermediate wave (C) may now be almost complete. It may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A) below 1,123.08.

This wave count may now expect choppy overlapping movement in an ever decreasing range for several more months. After the triangle is complete, then an upwards breakout would be expected from it.

Primary wave Y would most likely be a zigzag because primary wave X would be shallow; double zigzags normally have relatively shallow X waves.

Primary wave Y may also be a flat correction if cycle wave b is a double combination, but combinations normally have deep X waves. This would be less likely.

This wave count has good proportions and no problems in terms of subdivisions.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The long term picture for this chart is bearish due to the long term bearish divergence between price and On Balance Volume.

Short term bullishness may have now been resolved by some sideways movement.

For this market, when a strong trend is unfolding, ADX may reach very extreme and may continue as such for several weeks.

Low and declining ATR looks normal for a B wave, particularly a triangle.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A pennant pattern may have formed, which has now lasted 16 days. The best flags and pennants last less than 15 days, so this one is now a bit long lasting. The breakout should be downwards as pennants are continuation patterns.

Price moved lower and the balance of volume was downwards during Friday’s session. Also, volume supported downwards movement, which is now the strongest volume within the pennant pattern, and this supports the idea of a downwards breakout.

Support below is about 1,195 and then 1,125.

GDX WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

GDX has been range bounce since January 2017. This is a very long sideways consolidation. The longer it continues, the more sustained the eventual breakout will be. Volume suggests the breakout may more likely be downwards.

Price this week closed below support, which was about 20.80. The close this week is the lowest price point for about a year and a half, which is extremely significant. A very long term downwards trend now looks very likely for GDX.

Next support is about 18.40.

GDX DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

GDX has now closed below support on a strong downwards day with support from volume. The low yesterday is the lowest low for GDX since December 2016, so this downwards day is extremely significant for GDX.

GDX is in a downwards trend. The short term picture now looks bearish.

Please remember to protect your trading accounts by careful risk management. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always trade with stops.

2. Risk only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

A possible target for this downwards trend to end may be now calculated using the measured rule, giving a target about 16.10.

While GDX and Gold are often positively correlated, this correlation is unreliable. Gold may still have a multi week shallow bounce and GDX may still move overall lower with smaller bounces along the way. The two wave counts, and indeed technical analysis for these two markets, cannot be reliably linked while the correlation is unreliable.

US OIL

Overall, a downwards swing was expected, with a small bounce to about 61.22 expected first. The bounce did not happen. Downwards movement has continued.

Summary: A deeper and longer lasting consolidation looks to be underway, which may last about 13 to 21 weeks in total. It should remain above 55.24, and the target is about 61.12. The consolidation will not move in a straight line; it may swing from resistance to support and back again in large swings. Support may now be about 63.0 and resistance may be about 75.25.

At this time, a downwards swing to support looks likely to be underway. The target for the consolidation to end is 61.12 to 61.22. (Do not expect the swing to move in a straight line, because that is not how price normally behaves within consolidations.)

Always practice good risk management as the most important aspect of trading. Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade. Failure to manage risk is the most common mistake new traders make.

MAIN WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

The bear market for US Oil looks to be over and a new bull market looks to be in its very early stages. The prior bearish wave count has been invalidated, leaving only this very bullish wave count.

A huge zigzag down to the last low may be complete and is labelled here Super Cycle wave (II).

Cycle wave b must be seen as complete in August 2013 for this wave count to work. It cannot be seen as complete at the prior major swing high in May 2011.

Cycle wave b is seen as a zigzag, and within it primary wave B is seen as a running contracting triangle. These are fairly common structures, although nine wave triangles are uncommon. All subdivisions fit.

Primary wave C moves beyond the end of primary wave A, so it avoids a truncation. But it does not have to move above the price territory of primary wave B to avoid a truncation, which is an important distinction.

If cycle wave b begins there, then cycle wave c may be seen as a complete five wave impulse.

Super Cycle wave (III) must move beyond the end of Super Cycle wave (I). It must move far enough above that point to allow room for a subsequent Super Cycle wave (IV) to unfold and remain above Super Cycle wave (I) price territory.

Cycle wave I may be incomplete. It may be unfolding as an impulse and may have now moved through the middle portion. Commodities have a tendency to exhibit swift strong fifth waves, and this tendency is especially prevalent for third wave impulses. Intermediate wave (5) to end primary wave 3 may be very swift and strong, ending with a blow off top.

When cycle wave I is complete, then cycle wave II may be a deep correction that may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I below 26.06.

Data from FXCM for USOil does not go back to the beginning of Super Cycle wave (I). Without an accurate known length of Super Cycle wave (I) a target cannot be calculated for Super Cycle wave (III) to end using Fibonacci ratios. The target for Super Cycle wave (III) may be calculated when cycle waves I, II, III and IV within it are complete. That cannot be done for many years.

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (3) may now be complete. There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (1) and (3), and intermediate wave (3) is longer than 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

This wave count fits with classic technical analysis at the monthly and daily chart levels.

Intermediate wave (2) was a deep double zigzag. Given the guideline of alternation, intermediate wave (4) may be expected to most likely be a shallow flat, triangle or combination. It may be about even in duration with intermediate wave (2), or it may be a little longer because triangles and combinations are more time consuming structures.

