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SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th June, 2014

Movement above 19.824 and then 19.996 invalidated the main wave count and confirmed the alternate.

Silver has now finished its barrier triangle, and the next movement should be a five wave structure downwards. I will use the channels on the hourly chart to indicate when this trend change has occurred.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2014

The triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Within it the overshoot for minor wave E of the B-D trend line indicates that upwards movement is either over here or should be very soon.

At 10.85 intermediate wave (C) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 14.07 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with the widest part of the triangle. This gives a wide target zone. When there is structure within intermediate wave (C) to analyse I will be able to use minor wave degree to add to the target calculation and narrow it down. I cannot do that yet.

Intermediate wave (C) may last about 18 weeks, if it is 0.618 the duration of intermediate wave (A).

If intermediate wave (B) moves higher (and the trend change is unconfirmed so it may do so) then it may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) at 34.515.

Silver daily 2014

The triangle structure is correct and now either complete here or extremely close to completion.

I know members and visitors will comment that this wave count does not fit with Gold. I disagree. Gold expects downwards movement for a B wave at minor degree and this may coincide with Silver’s first wave down at minor degree. When Gold expects a following upwards wave for a C wave at minor degree this may coincide with a deep second wave correction for minor wave 2 on Silver. They most certainly can move together. However, Gold and Silver do not always have their highs and lows at the same point in time. Silver tends to lead Gold.

If this wave count is correct then intermediate wave (C) should begin either here or extremely soon. Once there is some indication of this trend change on the hourly chart with channel breaches I would have some more confidence in this wave count.

Minor wave E has overshot the A-C trend line. E waves of triangles most commonly undershoot the A-C trend line, but when they do not then they tend to overshoot the trend line (they do not end right at the trend line). This gives the triangle structure a typical look and indicates it should be ending about now.

While the trend change is not indicated on the hourly chart the invalidation point remains at 22.224. Minor wave E may not move beyond the end of minor wave C.

Silver hourly 2014

Within minor wave E zigzag I have drawn a parallel channel about minute wave c using Elliott’s second technique: draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette waves (ii) to (iv), then place a parallel copy upon the end of minuette wave (iii). This trend channel is overshot by a strong fifth wave which is typical behaviour for a commodity market. When this channel is breached by downwards movement I will have confidence that minor wave E is over and there has been a trend change to the downside.

In the first instance a breach of the channel containing minuette wave (v) would provide earliest indication of this trend change.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c within minor wave E zigzag.

Ratios within minute wave c are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.081 short of 4.236 the length of minuette wave (i), and there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

Ratios within minuette wave (v) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i, and subminuette wave v is so far 0.066 longer than equality with subminuette wave i.

The question mark next to the end of intermediate wave (B) indicates that it is not clear yet if this upwards movement is over. I want to see the channels on the hourly chart clearly breached before I have confidence in this trend change. If this wave count is correct then this trend change should happen within 72 hours, probably sooner rather than later.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th September, 2013

Last analysis expected upwards movement, but required a trend channel breach of the channel on the hourly chart before confidence could be had in a trend change. We have the breach now and a trend change confirmed, but price moved lower first.

This is exactly why I use trend channels; they are an integral part of Elliott wave analysis.

The wave count is mostly the same. A target can now be calculated for upwards movement to end.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

A downwards zigzag is unfolding at primary wave degree. Within the zigzag intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.

A parallel channel drawn about minor wave B is now clearly breached by upwards movement on the hourly chart, with an overshoot here on the daily chart. This channel breach indicates that minor wave B is over and now minor wave C is underway.

At 28.121 minor wave C would reach equality with minor wave A.

Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 21.216.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave B minute wave c is just 0.11 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

Within minor wave C minute wave i is probably complete. Minute wave ii may be complete or it may continue further as a flat correction. If it moves lower then the target for minute wave iii must move correspondingly lower also.

At 26.09 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 21.216.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th September, 2013

Last analysis expected Oil to move higher for a final fifth wave. This is not what happened. Price moved sideways then lower to breach the invalidation point on the hourly chart. The daily chart remains valid.

The wave count remains mostly the same. A final fifth wave upwards is still required to complete this structure.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

Cycle wave b is incomplete, and is unfolding as a double zigzag. Primary wave X within it was a contracting triangle.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change, and this may be where primary wave Y ends.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles. A more reliable way to calculate a target for this to end is using the ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C) within the second zigzag of the double.

