Category Archives: Equities

All individual equity markets

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th July, 2016

Last analysis expected overall upwards movement while price remained within a channel, towards a mid term target.

Price has moved higher and remains within the channel. The target remains the same.

Summary: A third wave up to 36.21 continues. Downwards corrections should find support now at the lower edge of the black channel on the daily chart. If price breaks below the lower edge of the channel, the wave count would be in doubt. The invalidation point may now be moved up to 24.80.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The whole wave down for cycle wave a subdivides well as a five wave impulse. However, GDX does not have adequate volume to produce typical looking Elliott wave structures. As always, this wave count comes with the strong caveat that this market is not sufficient in volume for a reliable Elliott wave analysis. It is a rough guide only. The direction expected from the Elliott wave count should be fairly reliable, but targets and invalidation points may not be.

Ratios within cycle wave a are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves 1 and 3, and primary wave 5 is 0.33 short of 0.236 the length of primary wave 3.

Ratios within primary wave 3 are: intermediate wave (3) is 3.48 short of 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate waves (3) or (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.02 longer than equality in length with minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is 0.38 longer than equality in length with minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

Within primary wave 5, there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between intermediate waves (1), (3) and (5).

The black channel is a best fit; this movement does not fit into an Elliott channel. The channel is breached very clearly and price has made a major new swing high above 17.04. A trend change was confirmed in February.

If analysis of downwards movement is correct that cycle wave a has subdivided as a five wave structure, then this tells us two things:

1. The bear market for GDX must be incomplete because a five may not be a corrective structure, so this must only be wave A.

2. Cycle wave b may not make a new high above the start of cycle wave a at 66.98.

Cycle wave b may be any one of 23 possible corrective structures. It may be a swift sharp zigzag, or it may be a sideways structure such as a flat, combination or triangle. It should last one to several years.

The first movement up for cycle wave b must be a clear five wave structure for a trend of this magnitude. It looks like this completed at the Magee trend line where price found resistance and rebounded down. This line is now breached, providing further strong confidence that GDX is in a bull market for a longer term.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave A may be subdividing as a three or a five. If it is a five, it looks like an unfolding impulse. If it is a three, so far it looks like an unfolding zigzag. Both a zigzag and the start of an impulse subdivide 5-3-5, so at this stage it is not possible to determine which this may be. Both possibilities must be considered.

At 36.21 intermediate wave (3) or (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1) or (A).

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 24.80.

If this wave count is correct, then price should continue to find support at the lower edge of the black channel along the way up. The earliest warning this wave count may be wrong and the alternate below may be correct would be a breach of the lower edge of the black channel.

If price breaks above the upper edge of the black channel, then intermediate wave (3) would be accelerating. It may complete a blowoff top at its end. A very strong upwards day with a strong volume spike may signal the end of intermediate wave (3).

ALTERANTE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

If price breaks below the lower edge of the black channel, then this wave count should be used. Assume the main wave count is correct while price remains within the black channel.

It is possible that primary wave A was a complete impulse on 16th of July, and primary wave B began there as an expanded flat correction.

If A is a five, then B may not move beyond its start below 12.40. Targets for primary wave B would be the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci ratios at 20.07 and 16.70.

If primary wave B is a flat correction, then within it intermediate wave (B) is so far 1.97 the length of intermediate wave (A). This is considerably longer than the normal range of up to 1.38, which reduces the probability of this wave count. Above 29.26 intermediate wave (B) would be longer than 2 times the length of intermediate wave (A). At that stage, the idea of an expanded flat should be discarded due to an extremely low probability.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY

GDX weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

At the weekly chart level, there was double bullish divergence between price and RSI at the low of January 2016.

There is still single bearish divergence between price and RSI now at the current high. Volume for last week was reasonable, greater than the two prior upwards weeks but slightly less than the prior downwards week.

ADX still indicates the longer term weekly trend is upwards. ATR agrees as it is increasing. However, ADX is now over 45, so the trend is extreme. Caution is advised. If the market is still trending, then price should find support about the 13 week moving average. A clear break below this average would indicate a larger correction may have arrived.

On Balance Volume is finding support at the yellow line. A break below this line would indicate price should move strongly lower for a deeper correction. In the first instance, it should be expected that OBV may find support at the line if it comes down to it again.

