Tag Archives: crude oil

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th September, 2013

Last analysis expected Oil to move higher for a final fifth wave. This is not what happened. Price moved sideways then lower to breach the invalidation point on the hourly chart. The daily chart remains valid.

The wave count remains mostly the same. A final fifth wave upwards is still required to complete this structure.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

Cycle wave b is incomplete, and is unfolding as a double zigzag. Primary wave X within it was a contracting triangle.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change, and this may be where primary wave Y ends.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles. A more reliable way to calculate a target for this to end is using the ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C) within the second zigzag of the double.

At 122.55 intermediate wave (C) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 120.84 minor wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

The trend lines for the contracting triangle shown on the monthly chart will cross over in 2 or 3 days time. The trend lines are shown at the bottom of this chart. Place an extended vertical line at this point and look for a trend change at that time. Be very careful to draw the triangle trend lines accurately from A to C and B to D of the triangle, as shown on the monthly chart.

Within the ending diagonal for minor wave 5, minute wave iv may not move below 103.51.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minute wave iv may have continued further sideways as a contracting triangle. Minuette wave (c) within the zigzag of minute wave iv breached the last invalidation point on last analysis hourly chart, which had expected minute wave iv to be over already.

Within the ending diagonal of minor wave 5 minute wave iv is most likely to be at least as long as minute wave iii because the diagonal is expanding. It is most likely upwards movement will move above 113.76.

Minute wave v must unfold as a zigzag. Within the zigzag minuette wave (b) may not move below the start of minuette wave (a). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 104.96.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th September, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected upwards movement in a zigzag structure which is what has happened. The upwards zigzag is incomplete.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Cycle wave b is incomplete, and is unfolding as a double zigzag. Primary wave X within it was a contracting triangle.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change, and this may be where primary wave Y ends.

There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles. A more reliable way to calculate a target for this to end is using the ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C) within the second zigzag of the double.

At 122.55 intermediate wave (C) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 120.84 minor wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

Within the ending diagonal for minor wave 5, minute wave iv may not move below 103.51.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minor wave 5 is most likely unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal which is incomplete.

Within the diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide into zigzags, including the third wave. The fourth wave of a diagonal should overlap back into first wave price territory, but may not move beyond the end of the second wave.

Minute wave iii is longer than minute wave i, and minute wave iv is longer than minute wave ii. The diagonal is expanding. This would expect minute wave v to be longer than equality with minute wave iii which would be achieved at 114.27. We should expect upwards movement to reach this point at least.

I have seen diagonals sometimes have a third wave which is still the longest, so this minimum is a guideline with a good probability but if it is not reached, as long as the subdivisions are correct, the diagonal may still be valid.

Within the final upwards zigzag for minute wave v the structure is incomplete. Within it minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 105.51.

If price does move below 105.51 then it may be possible (but at this stage unlikely) that minute wave iv is continuing. The invalidation point moves down to 103.51.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th September, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement from US Oil, which is not what happened. Price has moved lower to breach the invalidation point at 108.17 on the daily chart.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Cycle wave b is incomplete, and is unfolding as a double zigzag. Primary wave X within it was a contracting triangle.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change, and this may be where primary wave Y ends.

There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles. A more reliable way to calculate a target for this to end is using the ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C) within the second zigzag of the double.

At 122.55 intermediate wave (C) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 120.84 minor wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

There are two structural possibilities for minor wave 5: either an impulse or an ending diagonal. The impulse was invalidated with movement below 108.17. Minor wave 5 is most likely unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal.

Within the diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide into zigzags, including the third wave. The fourth wave of a diagonal should overlap back into first wave price territory, but may not move beyond the end of the second wave. Minute wave iv may not move below 103.51.

Within minute wave i zigzag there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves (a) and (c).

Within minute wave ii zigzag there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves (a) and (c).

Within minute wave iii zigzag minuette wave (c) is 0.47 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Within minute wave iv zigzag minuette wave (c) is 0.27 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Minute wave iii is longer than minute wave i, and minute wave iv is longer than minute wave ii. The diagonal is expanding. This would expect minute wave v to be longer than equality with minute wave iii which would be achieved at 114.27. We should expect upwards movement to reach this point at least.

I have seen diagonals sometimes have a third wave which is still the longest, so this minimum is a guideline with a good probability but if it is not reached, as long as the subdivisions are correct, the diagonal may still be valid.

US Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th August, 2013

Movement above 110.56 has invalidated the main monthly wave count and confirmed the alternate. This upwards movement is not yet over.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil monthly 2013

Movement above 110.56 has confirmed this wave count.

Cycle wave b is not over and is completing a double zigzag, with primary wave X within it a contracting triangle.

I have adjusted the wave count within the triangle of primary wave X. It now fits nicely within the triangle trend lines and has a more typical look. Intermediate wave (E) undershoots the A-C trend line.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change, this may be where primary wave Y ends.

We should expect a continuation of upwards movement from oil for some weeks yet. There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

US Oil daily 2013

Within cycle wave Y intermediate wave (A) is a completed five wave impulse, intermediate wave (B) is a completed regular flat correction, and intermediate wave (C) is an incomplete impulse.

At 122.55 intermediate wave (C) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 120.84 minor wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3 is 0.95 longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

The structure within minor wave 5 is incomplete. It requires further upwards movement.

US Oil hourly 2013

Within minute wave iii the structure is incomplete. The middle of the third wave is nearing its end. Minuette wave (iii) is so far 0.17 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). It may not be over there though. It should be over soon, and when it is minuette wave (iv) should move price lower in very choppy overlapping movement.

Minuette wave (ii) was a relatively shallow 47% zigzag correction. Given the guideline of alternation we may expect minuette wave (iv) to be relatively deep. Minuette wave (iv) is likely to end within the price range of the fourth wave of one lesser degree, between 109.32 and 108.64.

When it is complete the upwards trend should resume.

At 119.03 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

If minuette wave (iii) moves higher then redraw the channel. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy upon the low of minuette wave (ii). Expect minuette wave (iv) may find support at the lower edge of this channel.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 107.35.