An upwards day was again expected as most likely, but this is not what happened. Price remains above the invalidation point on the main hourly chart, and has quickly returned to within the blue channel.
For those who want to hone their Elliott wave knowledge, have a go at spotting my deliberate mistakes:
This one is easy (at least, I think it is and I’ve really tried to make it easy).
There is one mistake in the triangle (just one!) and one mistake in the impulse.
Can you find them both?
Name the rules which I have deliberately broken here. Answers will be posted in comments tomorrow or the day after.
Note: During the process of preparing this post, I found a solution that fixes my main problem with the current alternate wave count. This solution will be published in tomorrow’s Gold analysis.
Published @ 05:49 a.m. EST.
An upwards day was expected, but this is not what happened.
Two hourly Elliott wave counts are used today.
Volume analysis is essential to a full technical analysis. One of the simplest techniques is to look at volume during a consolidation and note which days, upwards or downwards, have strongest volume.
Gold has been within a large consolidation since about January 2017. A small resistance zone is about 1,295 to 1,300. A wide support zone is about 1,195 to 1,215. During this period of time, it is two upwards days that have strongest volume and this suggests that an upwards breakout may be more likely than a downwards breakout.
This technique does not always work, but it works more often than it fails. This technique is an exercise in probability and not certainty.
Published @ 04:00 a.m. EST.
Upwards movement continues as expected. A downwards whipsaw breached the invalidation point on the hourly chart, which was too close.
Overall, more upwards movement was expected; a slight new high fits the main Elliott wave count.
Downwards movement during Monday’s session remained above the short term invalidation point on the hourly chart.
Upwards movement was unexpected for Friday.
The target for more upwards movement was 1,277, but it has not been met yet. Price did make a slight new high.
A pullback was expected when price made a new low below 1,244.28, but it was expected to be a little deeper though: price fell $6 short of the first target at 1,238.
The overall trend remains up, which still fits the Elliott wave count.
US Fed interest rate decision is due out at 2 p.m. EST on 26th of July, and this may move the Gold market strongly two hours before New York closes.
Simple support and resistance may be used to tell in which direction Gold may move and where it may stop.
There is formidable resistance about 1,260. This was tested two sessions ago and has held. Now price has moved down and away with support from volume. This may hold if markets experience a price shock upon the release of the Fed decision. If that is the case, then Gold may whipsaw lower.
Next two areas of strong support are about 1,240 and 1,235. This may be about where Gold could end up for the short term.
This analysis is published @ 06:55 a.m. EST.
A small correction was expected to move sideways and end within 24 hours. Downwards movement still fits the Elliott wave count (although deeper than expected) and price remains above the invalidation point on the hourly chart.
A short term target at 1,264 has not been met; price has fallen $5.41 short. However, price did make a new high at the start of Monday’s session and overall upwards movement continues as expected.
Upwards movement continues as expected towards the target. A short term target is now provided.