There is also divergence between price and Stochastics at the last two highs. This indicates some weakness.

DAILY

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Price may continue to find support at the cyan trend line. If that is breached, then it may find support at the lilac trend line.

On 1st of July (the last day of data from StockCharts), volume supported the upwards movement in price.

At the daily chart level, ADX is not extreme. ADX indicates there is an upwards trend in place. ATR neither agrees nor disagrees; it is flat. It should be assumed that there is still an upwards trend until ADX turns down or price breaks below support.

On Balance Volume has given a very recent strong bullish signal with a break above both yellow lines.

RSI and price exhibit bearish divergence (yellow lines). This indicates upwards movement may be weakening, a correction may arrive soon.

This analysis is published @ 04:08 a.m. EST.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th June, 2016

Charts only today.

Continue reading GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th June, 2016

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th June, 2016

Last analysis on 9th of April expected downwards movement to 17.67 – 17.11.

Price moved higher up to 26.17 at the end of April, then turned down for a shallow correction ending 22.44 by the end of May.

Summary: The trend remains the same until proven otherwise. While price remains within the channel on the daily chart the target is 36.21. This upwards trend is currently showing weakness. A break below the black trend channel on the daily chart would indicate a deeper longer lasting correction may have arrived. It would be confirmed by price with a new low below 22.44.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The whole wave down for cycle wave a subdivides well as a five wave impulse. However, GDX does not have adequate volume to produce typical looking Elliott wave structures. As always, this wave count comes with the strong caveat that this market is not sufficient in volume for a reliable Elliott wave analysis. It is a rough guide only. The direction expected from the Elliott wave count should be fairly reliable, but targets and invalidation points may not be.

Ratios within cycle wave a are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves 1 and 3, and primary wave 5 is 0.33 short of 0.236 the length of primary wave 3.

Ratios within primary wave 3 are: intermediate wave (3) is 3.48 short of 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate waves (3) or (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.02 longer than equality in length with minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is 0.38 longer than equality in length with minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

Within primary wave 5, there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between intermediate waves (1), (3) and (5).

The black channel is a best fit; this movement does not fit into an Elliott channel. The channel is breached very clearly and price has made a major new swing high above 17.04. A trend change was confirmed in February.

If analysis of downwards movement is correct that cycle wave a has subdivided as a five wave structure, then this tells us two things:

1. The bear market for GDX must be incomplete because a five may not be a corrective structure, so this must only be wave A.

2. Cycle wave b may not make a new high above the start of cycle wave a at 66.98.

Cycle wave b may be any one of 23 possible corrective structures. It may be a swift sharp zigzag, or it may be a sideways structure such as a flat, combination or triangle. It should last one to several years.

The first movement up for cycle wave b must be a clear five wave structure for a trend of this magnitude. It is possible that it is complete and finding resistance at the Magee bear market trend line.

If a larger correction begins from here, then targets would be the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci ratios at 19.83 and 16.57.

I have two daily wave counts. Volume and divergence with RSI indicate the alternate is more likely, but the trend should still be assumed until proven otherwise. The alternate should remain an alternate until price indicates it is correct with a breach of the channel on the main daily chart.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave A may be subdividing as a three or a five. If it is a five, it looks like an unfolding impulse. If it is a three, so far it looks like an unfolding zigzag. Both a zigzag and the start of an impulse subdivide 5-3-5, so at this stage it is not possible to determine which this may be. Both possibilities must be considered.

So far a 5-3 is complete. The next wave up should subdivide as a five. At 36.21 intermediate wave (3) or (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1) or (A).

Within intermediate wave (3) or (C), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 22.44.

If this wave count is correct, then price should continue to find support at the lower edge of the black channel along the way up. The earliest warning this wave count may be wrong and the alternate below may be correct would be a breach of the lower edge of the black channel.

At this stage, price may find strong resistance at the copy of the cyan trend line from the weekly chart. If price can break above this trend line, then the probability of this main wave count would increase over the alternate below.

ALTERANTE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is also possible that a five up is either complete or close to completion. If primary wave A subdivides as a five, then cycle wave b would be subdividing as a zigzag (or zigzag multiple).

Intermediate wave (3) is shorter than intermediate wave (1). This limits intermediate wave (5) to no longer than equality in length with intermediate wave (3), so that the rule regarding a third wave not being the shortest is met. This limit is at 29.09.