At 122.55 intermediate wave (C) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 120.84 minor wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

The trend lines for the contracting triangle shown on the monthly chart will cross over in 2 or 3 days time. The trend lines are shown at the bottom of this chart. Place an extended vertical line at this point and look for a trend change at that time. Be very careful to draw the triangle trend lines accurately from A to C and B to D of the triangle, as shown on the monthly chart.

Within the ending diagonal for minor wave 5, minute wave iv may not move below 103.51.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minute wave iv may have continued further sideways as a contracting triangle. Minuette wave (c) within the zigzag of minute wave iv breached the last invalidation point on last analysis hourly chart, which had expected minute wave iv to be over already.

Within the ending diagonal of minor wave 5 minute wave iv is most likely to be at least as long as minute wave iii because the diagonal is expanding. It is most likely upwards movement will move above 113.76.

Minute wave v must unfold as a zigzag. Within the zigzag minuette wave (b) may not move below the start of minuette wave (a). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 104.96.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th September, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected some downwards movement towards a short term target at 22.463 to 22.481 before a trend change and upwards movement.

Price did move a little lower, but not as low as expected, falling 0.239 short of the target. We do not have confirmation of the trend change yet.

When the parallel channel on the hourly chart is breached by upwards movement then I shall have more confidence that the upwards trend has resumed.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

A downwards zigzag is unfolding at primary wave degree. Within the zigzag intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave B the structure may be seen as complete. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and b of this zigzag.

Ratios within minute wave c are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.043 longer than equality with minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.011 short of 0.236 the length of minuette wave (i).

Use Elliott’s technique to draw a parallel channel about minor wave B. Draw the first trend line from the start of minute wave a to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minute wave a. When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then we shall have confirmation that the upwards trend has resumed.

At 27.039 minor wave C would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave A. Upwards movement may find resistance at the upper edge of the blue channel drawn about intermediate wave (B) on the daily chart.

While price remains well within the channel on the hourly chart we must accept the possibility that minor wave B may continue lower, but it may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th September, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected upwards movement in a zigzag structure which is what has happened. The upwards zigzag is incomplete.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Cycle wave b is incomplete, and is unfolding as a double zigzag. Primary wave X within it was a contracting triangle.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change, and this may be where primary wave Y ends.

There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles. A more reliable way to calculate a target for this to end is using the ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C) within the second zigzag of the double.

At 122.55 intermediate wave (C) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 120.84 minor wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

Within the ending diagonal for minor wave 5, minute wave iv may not move below 103.51.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minor wave 5 is most likely unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal which is incomplete.

Within the diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide into zigzags, including the third wave. The fourth wave of a diagonal should overlap back into first wave price territory, but may not move beyond the end of the second wave.

Minute wave iii is longer than minute wave i, and minute wave iv is longer than minute wave ii. The diagonal is expanding. This would expect minute wave v to be longer than equality with minute wave iii which would be achieved at 114.27. We should expect upwards movement to reach this point at least.

I have seen diagonals sometimes have a third wave which is still the longest, so this minimum is a guideline with a good probability but if it is not reached, as long as the subdivisions are correct, the diagonal may still be valid.

Within the final upwards zigzag for minute wave v the structure is incomplete. Within it minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 105.51.

If price does move below 105.51 then it may be possible (but at this stage unlikely) that minute wave iv is continuing. The invalidation point moves down to 103.51.

Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th September, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected a little more upwards movement from Silver before a minor wave B downwards began. We did not see upwards movement; price just moved lower in what is so far a clear three wave structure.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2013

Within the first zigzag in the double, primary wave W, intermediate wave (C) is just 0.67 longer than intermediate wave (A).

Primary wave X is a completed regular contracting triangle.

Primary wave Y is incomplete.

Silver daily 2013

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Ratios within minor wave A are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is 0.06 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

Silver hourly 2013

Within minor wave B minute wave a is a completed five wave impulse, minute wave b is a completed zigzag, and minute wave c is an incomplete impulse.

There are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v) within minute wave a.

Within minute wave b minuette wave (c) is just 0.005 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (a).

Within minute wave c minuette wave (iii) is 0.081 longer than 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). We may not see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (iii) or (i). The target is best calculated one degree higher.

At 22.463 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a. This is close to 22.481 where minor wave B would reach the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave a. This gives us a 0.018 target zone for a little more downwards movement.

Within minute wave c minuette wave (v) may be unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal. Within it subminuette wave iv may yet move a little higher, but may not move beyond the end of subminuette wave ii at 23.652.

When minor wave B is complete we may calculate a target upwards for minor wave C. It is most likely to reach equality with minor wave A at 25.120 in length.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th September, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement from US Oil, which is not what happened. Price has moved lower to breach the invalidation point at 108.17 on the daily chart.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Cycle wave b is incomplete, and is unfolding as a double zigzag. Primary wave X within it was a contracting triangle.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change, and this may be where primary wave Y ends.

