Tag Archives: copper

Trading Room – 22nd March, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at Copper only.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

Copper (Spot)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

US Oil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The first movement downwards from the high on the 13th of February to the low of the 23rd of February was choppy and overlapping and came on overall declining volume. The market fell of its own weight.

The bounce up to the 1st of March came with some increase in volume. The volume profile looks slightly bullish up to this point, but not strongly.

The fall to the last low on the 9th of March came with increasing volume. This looks clearly bearish.

The next bounce to the high of the 20th of March came with clearly declining volume. This looks like a counter trend movement within a new downwards trend.

ADX has not yet indicated a downwards trend. It is below 15 although it is rising slightly today and the -DX line is above the +DX line.

Contracting Bollinger Bands and declining ATR suggest the market is not yet trending.

The most bearish part of this chart is the recent volume profile. Other indicators suggest caution for short positions.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

US Oil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Copper may be in the very early stages of a new downwards trend. The green trend line goes back to August 2011 and has recently provided resistance. After price breached the lower edge of the lilac line, it then turned up to find resistance at that line for a typical throwback.

The gold channel is a base channel about minor waves 1 and 2. The upper edge has provided resistance for another second wave correction. The lower edge may now be providing some support. If this Elliott wave count is correct, then Copper should break below support at the lower edge of this channel. It may then turn upwards for a test of resistance before moving down and away.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

TRADING ROOM SUMMARY TABLES

OPEN POSITIONS

Trading Room Open Positions 2017
Click table to enlarge.

CLOSED POSITIONS

Trading Room Closed Positions March 2017
Click table to enlarge.

RECOMMENDATIONS

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This analysis is published @ 02:07 a.m. EST.

Trading Room – 13th March, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at Copper, US Oil, NGas, USD Index, EURBGP and USDJPY.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

Copper

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Volume supports downwards movement. Copper has broken below support and is now trending down.

Lighter volume for the last upwards session is slightly bearish, as is the long upper wick. On Balance Volume is at resistance.

Two concerns: Price may yet move higher before it turns back down and ATR is still declining.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The invalidation point is not too far away. A small fourth wave correction may be complete.

The next wave down may exhibit some increase in momentum as it’s a fifth wave for a commodity.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

US Oil (WTI Crude – Spot)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USOil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

RSI and Stochastics can remain extreme for reasonable periods of time when US Oil trends. Oversold conditions for these two indicators does not necessarily mean a low must be in place.

Very strong volume over the last three days supports downwards movement.

Sometimes after a breakout price curves back to retest prior support or resistance. It is possible here that US Oil may turn up for a test of resistance about 50.70. However, this does not always happen.

HOURLY CHART

USOil Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

While price remains within this channel expect it to continue downwards. If the channel is breached, then a larger bounce may be underway.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USOil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A larger flat correction may be unfolding for a fourth wave (EWG members should refer to the US Oil monthly chart for the bigger picture here). Within a flat correction, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

Natural Gas

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NGas Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

It is concerning that the Magee trend line is breached.

The last three daily candlesticks complete stalled pattern. The longer upper wick on the last candlestick is bearish. Declining volume for the last two upwards days is bearish.

On Balance Volume is bullish in that it is making strong new highs with price. There is some bearish divergence as noted.

Overall, it does look like this is a counter trend movement. But there is no indication it is over at this stage, so it may move higher.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

NGas Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The fourth wave is now very close to first wave price territory. If this portion of the wave count is correct, then there is very little room for NGas to move into. The target expects a long strong extended fifth wave, typical of commodities.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

USD Index

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD Index Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

If there is a resumption of the larger upwards trend, then this next wave up is in its very early stages. In the short term, it looks like USD Index has made a relatively deep correction. Support is about 100.60. If price can break above resistance at 103, then next resistance is about 103.50.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USD Index Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The structure of primary wave 5 is still incomplete. If the current correction moves lower, it should find support at the lower edge of the trend channel. If that trend channel is breached, then the wave count would be in doubt.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

EURGBP

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURGBP Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

It looks like EURGBP is currently at resistance and may move into a small consolidation for a few days. This may bring Stochastics down from overbought. Price may find support about 0.8635.

It looks like there is a new upwards trend beginning.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

EURGBP Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The upwards movement should unfold as a three wave structure, so there should be downwards movement for minor wave B within it. If the target is wrong, it may be too low.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

USDJPY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This pair has proven tricky to find an entry. It is currently in a consolidation with resistance about 115.55 and support about 111.55.

