Category Archives: Silver Historical

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th June, 2015

In line with Gold analysis, I have a bull and a bear Elliott wave count for Silver.

Price will tell us which one is correct, but before that happens structure and volume will indicate which is more likely.

Bull Wave Count

Silver weekly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

If cycle wave a is over and Silver, Gold and GDX have all recently seen cycle degree trend changes, then importantly for Silver cycle wave a subdivides as a double zigzag.

A double zigzag is a multiple, and the maximum number of corrective structures in a multiple is three. Any wave count which labels W, Y or Z as W-X-Y within them is invalid. W, Y and Z waves may only be simple corrective structures labelled A-B-C (or A-B-C-D-E in the case of a triangle).

Super Cycle II may not be a multiple and must be a flat correction. Within a flat correction the A wave must be a three, and a double zigzag is classified as a three.

Within a flat correction, cycle wave b must retrace a minimum 90% the length of cycle wave a at 46.279.

Within a flat correction, cycle wave b may make a new all time high above the start of cycle wave a, as in an expanded flat.

The most likely structure for cycle wave b to take price that high is a zigzag.

Silver daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

If cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag, then within it primary wave A should be a five wave structure, either an impulse or a leading diagonal.

At 22.485 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (3) may only subdivide as an impulse, and within it minor wave 1 looks like a five on the daily chart. Minor wave 2 should now be over, but if it continues lower it may not move below the start of minor wave 1 below 15.296.

A new high above 18.486 would invalidate the bear wave count and provide confidence in this bull wave count.

Bear Wave Count

Silver weekly 2015
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This bear wave count is identical to the bull wave count up to the end of the triangle for intermediate wave (B) within the second zigzag of primary wave Y.

Thereafter, it looks at the possibility that intermediate wave (C) within the zigzag is not over.

Within intermediate wave (C), minor wave 1 fits as a five better than the bull wave count. Minor wave 2 now though looks to be too large on the weekly and daily chart.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 18.486.

At 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

I have drawn a base channel about minor waves 1 and 2. The breach of this base channel is some cause for concern for the bear wave count now.

Silver daily 2015
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Minute wave ii has breached the base channel drawn about minor waves 1 and 2, one degree higher. Base channels often work to show where lower degree corrections find support / resistance, but not always. This wave count remains viable.

Minute wave ii should now be a complete zigzag. The middle of a third wave down may now be underway for Silver, along with Gold.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th April, 2015

In line with Gold analysis, I have a bull and a bear wave count for Silver. Price will tell us which one is correct, but before that happens structure and volume will indicate which is more likely.

Click charts to enlarge.

Bull Wave Count

Silver weekly 2015

If cycle wave a is over and Silver, Gold and GDX have all recently seen cycle degree trend changes, then importantly for Silver cycle wave a subdivides as a double zigzag.

A double zigzag is a multiple, and the maximum number of corrective structures in a multiple is three. Any wave count which labels W, Y or Z as W-X-Y within them is invalid. W, Y and Z waves may only be simple corrective structures labelled A-B-C (or A-B-C-D-E in the case of a triangle).

Super Cycle II may not be a multiple and must be a flat correction. Within a flat correction the A wave must be a three, and a double zigzag is classified as a three.

Within a flat correction cycle wave b must retrace a minimum 90% the length of cycle wave a at 46.279.

Within a flat correction cycle wave b may make a new all time high above the start of cycle wave a, as in an expanded flat.

The most likely structure for cycle wave b to take price that high is a zigzag.

Silver daily 2015

If cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag then within it primary wave A should be a five wave structure, either an impulse or a leading diagonal.

I have adjusted the wave count of intermediate waves (1) and (2) to see intermediate wave (1) as a five and intermediate wave (2) as a double combination.

If intermediate wave (1) is a five then primary wave A may be an impulse. This fits better if cycle wave b is to be a zigzag.

