More upwards movement was expected for the week for US Oil. Price has moved sideways, remaining above the invalidation point on the daily Elliott wave count.
A very small range inside day only changes the Elliott wave count at the hourly chart level, slightly. The bigger picture and the target remain the same.
A break below the channel and then below 1,260.03 has indicated the second hourly Elliott wave count was correct.
A simple classic technical analysis pattern may answer the question of what direction to expect tomorrow from the S&P500 upon release of Non Farm Payroll data. This release is expected to move markets strongly:.
Pennants are reliable continuation patterns. The pattern is supported if volume declines as the pattern forms. Pennants normally appear about halfway within a trend.
The measured rule takes the flag pole which precedes the pattern and adds that length to the expected breakout of the pattern.
If this pattern is correct, then tomorrow may see an upwards breakout to new all time highs for the S&P500.
Published @ 06:28 a.m. EST.
An upwards day was again expected as most likely, but this is not what happened. Price remains above the invalidation point on the main hourly chart, and has quickly returned to within the blue channel.
For those who want to hone their Elliott wave knowledge, have a go at spotting my deliberate mistakes:
This one is easy (at least, I think it is and I’ve really tried to make it easy).
There is one mistake in the triangle (just one!) and one mistake in the impulse.
Can you find them both?
Name the rules which I have deliberately broken here. Answers will be posted in comments tomorrow or the day after.
Note: During the process of preparing this post, I found a solution that fixes my main problem with the current alternate wave count. This solution will be published in tomorrow’s Gold analysis.
Published @ 05:49 a.m. EST.
Upwards movement continued at the start of the week towards the target. After almost reaching the target on the second Elliott wave count, and finding resistance at its channel, Silver has turned down.
An upwards day was expected, but this is not what happened.
Two hourly Elliott wave counts are used today.
Volume analysis is essential to a full technical analysis. One of the simplest techniques is to look at volume during a consolidation and note which days, upwards or downwards, have strongest volume.
Gold has been within a large consolidation since about January 2017. A small resistance zone is about 1,295 to 1,300. A wide support zone is about 1,195 to 1,215. During this period of time, it is two upwards days that have strongest volume and this suggests that an upwards breakout may be more likely than a downwards breakout.
This technique does not always work, but it works more often than it fails. This technique is an exercise in probability and not certainty.
Published @ 04:00 a.m. EST.
Upwards movement continues as expected. A downwards whipsaw breached the invalidation point on the hourly chart, which was too close.
Upwards movement for the last week for US Oil was not expected and has breached an important trend line. The Elliott wave count this week is changed.
Overall, more upwards movement was expected; a slight new high fits the main Elliott wave count.
Downwards movement during Monday’s session remained above the short term invalidation point on the hourly chart.
Upwards movement was unexpected for Friday.