The first indication this alternate wave count may be correct would be a breach of the lower edge of the black channel. If that happens, then draw a Fibonacci retracement along the length of primary wave A. Use the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci ratios as targets for primary wave B.

If primary wave A is a five wave structure, then primary wave B may not move beyond the start of primary wave A below 12.40.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY

GDX weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

At the weekly chart level, there was double bullish divergence between price and RSI at the low of January 2016.

There is single bearish divergence between price and RSI now at the current high. Volume is declining (although at the time of publication the last week still has the session for Friday to add to it).

ADX still indicates the longer term weekly trend is upwards. ATR agrees as it is increasing.

At the end of this week (unless Friday is a spectacular upwards day), it looks like price and On Balance Volume will also exhibit bearish divergence.

Divergence is a warning of weakness. A trend change should be expected soon, but not necessarily now.

DAILY

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It should be expected that the trend remains up while price remains above the cyan trend line. Also, while the shorter 13 day moving average remains above the longer 21 day moving average, it should be expected that the trend remains up. Price should find support about the 13 day MA.

ADX is indicating there is an upwards trend. There is still room for the trend to run. ADX is between 25 and 45 indicating a strong trend, not yet extreme. On Balance Volume is bullish.

There is some indication of weakness with divergence between price and RSI from the high of 2nd May to the high of 8th of June. RSI is usually a fairly reliable indicator of trend weakness, but it can continue and develop as double divergence (or occasionally triple) before a trend change actually occurs.

This analysis is published @ 02:41 a.m. EST on 10th June, 2016.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th April, 2016

Upwards movement continued as expected for GDX.

Summary: Downwards movement to 17.67 – 17.11 should complete a second wave correction. Thereafter, a big third wave up should begin.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The whole wave down for cycle wave a subdivides well as a five wave impulse. However, GDX does not have adequate volume to produce typical looking Elliott wave structures. As always, this wave count comes with the strong caveat that this market is not sufficient in volume for a reliable Elliott wave analysis. It is a rough guide only. The direction expected from the Elliott wave count should be fairly reliable, but targets and invalidation points may not be.

Ratios within cycle wave a are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves 1 and 3, and primary wave 5 is 0.33 short of 0.236 the length of primary wave 3.

Ratios within primary wave 3 are: intermediate wave (3) is 3.48 short of 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate waves (3) or (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.02 longer than equality in length with minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is 0.38 longer than equality in length with minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

Within primary wave 5, there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between intermediate waves (1), (3) and (5).

The black channel is a best fit; this movement does not fit into an Elliott channel. The channel is breached very clearly and price has made a major new swing high above 17.04. A trend change is confirmed.

If it is correct that cycle wave a has subdivided as a five wave structure, then this tells us two things:

1. The bear market for GDX must be incomplete because a five may not be a corrective structure, so this must only be wave A.

2. Cycle wave b may not make a new high above the start of cycle wave a at 66.98.

Cycle wave b may be any one of 23 possible corrective structures. It may be a swift sharp zigzag, or it may be a sideways structure such as a flat, combination or triangle. It should last one to several years.

The first movement up for cycle wave b must be a clear five wave structure for a trend of this magnitude.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The first five up for intermediate wave (1) may now be complete. Intermediate wave (2) should now be underway.

Like Gold, it is very unlikely that intermediate wave (2) would be over already. It would be far too brief and far too shallow, failing to reach even the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio. Intermediate wave (1) lasted 41 days. If intermediate wave (2) is over at the low labelled minor wave A, it would have lasted only four days. The proportions are just too far off for that possibility to be seriously considered.

What is much more likely is intermediate wave (2) is incomplete and may be unfolding as a very common expanded flat correction.

The upwards wave labelled minor wave B does so far look and fit best as a three wave structure. It is a 1.05 length of minor wave A, meeting the requirement for an expanded flat and within the normal range of 1 to 1.38.

At 17.67 minor wave C would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A. This is reasonably close to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) at 17.11 giving a 0.56 target zone.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 12.40.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

PRICE

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Because Motive Wave squashes price when indicators are added, I will separate price out.

Price is moving sideways, range bound with resistance about 21.40 and support about 18.80. There has not been a breakout yet. For a breakout to be indicated a daily candlestick has to close comfortably above resistance or below support and it should do so on a day with a clear increase in volume, particularly for an upwards breakout. That has not happened yet.