At 22.485 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (3) may only subdivide as an impulse. Within it minor wave 1 looks like a five on the daily chart. Minor wave 2 may or may not be over. If it continues lower it may not move below the start of minor wave 1 below 15.296.

A new high above 18.486 would invalidate the bear wave count and provide confidence in this bull wave count.

Bear Wave Count

Silver weekly 2015

This bear wave count is identical to the bull wave count up to the end of the triangle for intermediate wave (B) within the second zigzag of primary wave Y.

Thereafter, it looks at the possibility that intermediate wave (C) within the zigzag is not over.

Within intermediate wave (C) minor wave 1 fits as a five better than the bull wave count. Minor wave 2 now though looks to be too large on the weekly and daily chart.

Within minor wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 18.486.

At 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

I have drawn a base channel about minor waves 1 and 2. Price continues to find resistance at the upper edge of the base channel.

Silver daily 2015

The biggest problem with this bear wave count today is the base channel. It is difficult to see minute wave ii over at the high labelled minuette wave (a) because this upwards wave looks so much like a five wave impulse on the daily chart. For this wave count minute wave ii should continue, but that means it will breach the base channel drawn about minor waves 1 and 2, one degree higher.

It is also possible that my conclusion that minuette wave (a) is a five wave structure is wrong because this upwards movement may have been a zigzag multiple. A new low below 15.296 would indicate that this is so, and at that stage I would expect minute wave ii was over and minute wave iii within minor wave 3 down may be underway.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 18.486.

Since the end of minor wave 2 at 18.486 it is down days which have the highest volume. This may indicate that the trend remains down. This slightly favours the bear wave count.

The ADX level is low (below 20) and declining, indicating the market is in a consolidation phase, not trending. This indicates that although price is below the 20 day EMA the trend is not necessarily clearly down, the signal may be false. MACD is close to zero indicating a lack of momentum. This fits a wave count which sees Silver as within a second wave correction at this time.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th March, 2015

I have a new Elliott wave count for Silver which is in line with Gold. I will let the Gold analysis lead Silver and GDX, not the other way around, so the new wave count is the main wave count.

Charts only today.

Click charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

Silver weekly 2015

If cycle wave a is over and Silver, Gold and GDX have all recently seen cycle degree trend changes, then importantly for Silver cycle wave a subdivides as a double zigzag.

A double zigzag is a multiple, and the maximum number of corrective structures in a multiple is three. Any wave count which labels W, Y or Z as W-X-Y within them is invalid. W, Y and Z waves may only be simple corrective structures labelled A-B-C (or A-B-C-D-E in the case of a triangle).

Super Cycle II may not be a multiple and must be a flat correction. Within a flat correction the A wave must be a three, and a double zigzag is classified as a three.

Within a flat correction cycle wave b must retrace a minimum 90% the length of cycle wave a at 46.279. This would suggest a higher target for Gold should be calculated.

Within a flat correction cycle wave b may make a new all time high above the start of cycle wave a, as in an expanded flat.

The most likely structure for cycle wave b to take price that high is a zigzag.

Silver daily 2015

If cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag then within it primary wave A should be a five wave structure, either an impulse or a leading diagonal.

It is very difficult to see the first upwards movement as a five, but it can be seen as a three. Within a leading diagonal sub waves 1, 3 and 5 are most commonly zigzags. Primary wave A may be unfolding as a leading diagonal.

Intermediate wave (2) is 0.72 of intermediate wave (1), nicely within the common depth for a second or fourth wave of a diagonal of between 0.66 to 0.81.

Intermediate wave (3) must move above the end of intermediate wave (1) above 18.486. It is most likely to unfold as a zigzag.

If intermediate wave (2) continues lower it may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 14.077.

Alternate Wave Count

Silver weekly 2015

This was the prior only wave count for Silver. At the weekly chart level minor wave 2 does look to be too large.

Silver daily 2015

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 18.486.

Targets remain the same. At 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd March, 2015

I’ve struggled to figure out what Silver has been doing on the daily chart for this last month. I think the market is now a little clearer.