In the first instance, a Fibonacci 13 weeks may be expected for intermediate wave (4). If about that time the structure is incomplete, then the next Fibonacci number in the sequence at 21 will be expected. At this stage, it has lasted only 11 weeks.

Intermediate wave (4) may find support about the lower edge of the black Elliott channel. It may end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree; minor wave 4 has its territory from 66.65 to 59.13.

At this stage, there are still multiple structural options for intermediate wave (4) to complete as. They will be separated out into separate charts.

FLAT

Click chart to enlarge.

Of all the daily charts, this first chart at this stage has the best look and may have the highest probability.

Intermediate wave (4) may be unfolding as a flat correction. Within the flat correction, minor wave A may be a complete zigzag and minor wave B may be a complete expanded flat correction, a 1.27 length of minor wave A, which is within the most common range of from 1 to 1.38. An expanded flat is indicated.

Expanded flats normally see C waves move substantially beyond the end of their A waves. A target for minor wave C is calculated, which expects it to exhibit a common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A. This target is very close to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (3).

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure, and within it minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 75.26.

Minute wave ii looks complete as a shallow double zigzag. Minute wave iii may now be underway; it may only subdivide as an impulse, and it is likely to look like a five wave structure on the daily chart.

Minor wave C may complete within two more weeks, which would see intermediate wave (4) complete in a total Fibonacci 13 weeks.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 55.24.

FLAT – ALTERNATE

Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate idea is identical to the first flat wave count with the exception of the degree of labelling. Here, the degree of labelling within intermediate wave (4) is moved down one degree. Minor wave A may be an incomplete flat correction.

The target and expected direction is the same. The upper invalidation point is the same for the short to mid term.

This wave count allows for intermediate wave (4) to be longer lasting. At this stage, it is looking less likely than the first wave count.

COMBINATION

Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (4) may be unfolding as a double combination.

The first structure in the double may be a completed zigzag labelled minor wave W. The double may be joined by a three in the opposite direction, an expanded flat labelled minor wave X.

The second structure in the double may be either a flat or a triangle, with a flat correction much more likely, so that is what will be expected.

Within the flat correction of minor wave Y, minute wave a must subdivide as a three. Minute wave a may be subdividing as a zigzag, and within it minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) above 75.26.

Within the flat correction of minor wave Y, when minute wave a is a completed three wave structure, then minute wave b must unfold upwards and must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of minute wave a. Minute wave b at that stage may make a new high above the start of minute wave a at 75.26.

Minor wave Y would most likely end about the same level as minor wave W at 64.22, so that the whole structure takes up time and moves price sideways.

COMBINATION – ALTERNATE

Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate idea for the combination again moves the degree of labelling within intermediate wave (4) all down one degree.

The first structure in a double combination may be an incomplete flat correction labelled minor wave W.

When minor wave W is complete, then minor wave X should unfold as a three wave structure upwards, most likely a zigzag. Minor wave X has no minimum requirement nor no maximum allowable length.

Thereafter, minor wave Y would most likely be a zigzag and would most likely end about the same level as minor wave W, so that the whole structure takes up time and moves price sideways.

A double combination with this degree of labelling could take several more weeks to unfold. At this stage, this looks to be too time consuming considering the proportion between intermediate waves (2) and (4) on the weekly chart.

TRIANGLE

Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (4) may be unfolding as a triangle.

Within the triangle, minor wave A should be seen as over at the last low. This is problematic because it does not fit as a single zigzag. It can be seen complete as a double zigzag, but this looks forced because minute wave w does not look like a very clear three.

If minor wave A is a double zigzag, then all remaining triangle sub-waves must subdivide as single structures. All but one of them must be zigzags and one triangle sub-wave may be another type of corrective structure.

Within the triangle, minor wave C may be unfolding as a zigzag; within it, minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a above 75.26.

Minute wave b may be complete. Minute wave c may now be unfolding lower as an ending expanding diagonal.

Minor wave C may not move beyond the end of minor wave A below 63.60.

A triangle may take several more weeks to complete. They are often very time consuming structures.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The short term volume profile is bearish: the strongest month in the last few months was the downwards month of May (where the balance of volume was down) and now June shows a decline in volume, so volume has not supported upwards movement here.

July saw another red monthly candlestick with the balance of volume downwards, but the market fell of its own weight; it was not supported by volume. This is not necessarily bullish, but it does point to a consolidation as somewhat more likely here.

For the short term, On Balance Volume is also slightly bearish. This supports the idea that price may be within a correction and not necessarily a continuation of the larger upwards trend.

However, it is entirely possible that this situation could reverse and volume could start to support upwards movement, as has happened back in January 2018.

The larger trend is upwards.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

ADX now indicates no clear trend; the market may be consolidating.

Expect swings from support to resistance and back again, using Stochastics to indicate when each swing may end.

Price is moving lower. Stochastics is again approaching oversold. Look for more downwards movement until price reaches support and Stochastics reaches fully oversold, along with (possibly) exhibiting some bullish divergence.

On Balance Volume has very recently made new all time highs on the daily chart. This is extremely bullish for the bigger picture and offers support to the wave count at the monthly chart level.