GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th February, 2017

Another upwards day sees the main and alternate Elliott wave counts switched over.

What is now the alternate Elliott wave count still remains viable. It illustrates the risk today to trading based upon the main Elliott wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th February, 2017

The Trading Room – 8th February, 2017

Introduction:

The Trading Room is a new idea that I want to test and develop over the next few months.

I find myself spending a lot of time writing and publishing analysis of Gold and the S&P500 (over at Elliott Wave Stock Market) when those markets are quiet and range bound and offer no good trading opportunities. This focus on inactive markets takes focus away from markets that are trending and do offer good trading opportunities.

What if the focus was on finding good trading opportunities over a range of markets rather than daily analysis of specific markets? What if the Trading Room can be the platform for publishing these good trading opportunities?

Therefore, this Trading Room approach will look over a range of markets to identify any possible trading set ups which may unfold now or over the next few days, and the focus will be on trading set ups and not on teaching and learning Elliott wave.

Analysis will be brief and to the point.

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Today’s Trading Room focuses on NZDUSD, EURUSD, USD, and GDX:

EURUSD

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

So far upwards movement should be assumed to be a counter trend movement, until proven otherwise. The prior wave down put ADX into extreme and upwards movement from the 3rd of January has brought ADX back down from extreme. There is again room for a trend to develop.

Single divergence with Stochastics on its own is not enough to indicate a high in place. A breach of a support line should be seen before entering short.

Stockcharts do not offer volume data for currencies, so this is analysed below with BarChart data.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS + VOLUME ANALYSIS

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The best fit channel is slightly adjusted to be more conservative than the last published chart for EURUSD. If price can print a full daily candlestick below the lower edge of the yellow channel, that would offer further confidence in a trend change. When that trend line is breached, then it should offer resistance.

Stops may be set a little above the trend line offering a low risk high reward opportunity. Do not set stops too close to the line; allow the market room to move. Sometimes trend lines are overshot and this trend line is not perfect.

On Balance Volume has confidently breached a horizontal support line which offers strong technical significance. A retest of resistance at that line shows it holds. This is a strong bearish signal.

NZDUSD

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Classic technical analysis of this pair is very bearish. The long upper wick on this last daily candlestick is bearish. This trend is extreme; it will end sooner rather than later.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS + VOLUME ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

On Balance Volume has no trend line. Any trend line drawn would have too steep a slope to have reasonable technical significance.

If an expanding diagonal is unfolding, then minute iv must be either over now or very close indeed. There is almost no room left for it to move.

I have been analysing NZDUSD (because I’m a Kiwi) for years using Elliott wave and I will note that NZDUSD rarely offers good looking Elliott wave structures. Therefore, I place more weight in classic analysis of this pair than Elliott wave analysis. The Elliott wave analysis is supplementary.

I will wait for the green support line to be fully breached before going short here.

USD INDEX

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

There is not enough bullish indication here to go long yet. Upwards movement on this chart is a clear trend and downwards movement is choppy and overlapping, so downwards movement looks more like a counter trend movement. If that conclusion is correct, then USD should break out upwards.

The larger trend at the monthly chart level remains up and the 200 day moving average still has a positive slope.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Neither Stockcharts nor BarChart have volume data.

The short term yellow resistance line has been breached. However, the long upper wicks on the last two daily candlesticks gives some cause for concern.

Price may be bouncing up from the lower edge of the best fit channel. With another upwards day moving further away from the trend line, a long position may be entered. A stop may be set just below the last low.

GDX

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GDX Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Next resistance is at 26.0.

This chart is provided today mostly for members of Elliott Wave Gold and not because I see a trading set up here, because I don’t. (That doesn’t mean one does not exist, only that I don’t see it today).

Going long here risks entering at the end of the trend. ADX is nearing extreme and price has closed above the upper edge of Bollinger Bands now for the last four sessions.

Going short here is trying to pick a top. Before going short at least two of the following should be seen: a bearish candlestick pattern, a break of support by On Balance Volume, divergence with price from RSI while overbought, price to move below the short term 13 day moving average.

This analysis is published @ 02:59 a.m. EST.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th February, 2017

A small range inside day fits both Elliott wave counts, but the situation is no clearer.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th February, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

Price continues to consolidate for US Oil. On Balance Volume may assist to show the breakout direction, so it should be watched carefully.