Charts only today.

Click chart to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2015

Silver daily 2015

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th November, 2014

Summary: I am expecting a sideways consolidation for two to four days before a resumption of the downwards trend.

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Silver weekly 2014

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief (more common), or sometimes they are a very long extension. At this stage though the lower target is beginning to look more likely.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks. So far it has lasted 17 weeks and may yet continue towards the target for a further 4 or 17 weeks, if it exhibits a Fibonacci duration. However, please note, Silver does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci durations nor do its waves reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios to each other in terms of duration.

Silver daily 2014

Downwards movement invalidated the wave count from two days ago. This downwards movement is too deep to be a B wave within an expanded flat for minor wave 2, so although minor wave 2 was very shallow and brief it is most likely over already.

My only concern with this wave count at this stage is the degree of labelling within minor wave 3, and unless it exhibits a long strong fifth wave (typical of commodities) then I may need to move the degree of labelling within it all down one degree.

At this stage it looks like a 5-3-5 down within minor wave 3 is complete. This may be minute waves i, ii and iii as labeled, or it may only be minuette waves (i), (ii) and (iii) within minute wave i. Either way, at this stage I would expect to see a small fourth wave correction before the continuation of more downwards movement.

Minute wave ii lasted two days and shows clearly on the daily chart. I would expect minute wave iv to last at least two days, and quite likely longer as fourth wave corrections are often more long lasting than second waves when the second wave is a zigzag and the fourth wave is a combination or triangle.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 17.212.

The blue channel about minor waves 1 and 2 is a base channel. It is overshot at the lower edge which should be expected from a third wave.

Silver hourly 2014

This hourly chart shows almost all the structure within minor wave 3 so far. There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i. When minute wave iv is complete I will expect to see a Fiboancci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Within minute wave iii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (iii) and (i), and minuette wave (v) is .081 longer than .618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Minute wave ii was a relatively shallow .44 zigzag correction (or possibly a double zigzag). I would expect minute wave iv to be more shallow, because it should find resistance at the upper edge of the channel and it is likely to end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree between 15.706 and 16.242.

Minute wave iv is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. All of these structures may include a new price extreme beyond its start so there can be no lower invalidation point for this wave count at this time.

Draw a channel about minor wave 3 using Elliott’s technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel line on the end of minute wave ii. Minute wave iv may find resistance at the upper edge of this channel. The following fifth wave down may find support at the lower edge, but is quite likely to break through that support and end below the channel.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2014

Downwards movement continued as expected for Silver. I do not think minor wave 1 is over yet though; we should see a final fifth wave down to complete it. Thereafter, I would expect an upwards correction for minor wave 2.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2014

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief (more common), or sometimes they are a very long extension. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks. So far it has lasted 12 weeks and may yet continue towards the target for a further 9 or 22 weeks, if it exhibits a Fibonacci duration. However, please note, Silver does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci durations nor do its waves reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios to each other in terms of duration.

Silver daily 2014

Current sideways movement looks very much like a triangle. A triangle may not be the sole corrective structure for a second wave. Therefore, I do not think this is minor wave 2 and so minor wave 1 must be incomplete. This triangle looks like a typical fourth wave.

Minute wave iii is 0.29 short of 4.236 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.14 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

When minute wave iv is complete then I would be able to calculate a target down for you for minute wave v. I cannot do that yet as I do not know where minute wave v begins. I would expect it is very likely to be only equal in length with minute wave i which was only 0.523.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 20.585.

When minor wave 1 is a completed five wave impulse then minor wave 2 should begin. Minor wave 2 should move price higher, it should be choppy and overlapping. It should last at least two weeks and probably longer.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th September, 2014

At this stage I expect Silver should end this first wave down next week. The short term target is 18.335. Thereafter, a second wave correction should unfold which may be very deep.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2014

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief (more common), or sometimes they are a very long extension. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks, and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks. So far it has lasted 9 weeks and may yet continue towards the target for a further 12 or 25 weeks, if it exhibits a Fibonacci duration. However, please note, Silver does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci durations nor do its waves reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios to each other in terms of duration. This expectation of another 12 or 25 weeks can only be a rough guideline.