The short term Fibonacci 13 day moving average has just crossed above the mid term Fibonacci 55 day moving average giving a bullish crossover.

RSI is not extreme. Stochastics is extreme, but this may remain extreme for long periods of time when this market trends.

VOLUME ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume for the last three upwards days showed an increase to support the rise in price. The long upper wick on the last daily candlestick is bearish.

On Balance Volume is squeezed. A break above the purple resistance line would be a reasonable bullish signal. A break below the yellow support line would be a weak bearish signal.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USDJPY Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The structure of cycle wave III is still incomplete. The fifth wave up needs to unfold.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

TRADING ROOM SUMMARY TABLE

New to Trading Room is a simplified table to summarise Trading Room. (Thanks to our member Dreamer for the idea.)

Subsequent posts will add a separate table for Open Positions and when applicable a third table for Closed Positions.

[Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

 

This analysis is published @ 03:20 a.m. EST.

Trading Room – 28th February, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at Copper, USD Index and DAX.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

Copper

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This analysis is overall neutral, neither bullish nor bearish. ADX is now declining after reaching extreme. Divergence with price and RSI (red lines) is bearish. Either a larger consolidation or a trend change is a reasonable expectation at this time, but no trend change has yet been indicated.

Volume is so far inconclusive. Sometimes at the beginning of a bear move volume can be light as the market falls of its own weight. However, light and declining volume does not support the fall in price so far.

TREND LINE ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The long term green line was perfectly touched just three weeks ago. This may provide strong resistance. The lilac line has now been breached (this is seen more clearly on the chart below). However, this lilac line is too steep for reasonable technical significance. That is the risk at this time with this analysis.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The lilac line has been breached and price has now turned up to find resistance there. If the green line holds, then this lilac line should too.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

USD Index

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD Index Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This market so far is moving upwards as has been expected. I am publishing this chart again today because at this time it may be offering a good opportunity to join a trend in the relatively early stages.

ADX is below 15, so no trend is yet indicated. ATR is still declining. These two indicators together signal caution about a potential upwards trend.

RSI is neutral. MACD and Bollinger Bands are bullish.

I particularly want to draw attention to the long lower wicks of the last three daily candlesticks. These are bullish.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USD Index Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This chart is the same as the last published daily Elliott wave chart for USD Index with the exception of the short term support line which is slightly redrawn. Notice the long lower wicks on the last three daily candlesticks and how they all sit neatly on the trend line.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

DAX

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAX Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Analysis of DAX is presented in response to a reader’s request and not because it offers a good opportunity at this time.

Some larger sideways consolidation or a deeper pullback here is a reasonable conclusion after ADX reached extreme and RSI exhibited double bearish divergence over a reasonable period of time. At this time, it looks like DAX is in a consolidation with an upwards bias. The risk here is a deeper pullback may develop.

VOLUME ANALYSIS

DAX Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

StockCharts do not offer volume data for international indices. This is FXCM volume data.

Watch On Balance Volume closely over coming days. If it breaks out of the current range, that may precede the next direction for price.

Strongest volume of recent days is for downwards days. This is bearish.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

DAX Chart Quarterly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A Super Cycle fifth wave may be completing. Super Cycle (IV) may have been a large contracting triangle, or it may have been a more brief zigzag (alternate weekly chart below).

MONTHLY CHART

DAX Chart Monthly 2017
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The triangle fits, but it is not supported by MACD hovering about zero. This is not a requirement but does add confidence when it occurs.

WEEKLY CHART

DAX Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The weekly chart shows all of Super Cycle wave (V) to date. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 10,488.

DAILY CHART

DAX Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A correction for intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 10,807. Intermediate wave (3) may be over. This is supported by classic technical analysis. A deeper pullback may occur here, maybe to the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio about 11,527. That would see intermediate wave (4) end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree.

It is my conclusion at this time that DAX does not offer a good trading opportunity. The upwards trend looks stretched at this time, so a pullback may occur. If it does, then at its end it may offer an opportunity to join the upwards trend.

ALTERNATE MONTHLY CHART

DAX Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The conclusion for the short term may be the same even if the triangle is wrong. Cycle wave IV may have been a quicker zigzag. Cycle wave V may still be within the final fifth wave up. The daily chart would be the same for this idea.

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

This analysis is published @ 01:12 a.m. EST on 1st March, 2017.