The Elliott wave counts remain the same.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

Another upwards day fits the second hourly Elliott wave count. Price is now just above the target range, which was 1,219.11 to 1,233.43.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd February, 2017

An inside day for Friday’s session leaves both Elliott wave counts valid. Classic technical analysis may assist to determine whether the main or alternate Elliott wave count is correct.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd February, 2017

Two hourly Elliott wave counts look at two possible scenarios for the next session.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd February, 2017

EEM – iShares Emerging Markets Technical and Elliott Wave Analysis – 2nd February, 2017

In response to a member’s request here is an analysis of EEM.

This market may not have sufficient volume for a reliable Elliott wave analysis. For that reason classic technical analysis is presented first and should be given more weight. The Elliott wave analysis may only be used as a rough guideline.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

EEM Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Volume is declining as price is moving higher. This is a cause for concern at least for the short to mid term. Volume should increase for price to keep rising sustainably.

However, it is noted for the indices that in the last few years price has been rising on overall declining volume and this has been sustained for years. That may happen here with EEM.

On Balance Volume is at resistance. A break above the purple line would be a strong bullish signal.

RSI is not extreme and exhibits no divergence with price to indicate weakness.

ADX is increasing, indicating this market is trending. The trend is up. The trend is not extreme. There is plenty of room for this trend to continue.

Horizontal lines are added where price has previously found support and resistance. These lines above may offer resistance and price may consolidate there.

DAILY CHART

EEM Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The last rise to the last high on the 25th of January came with a decline in volume. A following fall in price for three days has found support at the sloping blue line.

There is a trend and it is upwards. The short term Fibonacci 13 day average is above the mid term Fibonacci 55 day average, and both are above the long term 200 day average. All have a positive slope.

ADX indicates a trend and it is not extreme at the daily chart level. There is room for this upwards trend to continue.

RSI has reached overbought though. Looking back over the last four years for this market, it does not remain overbought for long. Price can continue upwards while RSI exhibits divergence and this can persist for up to about a month before price turns. RSI suggests that this trend may become extreme and end within about a month. A larger consolidation or a trend change may occur then.

ATR is declining as price moves higher. This indicates some weakness. Each day bulls are able to push price up by a smaller and smaller amount.

Stochastics is overbought, but this oscillator may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market. It does not yet exhibit divergence with price.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MAIN WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

EEM Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The large wave down labelled super cycle wave (a) looks like a three. This is labelled as a zigzag. There is no Fibonacci ratio between cycle waves a and c within it.

If super cycle wave (a) is a three, then the larger structure may be a flat correction. Within a flat correction, super cycle wave (b) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of super cycle wave (a).

The normal range for super cycle wave (b) within a flat is from 1 to 1.38 times the length of super cycle wave (a). This means super cycle wave (b) may make a new high above 55.83.

Super cycle wave (b) must subdivide as a corrective structure. It looks like it may be a zigzag.

DAILY CHART

EEM Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The structure of cycle wave c may have begun with two overlapping first and second waves.

If a base channel is drawn about primary waves 1 and 2 (not shown), then intermediate wave (2) breaches the lower edge. This market does not behave perfectly according to base channels because they should provide support or resistance for lower degree second waves.

Within intermediate wave (3), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 33.94.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

EEM Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

What if the large downwards wave labelled super cycle wave (a) was not a zigzag? The only other possible structure would be an impulse.

This does not have as clear a look as the main wave count, and for that reason only it is an alternate. However, this market may not have sufficient volume for typical looking Elliott wave structures. Its threes may look like fives and vice versa. Both possibilities should be considered.

If super cycle wave (a) is a five, then super cycle wave (b) may not move beyond its start above 55.83.

Super cycle wave (b) would be very likely to end at least slightly above 50.83, so that cycle wave c is not truncated.

In the short and mid term, both wave counts expect that a zigzag is unfolding upwards for super cycle wave (b).

Both classic analysis and Elliott wave analysis expect more upwards movement for this market.

This analysis is published @ 01:34 p.m. EST.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st February, 2017

A new low below 1,202.92 invalidated the alternate hourly Elliott wave count and added confidence to the main hourly Elliott wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2017

Downwards movement was expected for Tuesday but did not happen.

Price has moved higher but remains below the invalidation point on the hourly Elliott wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2017