Silver daily 2014

For July, August and September the strongest volume is on down days. This traditional technical analysis supports the Elliott wave count.

The triangle for intermediate wave (B) is very likely to be complete. It is a barrier triangle: the B-D trend line is essentially flat (in fact, minor wave D ends very slightly below the end of minor wave B by 0.004).

Intermediate wave (C) downwards should subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse (most likely) or an ending diagonal (less likely). At this stage it is far too early to tell which structure may unfold although an impulse does look to be what is happening.

Minor wave 1 is almost complete, and it is unfolding as a simple impulse.

Within minor wave 1 there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio exhibited for minute wave v to either of i or iii. At 18.335 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i. As this is the most common relationship for a fifth wave this target has the highest probability.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii), and minuette wave (v) is 0.053 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves i and iii, and subminuette wave v is 0.019 longer than equality with subminuette wave i.

Minor wave 1 does not fit nicely into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques so I have drawn a best fit channel instead. When this channel is very clearly breached by a full daily candlestick above the upper pink trend line and not touching it then I would have confidence that minor wave 1 is over and minor wave 2 is underway. I would expect minor wave 2 to most likely be deep, maybe reaching up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 21.579.

Silver hourly 2014

Only the final fifth wave downwards is required to complete the structure for minor wave 1.

Minute wave v is incomplete. This downwards wave fits nicely so far into a channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the lows labeled minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy on the high labeled minuette wave (ii). In the first instance I would expect minuette wave (iv) to find resistance at the upper edge of that channel, and it may end there. Sometimes though fourth wave corrections are not contained within the channel which is why Elliott had a second technique to use when they breach the channel.

Minuette wave (ii) was a relatively deep 55% expanded flat correction. Minuette wave (iv) may be completing as a more shallow zigzag. It may end about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (iii) at 18.719.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 18.920.

When there is one more wave down to new lows, which may be minuette wave (v), then subsequent movement above 18.920 would provide price confirmation that minor wave 1 is over because at that stage upwards movement could not be a continuation of minuette wave (iv), so minute wave v and minor wave 1 would have to be over.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd September, 2014

Last Elliott wave analysis for Silver (and GDX) expected the trend was down. It turns out this was correct, as it has been confirmed for Gold today.

Although the alternate wave count for Silver is not technically invalidated, I expect it should be within another couple of weeks. I will just present the one wave count for you today, with Gold, Silver and GDX all in alignment.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2014

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks, and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks. So far it has lasted 8, so it may yet continue towards the target for a further 13 or 26 weeks if it exhibits a Fibonacci duration. However, please note, Silver does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci durations nor do its waves reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios to each other in terms of duration. This expectation of another 13 or 26 weeks can only be a rough guideline.

Silver daily 2014

The triangle for intermediate wave (B) is very likely to be complete. It is a barrier triangle: the B-D trend line is essentially flat (in fact, minor wave D ends very slightly below the end of minor wave B by 0.004). This may indicate a brief movement to follow for intermediate wave (C).

Intermediate wave (C) downwards should subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse (most likely) or an ending diagonal (less likely). At this stage it is far too early to tell which structure may unfold although an impulse does look to be what is happening.

Minor wave 1 is incomplete, and it is unfolding as a simple impulse. Within it the middle of a third wave has passed. There are no Fibonacci ratios between minuette waves (iii) and (i), nor any Fibonacci ratios within the subdivisions of minuette wave (iii). This is slightly unusual for Silver.

Minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i. I would expect it likely we should see a Fibonacci ratio for minute wave v. At 18.913 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i. This target has the higher probability because it expects the most common relationship for minute wave v. At 18.693 minute wave v would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave iii. This target has a slightly lower probability.