There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles. A more reliable way to calculate a target for this to end is using the ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C) within the second zigzag of the double.

At 122.55 intermediate wave (C) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 120.84 minor wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

There are two structural possibilities for minor wave 5: either an impulse or an ending diagonal. The impulse was invalidated with movement below 108.17. Minor wave 5 is most likely unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal.

Within the diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide into zigzags, including the third wave. The fourth wave of a diagonal should overlap back into first wave price territory, but may not move beyond the end of the second wave. Minute wave iv may not move below 103.51.

Within minute wave i zigzag there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves (a) and (c).

Within minute wave ii zigzag there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves (a) and (c).

Within minute wave iii zigzag minuette wave (c) is 0.47 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Within minute wave iv zigzag minuette wave (c) is 0.27 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Minute wave iii is longer than minute wave i, and minute wave iv is longer than minute wave ii. The diagonal is expanding. This would expect minute wave v to be longer than equality with minute wave iii which would be achieved at 114.27. We should expect upwards movement to reach this point at least.

I have seen diagonals sometimes have a third wave which is still the longest, so this minimum is a guideline with a good probability but if it is not reached, as long as the subdivisions are correct, the diagonal may still be valid.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd September, 2013

Price moved higher as expected. The main wave count remains the same.

I have a new alternate hourly wave count for you today. Both hourly wave counts expect more upwards movement, and the difference is in expected momentum.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Primary wave C may be complete.

A best fit parallel channel is so far clearly breached by upwards movement, no matter how the channel is drawn. This indicates a probable trend change.

Cycle wave V should last between one to several years and is most likely to take price to new all time highs.

In the short term at 1,545 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Within the new upwards trend of cycle wave V, within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,315.92.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Finally we have a nice clear channel breach of the small channel containing minute wave iv downwards. Once the channel was clearly breached price continued to rise.

So far within minute wave v we may have a series of two first and second waves. This would expect a small increase in upwards momentum over the next one to three days as the middle of minuette wave (iii) within minute wave v unfolds.

Within minute wave v no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,374.14.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

This alternate wave count is identical to the main wave count up to the low at 1,316.05 labeled minute wave ii. Thereafter, I have simply moved the degree of labeling within each of the two subsequent upwards impulses and their corresponding downwards corrections, down one degree.

We may be seeing a more extended minor wave 3 which has begun with a series of first and second waves. This alternate wave count also expects more upwards movement, but it expects a strong increase in upwards momentum.

This wave count fits better with MACD. The only problem with it is the duration of subminuette wave ii in comparison with minuette wave (ii) and minute wave ii, one and two degrees higher. Subminuette wave ii is longer in duration giving a lack of proportion to this wave count.

If we see a strong increase in upwards momentum over the next few days I would use this as my main wave count.

Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,359.24.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd September, 2013

Last analysis expected the end of a fourth wave correction to be confirmed by a channel breach on the hourly chart. We did not get a confirmation that the correction was over. Price continued lower breaching invalidation points on both hourly wave counts.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Primary wave C may be complete. Primary wave C is 28.96 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Ratios within primary wave C are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (3) and (1), and intermediate wave (5) is 13.77 short of 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (1) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 is 24.72 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1 (a 6.8% variation; I consider less than 10% acceptable), and minor wave 5 is 11.74 longer than 0.382 the length of minor wave 3.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is 10.78 longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i.

Ratios within intermediate wave (5) are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 1.61 short of equality with minor wave 3.

A best fit parallel channel is so far clearly breached by upwards movement, no matter how the channel is drawn. This indicates a probable trend change.

Within the new upwards trend of cycle wave V, within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,315.92.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This downwards movement cannot be minuette wave (iv) within minute wave iii, nor can it be subminuette wave iv within minuette wave (iii). Both of those wave counts were invalidated in last analysis.

The structure for this third wave, minor wave 3, is most likely incomplete. I have tried to see a five wave impulse completed within this upwards wave, but within it the third wave would be slightly the shortest. This core Elliott wave rule cannot be broken.

Within minor wave 3 incomplete this downwards movement is likely to be a fourth wave correction. It may be minute wave iv.

Minute wave iii is just 2.58 longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) is 4.37 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.27 short of 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (v) is extended. Ratios within minuette wave (v) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i, and subminuette wave v is 3.28 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

There is nice alternation between minute wave ii, a shallow 40% single zigzag, and minute wave iv, a slightly deeper 51% double zigzag.