INDICATORS

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume declines as price moves sideways. This still looks like a typical consolidation; there has been no breakout yet. Friday closed slightly above resistance, but it was only slight and volume was lower than Thursday. This does not look like a breakout.

ADX is starting to slightly increase as is ATR. Both of these indicators agree that a new upwards trend may be developing. This needs to be followed by a breakout from price above resistance for it to be reliable.

On Balance Volume is contained within the gold trend lines. OBV is not indicating an upwards breakout. That doesn’t mean it can’t be about to happen, just that it is not so far supported by OBV. A break out of the lines containing OBV may precede the direction for price.

During the prior upwards trend RSI reached overbought and then exhibited triple negative divergence with price at the high on 16th March. This was a strong signal that upwards movement was nearing an end and a consolidation should be expected.

RSI is increasing along with price moving higher for four days in a row now. This looks bullish short term.

The bottom line is price is still range bound. A breakout is necessary before any confidence may be had in the upwards trend resuming.

This analysis is published @ 01:43 a.m. EST on 10th April, 2016.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th February, 2016

The bear Elliott wave count was invalidated by a new high above 16.45. I have just one bull wave count now for GDX.

Summary: GDX is in a bull market confirmed by price.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count is changed from the last monthly wave count. The the reason for the change is downwards wave labelled primary wave 5 looks like and subdivides perfectly as a five wave impulse.

I have also moved the degree of labelling all up one degree.

The whole wave down for cycle wave a subdivides well as a five wave impulse. However, GDX does not have adequate volume to produce typical looking Elliott wave structures. As always, this wave count comes with the strong caveat that this market is not sufficient in volume for a reliable Elliott wave analysis. It is a rough guide only. The direction expected from the Elliott wave count should be fairly reliable, but targets and invalidation points may not be.

Ratios within cycle wave a are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves 1 and 3, and primary wave 5 is 0.33 short of 0.236 the length of primary wave 3.

Ratios within primary wave 3 are: intermediate wave (3) is 3.48 short of 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate waves (3) or (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.02 longer than equality in length with minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is 0.38 longer than equality in length with minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

Within primary wave 5, there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between intermediate waves (1), (3) and (5).

The black channel is a best fit; this movement does not fit into an Elliott channel. The channel is not yet breached by a full daily candlestick above it and not touching it. However, a new high above the end of intermediate wave (4) at 17.04 has provided price confirmation of a trend change.

If it is correct that cycle wave a has subdivided as a five wave structure, then this tells us two things:

1. The bear market for GDX must be incomplete because a five may not be a corrective structure, so this must only be wave A.

2. Cycle wave b may not make a new high above the start of cycle wave a at 66.98.

Cycle wave b may be any one of 23 possible corrective structures. It may be a swift sharp zigzag, or it may be a sideways structure such as a flat, combination or triangle. It should last one to several years.

The first movement up for cycle wave b must be a clear five wave structure for a trend of this magnitude.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

So far the first five up at intermediate degree is incomplete.

An impulse may be complete and is labelled minor wave 1. The next impulse up for minor wave 3 looks to be incomplete. At 17.75 it would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

When minor wave 3 is complete, then minor wave 4 should unfold lower and may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 14.65.

Now that price is above the upper edge of the best fit channel downwards movement may find support at that trend line.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GDX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The rise in price is supported by volume.

The gap noted on the chart would give a target for upwards movement to 18.52. The upper edge of the gap found support at the 200 day moving average.

ADX indicates there is a trend and it is up. ATR agrees that there is a trend.

The break above the lilac line by On Balance Volume is very bullish.

The trend is up. Corrections present an opportunity to join the trend. The cyan trend line may provide support, as may the 34 day exponential moving average.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st December, 2015

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly bear 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The bull wave counts for Gold have been invalidated, so I will not follow them for GDX. I will let Gold lead GDX.

GDX has been in a bear market since September 2011. While price remains below the upper edge of the channel drawn here there has been no technical confirmation of a trend change from bear to bull. The bear market should be expected to remain intact until there is confirmation it is not.

At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (5) must subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. At this stage, it will not fit as an ending diagonal, so the more common impulse should be expected to complete.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 16.45 within the impulse of intermediate wave (5).