Minor wave 1 so far fits nicely in an Elliott channel: draw the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy on the low labeled minute wave iii. I would expect minute wave v to end about the lower edge of that channel, or possibly to overshoot the channel if a strong extended fifth wave develops.

Most importantly this channel may be used to confirm the end of minor wave 1. When there is one full daily candlestick above the upper pink trend line, and not touching it, then I would have confidence that minor wave 1 is over and minor wave 2 has begun. At that stage the invalidation point would be moved right up to the start of minor wave 1 at 21.579 and I would expect minor wave 2 to last a few weeks.

For now minute wave v is incomplete. While it is underway no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 19.907.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th August, 2014

Last Elliott wave analysis for Silver expected to see some upwards movement for a second wave correction, but this is not what happened. The first wave moved lower.

I expect now that we shall see downwards movement towards 18.802 to complete a third wave. Notice that since 1st of August Gold has trended sideways (and slightly higher) while Silver has clearly trended downwards. They quite simply do not always have to move together.

I expect that while Gold finishes an ending diagonal (very choppy, generally trending upwards) Silver will complete this downwards impulse and its fourth wave corrections will correspond to Golds upwards waves.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Silver weekly 2014

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks, and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks.

Silver daily 2014

The triangle for intermediate wave (B) is very likely to be complete.

Intermediate wave (C) downwards should subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse (most likely) or an ending diagonal (less likely). At this stage it is far too early to tell which structure may unfold.

Minor wave 1 is incomplete, and it is unfolding as a simple impulse. Within it the middle of a third wave has passed. There are no Fibonacci ratios between minuette waves (iii) and (i), nor any Fibonacci ratios within the subdivisions of minuette wave (iii). This is slightly unusual for Silver.

At 18.802 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 20.735.

Minuette wave (iv) should last about three to seven days in total. It may find resistance at the upper edge of the green channel. Draw the channel using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy on the high of minuette wave (ii).

Silver hourly 2014

Minuette wave (iii) is most likely over, and minuette wave (iv) has most likely begun.

Minuette wave (iv) may end when price comes very close to, or touches the upper edge of the Elliott channel copied over here from the daily chart.

I would expect minuette wave (iv) to end below the end of the fourth wave of one lesser degree.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 20.735.

Alternate Wave Count.

Silver weekly alternate 2014

This alternate wave count sees intermediate wave (B) as an incomplete zigzag and not as a complete triangle.

This alternate would expect intermediate wave (B) to break through resistance at the aqua blue trend line. However, this is unlikely and reduces the probability of this wave count to an alternate.

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) above 34.515.

Silver daily alternate 2014

Minute wave ii may be continuing lower; the structure must be incomplete.

The channel about minute wave ii is drawn using Elliott’s technique for a correction: the first trend line is drawn from the start of minuette wave (a) to the end of minuette wave (b), then a parallel copy is placed upon the end of minuette wave (a). Only the end of micro wave 3 is overshooting the channel, and as this is a third wave that is entirely acceptable, even should be expected.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 18.581.

I am still considering this alternate idea because for the main wave count (at the daily chart level) minor wave E of the triangle is such a strong overshoot. Sometimes E waves overshoot the A-C trend line of triangles when they come to an end, but not by that much. It has a slightly strange look.

This wave count requires a new high above 21.579 for confirmation. While price remains below 21.579 the main wave count will have a much higher probability.

At 25.484 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th July, 2014 – Charts Only

Click on charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Silver weekly 2014

Silver daily 2014

Alternate Wave Count.

The triangle is starting to look strange because the overshoot of the A-C trend line for minor wave E looks too big. Therefore, I have the alternate idea below.

Silver weekly alternate 2014

Silver daily alternate2014

The end of minor wave B, the ending diagonal of minuette wave (v), does not have a good fit. This reduces the probability of this wave count. The main wave count has a better fit for this piece of movement.