A clear trend channel breach of the downwards sloping smaller channel about minute wave iv would provide confirmation that the correction is over and the next wave is underway. We still do not have this confirmation.

Movement above 1,413.97 would be strong indication that minute wave iv is completed as at that stage it could not be a second wave correction within subminuette wave c of minuette wave (y), and so minuette wave (y) would have to be over.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th August, 2013

Gold moved lower in a fourth wave correction, which was expected, and we had no confirmation that the correction was over.

The wave count remains the same at the daily chart level, with two hourly wave counts for you today.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Primary wave C may be complete. Primary wave C is 28.96 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Ratios within primary wave C are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (3) and (1), and intermediate wave (5) is 13.77 short of 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (1) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 is 24.72 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1 (a 6.8% variation; I consider less than 10% acceptable), and minor wave 5 is 11.74 longer than 0.382 the length of minor wave 3.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is 10.78 longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i.

Ratios within intermediate wave (5) are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 1.61 short of equality with minor wave 3.

A best fit parallel channel is so far clearly breached by upwards movement, no matter how the channel is drawn. This indicates a probable trend change.

Within the new upwards trend of cycle wave V, within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,315.92.

First Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This wave count follows on directly from last analysis. The downwards movement for the last two days may be minuette wave (iv) within an extending third wave of minute wave iii.

At this stage minuette wave (iv) subdivides best as a double zigzag. The second zigzag structure is completed. There is nice alternation between minuette waves (ii) and (iv) so far; minuette wave (ii) is a relatively shallow 43% single zigzag, minuette wave (iv) is a relatively deep 53% double zigzag.

When the best fit parallel channel drawn about minuette wave (iv) is clearly breached by upwards movement we shall have an indication that minuette wave (v) has begun.

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 1.11 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

At 1,431 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. This target is probably too low, and it would expect a very short fifth wave. At 1,502 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

When minuette wave (iv) has ended then the target for minute wave iii can be calculated at a second wave degree, so it may widen to a zone or it may change.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,384.60.

If this first wave count is invalidated with downwards movement then we should use the second wave count below.

Second Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

If we see the movement within minuette wave (ii) differently, it may have been over sooner. This second wave count avoids the problem of a truncated C wave within minuette wave (ii). Downwards movement for the last two days is still a fourth wave correction, but one degree lower.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i.

All subdivisions from the start of subminuette wave iii are seen in the same way for both wave counts, but here only the degree of labeling differs. The key difference within minuette wave (ii) is the downwards piece of movement labeled here submiuette wave c. This second wave count sees it as a five wave structure, and the first wave count sees it as a three. On the five minute chart it fits a little better as a three.

If price moves below 1,384.60 the first wave count would be invalidated. This wave count would remain valid and would be the best explanation I can see.

Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,377.74.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th August, 2013

At the hourly chart level Gold has behaved as expected, continuing lower for a fourth wave correction. The target was 1,401. So far price has reached down to 1,402.63, but it cannot be confirmed that this correction is over. The hourly chart will be shown at the end of this analysis with a brief explanation.

Today I will focus the analysis on the monthly charts, at super cycle degree. I will also compare Gold to Silver.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold – Monthly Chart – Super Cycle Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Monthly - Super Cycle 2013

At super cycle degree for gold it looks like we have either seen the end of a long grand super cycle wave, or are close to the end. The key is the final fifth wave up at super cycle degreeā€“is this structure complete or not? Is the recent downwards movement cycle wave IV within super cycle wave V, or is super cycle wave V over?

The next two monthly charts for gold will look at two possible interpretations for this structure. The wave count with the best fit and best Fibonacci ratios would be the most likely.

In comparison to silver we can see that these two markets do not always turn together. They are close, but not at the same time. Sometimes there is a difference of several months, and in the case of the 1990’s low for both markets gold turned 6 years and 5 months after silver found its low. In the case of the all time high gold turned 5 months after silver.

Silver appears to precede Gold. For this reason I have no problem with two wave counts for these markets that sees Silver having already completed a structure which Gold is yet to see unfold.

Although overall at the monthly chart level these two markets have similar looks, they are not the same. The wave structure must be different if the highs and lows are different.

Silver – Monthly Chart – Super Cycle Wave Count.

Silver Elliott Wave Chart Monthly - Super Cycle 2013

This chart is provided for comparison to the gold chart above. The highs and lows of both markets are highlighted on both charts.

This wave count for silver expects a new low to be formed before gold gets there. Which would fit with what has historically happened.