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Within intermediate wave (5), minor wave 3 is close to an end.

At 12.37 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (iv) at this stage looks like it may be a completed regular contracting triangle. If the triangle is invalided by movement above 14.07, then this fourth wave may be morphing into a combination. At that stage, the alternate below should be used.

Minute wave v fits nicely within an Elliott channel at this stage. If price remains within the channel and moves lower, then minuette wave v may be complete. Thereafter, a breach of the channel would confirm that minuette wave v is over, so minor wave 3 should be over.

ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

It is also possible that the triangle is subminuette wave b within a zigzag for minuette wave (iv).

This would see minuette wave (iv) move higher for a couple to a few days. It may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 15.61.

This idea must have a lower probability because it would see minuette wave (iv) breach the Elliott channel and there would be less alternation between minuette waves (ii) and (iv).

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

ADX indicates there is no clear trend. ATR agrees as it is declining.

On Balance Volume sits between two parallel trend lines. A break out of this range by OBV may precede price direction.

As price moves sideways volume declines. There is no support for upwards days. Overall, the volume profile for recent movement looks more bearish than bullish.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th October, 2015

BEAR – MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly bear 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

BEAR – DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

BULL – MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly bull 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

There are at this stage three likely structures for primary B for the bull wave count .

BULL – DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT – EXPANDED FLAT

GDX daily expanded flat 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

BULL – DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT – TRIANGLE

GDX daily triangle 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

BULL – DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT – COMBINATION

GDX daily combination 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (Y) may be an expanded flat. The target may be too low as it may not see primary B breach the bear market channel, and it should.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st August, 2015

BEAR – MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly bear 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

BEAR – DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

BULL – MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly bull 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

There are at this stage three likely structures for primary B for the bull wave count .

Please note: these three ideas work in the same way for Gold. There, these three ideas are three structures for cycle wave b. These will be published at the weekly chart level for Gold next analysis and each day thereafter. One by one they may be eliminated until only one is left.

BULL – DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT – EXPANDED FLAT

GDX daily expanded flat 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

BULL – DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT – TRIANGLE

GDX daily triangle 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

BULL – DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT – COMBINATION

GDX daily combination 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

A double zigzag should be eliminated for primary B because the X wave would be far too deep. For a combination intermediate (Y) is most likely a flat, but it may also be a triangle.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st July, 2015

I will let Gold lead. For this reason only I will not publish a bull wave count for GDX.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

Changes to last analysis are bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly alternate 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Price remains within the best fit channel on the monthly chart. A five wave structure down is completing, which may be an A wave within a larger correction.

Within minute wave iii, a second wave correction may not move beyond its start above 21.26.

At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

At this stage, regular technical analysis strongly favours the bear wave count. A downwards trend is clear and strong.

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The middle of the third wave for GDX may have now passed.

At 12.12 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. This target expects there would be no more swift strong fifth wave extensions for GDX, which may not be a very reasonable expectation.

If the target is wrong, then it may be too high.

Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. Look for it to find resistance at the upper edge of the orange channel, and if that is breached at the lower edge of the green channel.

Looking back at past major lows for GDX, a volume spike is not seen right at the low but one to four days prior to the low.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

ADX continues to indicate a strengthening downward trend for GDX. On Balance volume continues to move lower along with price, the trend is supported by volume.

Price is below the 34 day EMA indicating a downward trend.

The gap looks like a breakaway or measuring gap and not a pattern gap, so it should not be expected to be filled.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th July, 2015

I have the same two Elliott wave counts for GDX. I favour the bear wave count.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

Changes to last analysis are bold.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly alternate 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Price remains within the best fit channel on the monthly chart. A five wave structure down is completing, which may be an A wave within a larger correction.

Within minute wave iii, a second wave correction may not move beyond its start above 21.26.

At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

At this stage, regular technical analysis strongly favours the bear wave count. A downwards trend is clear and strong.

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (5) has now five overlapping first and second waves. This indicates strong downwards movement ahead.

I do not think the middle of this third wave has yet passed because downwards momentum has not yet shown an increase beyond that seen for minute wave i, or minor wave 1 (off to the left of the chart now) which was stronger still. Minor wave 3 may be expected to have stronger momentum than minor wave 1.

At 14.29 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). Minuette wave (iii) should have the power to break below support at the lower edge of the base channel. The strongest downward momentum may come for subminuette wave v within minuette wave (iii).

