Category Archives: USD Index

USD Index Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 25th September, 2015

I have only one bullish Elliott wave count for the USD Index.

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The US Dollar has been in a bull market since July 2011. So far there is no confirmation of a trend change.The bull market should be assumed to remain intact until proven otherwise.

Ratios within intermediate wave (1) are: minor wave 3 is 24.98 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 3 or 1.

Within minor wave 3, there are no Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 8.46 short of 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 3 is 87.36 longer than 4.236 the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3, within intermediate wave (3), shows strongest upwards momentum. MACD supports the Elliott wave count.

Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 2 was a very deep 0.98 zigzag. Minor wave 4 may be unfolding as a very shallow triangle which would exhibit perfect alternation.

Draw a channel about intermediate wave (3) using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the highs labelled minor waves 1 to 3, then place a parallel copy on the low labelled minor wave 2. So far this contains all of intermediate wave (3). Minor wave 4 may find support at the lower edge of this channel if it gets that far.

The US Dollar has been in a sideways consolidation since mid March. During this sideways movement it is an upwards week which has strongest volume. This indicates that when the consolidation is complete an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards.

A final support line is shown in bright aqua blue.

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The daily chart shows the whole structure of minor wave 4 which may complete as a triangle, as expected, but it is also possible the triangle may be invalidated and the structure may morph into a combination.

Minute wave d may not move beyond the end of minute wave b above 12,096 for the triangle to remain valid. This invalidation point is not black and white because for a barrier triangle D may end slightly above B, as long as the B-D trend line remains essentially flat.

Minute wave e may not move beyond the end of minute wave c below 11,867. This point is black and white for the triangle. If it is breached, then minor wave 4 may be morphing into a combination.

I would not consider the possibility that minor wave 4 could be over at the low labelled minute wave a because it would not exhibit alternation with minor wave 2; they would both be zigzags.