Screen shot 2013-08-29 at 11.32.19 PM

The table above compares Fibonacci ratios between the main and alternate wave counts for gold within cycle wave V. The main wave count is slightly better. Within the alternate there are no Fibonacci ratios within the middle of the third wave which is highly unusual for this market, and so must reduce the probability of the alternate wave count.

Gold – Main Monthly Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

This will remain my main monthly wave count for gold because it has better Fibonacci ratios, particularly in the middle of the third wave. It is extremely common for gold to have excellent Fibonacci ratios in its third waves.

This wave count is adjusted from my last published analysis of the monthly chart. I have moved cycle waves I and II up. Previously, they were in the position where intermediate waves (3) and (4) now occupy, within primary wave 5 of cycle wave I. This change gives better proportion to cycle wave II.

With this labeling when we draw a channel about the upwards impulse using Elliott’s first technique cycle wave IV has strongly overshot the channel. Sometimes fourth waves do this and when they do we redraw the channel using Elliott’s second technique, and this is how I’ve drawn it. With this there is an overshoot for the end of cycle wave III which is very common.

If cycle wave V upwards has just begun, it should last about a year or longer. At 1,961 cycle wave V would reach equality in length with cycle wave I.

Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory. This wave count would be invalidated with movement below 1,032.70.

Gold – Alternate Monthly Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Monthly Alternate 2013

Alternatively, it is possible that a grand super cycle wave I is complete and this recent downwards movement is the start of a grand super cycle wave II.

At this stage, because the first part of the correction subdivides into a three wave structure, the correction may be a flat or double, both of which allow for new price extremes above 1,921.15 (a new all time high). A flat would expect upwards movement from here to subdivide as a three for cycle wave b which must reach a minimum of 90% the length of cycle wave a at 1,847 or above.

Alternatively, it may be that cycle wave a is an incomplete impulse. If that is the case then upwards movement which began on 28th June, 2013, would be a fourth wave correction at primary wave degree. It may not move into what would be primary wave 1 price territory (labeled here as primary wave A) above 1,522.75.

Movement above 1,522.75 would confirm the downwards correction as a completed three wave structure. At that stage I would have confidence that price should keep rising to about 1,847 or above and may make new highs.

In the mid to long term this alternate wave count does not diverge from the main wave count. Close attention to the structure of the next wave upwards is required to determine which of these two monthly wave counts is correct; if it is a three wave corrective structure this alternate is correct, and if it is a five wave motive structure the main wave count is correct.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This hourly chart follows on directly from yesterday’s analysis.

Within minuette wave (iv) the structure may be complete, but it is also equally as likely that subminuette wave y may be an incomplete triangle.

Movement above the small parallel channel containing minuette wave (iv) would provide some confidence that minuette wave (iv) is over and minuette wave (v) has begun.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,384.60.

Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th August, 2013

Last analysis of silver was published on 5th May, 2013. It’s time to update this analysis. I will endeavor to update Silver for you once a week, time permitting.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Silver monthly 2013

At the monthly chart level the long rise for silver to the all time high at 49.51 looks like a completed five wave impulse. Because this lasted generations it may be a grand super cycle wave.

No matter what degree downwards movement is labeled, it is a correction and it is incomplete.

The current corrective structure is unfolding as a double zigzag. Primary wave W is a zigzag, and the double is joined by a correction in the opposite direction, a triangle labeled primary wave X. The second structure in the double has begun with a completed five wave structure downwards, and it is also unfolding as a zigzag. This corrective structure at cycle degree is a double zigzag.

The second zigzag of primary wave Y is incomplete.

Silver weekly 2013

Within the first zigzag in the double, primary wave W, intermediate wave (C) is just 0.67 longer than intermediate wave (A).

Primary wave X is a completed regular contracting triangle.

Primary wave Y is incomplete.

Silver daily 2013

Within primary wave Y downwards movement for intermediate wave (A) subdivides nicely into a five wave impulse.

Ratios within intermediate wave (A) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1, and minor wave 3 is just 0.01 short of 0.382 the length of minor wave 3.

Within intermediate wave (B) so far the structure may be unfolding as a zigzag. Minor wave A is an incomplete five wave impulse.

Upwards movement for minute wave iii within minor wave A is showing a strong increase in upwards momentum, indicating a third wave which indicates an impulse for minor wave A.

At 25.44 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

When minute wave iii is complete then minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.613.

If price moves below 20.613 then minor wave A subdivided into a three wave zigzag. At that stage we should expect minor wave B to reach down to at least 90% the length of minor wave A, and to be very likely to make a new low below the start of minor wave A at 18.215. Intermediate wave (B) then may unfold as a flat or combination.