GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th March, 2017

Price continued lower as the two preferred hourly wave counts expected.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th March, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th March, 2017

The classic technical analysis picture has changed this week for US Oil. On Balance Volume is now giving a strong signal as to which direction price may break out.

Price has been consolidating now for about twelve weeks. There will be a breakout and it may come soon.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th March, 2017

Two hourly Elliott wave counts were provided yesterday. The first hourly wave count is now looking more likely.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th March, 2017

Price has moved higher but today’s candlestick closed red.

There are still at least two hourly Elliott wave counts for the main daily Elliott wave count. The alternate Elliott wave count has reduced in probability.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd March, 2017

Downwards movement continued as expected for the main Elliott wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd March, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd March, 2017

Last week expected a pullback for Silver.

Price moved higher for three days. Thereafter, it has turned down strongly.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd March, 2017

A strong breach of the base channel on the main hourly Elliott wave count shifted probability from bullish to bearish. The alternate Elliott wave count was then preferred because it expected more downwards movement.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st March, 2017

All three hourly Elliott wave charts yesterday expected some downwards movement to at least 1,240. Thereafter, the main wave count expected a resumption of upwards movement.

The low for the session was 1,237.18 and then from there price bounced to close green.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st March, 2017

Trading Room – 28th February, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at Copper, USD Index and DAX.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

Copper

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This analysis is overall neutral, neither bullish nor bearish. ADX is now declining after reaching extreme. Divergence with price and RSI (red lines) is bearish. Either a larger consolidation or a trend change is a reasonable expectation at this time, but no trend change has yet been indicated.

Volume is so far inconclusive. Sometimes at the beginning of a bear move volume can be light as the market falls of its own weight. However, light and declining volume does not support the fall in price so far.

TREND LINE ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The long term green line was perfectly touched just three weeks ago. This may provide strong resistance. The lilac line has now been breached (this is seen more clearly on the chart below). However, this lilac line is too steep for reasonable technical significance. That is the risk at this time with this analysis.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The lilac line has been breached and price has now turned up to find resistance there. If the green line holds, then this lilac line should too.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

USD Index

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD Index Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This market so far is moving upwards as has been expected. I am publishing this chart again today because at this time it may be offering a good opportunity to join a trend in the relatively early stages.

ADX is below 15, so no trend is yet indicated. ATR is still declining. These two indicators together signal caution about a potential upwards trend.

RSI is neutral. MACD and Bollinger Bands are bullish.

I particularly want to draw attention to the long lower wicks of the last three daily candlesticks. These are bullish.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USD Index Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This chart is the same as the last published daily Elliott wave chart for USD Index with the exception of the short term support line which is slightly redrawn. Notice the long lower wicks on the last three daily candlesticks and how they all sit neatly on the trend line.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

DAX

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAX Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Analysis of DAX is presented in response to a reader’s request and not because it offers a good opportunity at this time.

Some larger sideways consolidation or a deeper pullback here is a reasonable conclusion after ADX reached extreme and RSI exhibited double bearish divergence over a reasonable period of time. At this time, it looks like DAX is in a consolidation with an upwards bias. The risk here is a deeper pullback may develop.

VOLUME ANALYSIS

DAX Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

StockCharts do not offer volume data for international indices. This is FXCM volume data.

Watch On Balance Volume closely over coming days. If it breaks out of the current range, that may precede the next direction for price.

Strongest volume of recent days is for downwards days. This is bearish.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

DAX Chart Quarterly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A Super Cycle fifth wave may be completing. Super Cycle (IV) may have been a large contracting triangle, or it may have been a more brief zigzag (alternate weekly chart below).

MONTHLY CHART

DAX Chart Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The triangle fits, but it is not supported by MACD hovering about zero. This is not a requirement but does add confidence when it occurs.

WEEKLY CHART

DAX Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The weekly chart shows all of Super Cycle wave (V) to date. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 10,488.

DAILY CHART

DAX Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A correction for intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 10,807. Intermediate wave (3) may be over. This is supported by classic technical analysis. A deeper pullback may occur here, maybe to the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio about 11,527. That would see intermediate wave (4) end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree.

It is my conclusion at this time that DAX does not offer a good trading opportunity. The upwards trend looks stretched at this time, so a pullback may occur. If it does, then at its end it may offer an opportunity to join the upwards trend.

ALTERNATE MONTHLY CHART

DAX Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The conclusion for the short term may be the same even if the triangle is wrong. Cycle wave IV may have been a quicker zigzag. Cycle wave V may still be within the final fifth wave up. The daily chart would be the same for this idea.

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

This analysis is published @ 01:12 a.m. EST on 1st March, 2017.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th February, 2017

Some downwards movement was expected from all three hourly Elliott wave charts.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th February, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th February, 2017

This consolidation has now lasted for about 12 weeks. The breakout should come soon now.

Volume and On Balance Volume are giving strong signals as to which direction the breakout is most likely to be. Members are offered some advice on how to approach this market this week.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th February, 2017