At 12.12 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The alternate wave count expects that the five wave impulse is complete for primary wave A down. Within it, the extended wave is intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (3) is 0.11 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate wave (5) and either of (1) or (3).

The channel drawn about primary wave A down is a best fit. The upper edge is still providing resistance. For the main count (or any variation of it) to be discarded this trend line must be breached. That would provide trend channel confirmation that primary wave A is over and the next wave of primary wave B would then be underway.

Because primary wave A subdivides as a five, primary wave B may not move beyond its start above 64.05.

Primary wave B must subdivide as a corrective structure. At this stage, it looks now like it may be unfolding as a flat correction and within it intermediate wave (A) is a three, a zigzag, and intermediate wave (B) now a complete double zigzag.

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (B) has reached below the minimum requirement of 90% of intermediate wave (A) for a flat correction, which was at 17.13.

There is no maximum length for a B wave within a flat, and there is no downward invalidation point for this wave count for that reason. The difference is in structure. Intermediate wave (B) must subdivide as a corrective structure, where the main wave count requires an impulse to complete downward.

Minuette wave (v) may yet continue lower.

A new high above 19.18 is required to confirm this wave count. At that stage the main wave count would be invalidated.

Intermediate wave (B) is a 101% correction of intermediate wave (A), at this stage, indicating a regular flat. If intermediate wave (B) does not move lower, then intermediate wave (C) may be expected to end at least slightly above the end of intermediate wave (A) at 23.22 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Blue Lines: from the high at 55.25 to the high at 28.03 price moved lower while On Balance Volume moved higher. This negative divergence may indicate a larger fall to come.

Lilac Lines: More recently, as price has made lower highs, OBV has also made lower highs. There is no divergence, so the fall in price is supported by a fall in volume.

Green Lines: Recently price has also made higher lows. Again OBV agrees. There is no divergence. Both price and OBV have broken below these lines, another bearish indicator.

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

ADX continues to indicate a strengthening downward trend for GDX. On Balance volume continues to move lower along with price, the trend is supported by volume.

Price is below the 34 day EMA indicating a downward trend.

GDX is at this time clearer than Gold: there is a trend and it has been down for some time.

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

This is my own particular method of trend line analysis.

Each series of parallel lines is coded with a different colour. I use this approach to suggest potential areas of support and resistance.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th July, 2015

I have the same two Elliott wave counts for GDX. I still favour neither.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

Changes to last analysis are bold.

BEAR ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly alternate 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Price remains within the best fit channel on the monthly chart. A five wave structure down is completing, which may be an A wave within a larger correction.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 23.22.

At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

At this stage, regular technical analysis strongly favours the bear wave count. A downwards trend is clear and strong.

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (5) has now three overlapping first and second waves: minor waves 1 and 2, minute waves i and ii, and now also minuette waves (i) and (ii). This indicates strong downwards movement ahead.

At 12.12 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Within minuette wave (iii), upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper green trend line. No second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 19.18.

Downwards momentum has not yet shown an increase beyond that seen for minute wave i, and so it should be expected to increase further in the next few weeks.

BULL ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The bull wave count expects that the five wave impulse is complete for primary wave A down. Within it, the extended wave is intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (3) is 0.11 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate wave (5) and either of (1) or (3).

The channel drawn about primary wave A down is a best fit. The upper edge is still providing resistance. For the bear count (or any variation of it) to be discarded this trend line must be breached. That would provide trend channel confirmation that primary wave A is over and the next wave of primary wave B would then be underway.

Because primary wave A subdivides as a five, primary wave B may not move beyond its start above 64.05.

Primary wave B must subdivide as a corrective structure. At this stage, it looks now like it may be unfolding as a flat correction and within it intermediate wave (A) is a three, a zigzag, and intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete double zigzag.

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

If intermediate wave (B) reaches 17.13 or below, then the minimum requirement for it to correct to 90% of intermediate wave (A) for a flat correction would be met. Because the downwards structure within intermediate wave (B) is incomplete, it looks very likely that this minimum would be met.

Intermediate wave (B) is unfolding as a double zigzag. The second zigzag labelled minor wave Y is deepening the correction.

The normal depth for a B wave within a flat correction is between 1 to 1.38 times the A wave. This gives a range for the normal depth of intermediate wave (B) between 16.45 to 11.85.

At 16.17 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Blue Lines: from the high at 55.25 to the high at 28.03 price moved lower while On Balance Volume moved higher. This negative divergence may indicate a larger fall to come.

Lilac Lines: More recently, as price has made lower highs, OBV has also made lower highs. There is no divergence, so the fall in price is supported by a fall in volume.

Green Lines: Recently price has also made higher lows. Again OBV agrees. There is no divergence.

Price is now breaking below support of its green trend line, as is OBV. This is a further bearish indicator.

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

ADX now indicates a clear and strengthening downwards trend.

OBV agrees with the fall in price. Price remains below the 34 day EMA. All regular TA indicators point to a strong downwards trend at this time for GDX. The bear wave count is favoured.

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

This is my own particular method of trend line analysis.

Each series of parallel lines is coded with a different colour. I use this approach to suggest potential areas of support and resistance.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th June, 2015

I have the same two Elliott wave counts for GDX. I still favour neither.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

Bull Wave Count

GDX monthly 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The bull wave count expects that a five wave impulse is complete for primary wave A down. Within it, the extended wave is intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (3) is 0.11 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate wave (5) and either of (1) or (3).

The channel drawn about primary wave A down is a best fit. The upper edge is still providing resistance. For the bear count (or any variation of it) to be discarded this trend line must be breached. That would provide trend channel confirmation that primary wave A is over and the next wave of primary wave B would then be underway.

Because primary wave A subdivides as a five, primary wave B may not move beyond its start above 64.05.

Primary wave B must subdivide as a corrective structure.

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The wave down labelled intermediate wave (X) is 88% of the prior upwards wave of intermediate wave (W). A flat correction can be ruled out for primary wave B, at this stage, because this is less than 90%. Intermediate wave (W) subdivides well as a zigzag.

Primary wave B may be unfolding as a double zigzag. The first zigzag in the double labelled intermediate wave (W) is complete. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled intermediate wave (X) which is also now complete. The second zigzag in the double is underway labelled intermediate wave (Y).

The purpose of the second zigzag in a double (and the third in a rare triple) is to deepen the correction when the first (and second) zigzag does not move price deep enough. To achieve this purpose the second (and third) zigzag moves substantially beyond the end of the first (and second). Intermediate wave (Y) may be expected to move substantially above the end of intermediate wave (W) at 23.22.

Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave A is a complete leading contracting diagonal. Minor wave B is now a complete expanded flat. Within it, minute wave c is 0.04 longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

At 28.12 minor wave C would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave A. This would see intermediate wave (Y) achieve its purpose of deepening the correction for primary wave B.

Bear Wave Count

GDX monthly alternate 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

While price continues to find strong resistance at the upper black trend line of this channel, this bear wave count must be considered alongside the bull wave count for GDX.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 23.22.

At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

A new low below 17.29 would at this stage invalidate the bull wave count and provide confirmation for this bear wave count.

This bear wave count expects a third wave down to begin to gather momentum. At 12.12 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Draw a base channel about minuette waves (i) and (ii). Along the way down, upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper trend line. A clear breach of the upper green line would reduce the probability of this bear wave count.

Technical Analysis

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Blue Lines: from the high at 55.25 to the high at 28.03 price moved lower while On Balance Volume moved higher. This negative divergence may indicate a larger fall to come.

Lilac Lines: More recently, as price has made lower highs, OBV has also made lower highs. There is no divergence, so the fall in price is supported by a fall in volume.

Green Lines: Recently price has also made higher lows. Again OBV agrees. There is no divergence.

The green and lilac trend lines on both price and OBV are converging suggesting a breakout is coming closer. With the strong divergence between price and OBV from September 2012 to July 2014 a downwards breakout may be slightly more likely.

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

ADX is just over 15 and rising. The -DX line (dashed red) is above the +DX line (green) indicating this may be the start of a new downwards trend. If ADX rises to 20 or above a downwards trend would be more clearly indicated.

As price falls OBV also falls. There is no divergence, so this fall in price is supported by OBV.

Price is below the 34 day EMA. The trend may be expected to be more likely down than up at this stage.

GDX Technical Analysis 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

This is my own particular method of trend line analysis.

Each series of parallel lines is coded with a different colour. I use this approach to suggest potential areas of support and resistance.