Tag Archives: elliott wave analysis

Trading Room – 22nd March, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at Copper only.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

Copper (Spot)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

US Oil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The first movement downwards from the high on the 13th of February to the low of the 23rd of February was choppy and overlapping and came on overall declining volume. The market fell of its own weight.

The bounce up to the 1st of March came with some increase in volume. The volume profile looks slightly bullish up to this point, but not strongly.

The fall to the last low on the 9th of March came with increasing volume. This looks clearly bearish.

The next bounce to the high of the 20th of March came with clearly declining volume. This looks like a counter trend movement within a new downwards trend.

ADX has not yet indicated a downwards trend. It is below 15 although it is rising slightly today and the -DX line is above the +DX line.

Contracting Bollinger Bands and declining ATR suggest the market is not yet trending.

The most bearish part of this chart is the recent volume profile. Other indicators suggest caution for short positions.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

US Oil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Copper may be in the very early stages of a new downwards trend. The green trend line goes back to August 2011 and has recently provided resistance. After price breached the lower edge of the lilac line, it then turned up to find resistance at that line for a typical throwback.

The gold channel is a base channel about minor waves 1 and 2. The upper edge has provided resistance for another second wave correction. The lower edge may now be providing some support. If this Elliott wave count is correct, then Copper should break below support at the lower edge of this channel. It may then turn upwards for a test of resistance before moving down and away.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

TRADING ROOM SUMMARY TABLES

OPEN POSITIONS

Trading Room Open Positions 2017
Click table to enlarge.

CLOSED POSITIONS

Trading Room Closed Positions March 2017
Click table to enlarge.

RECOMMENDATIONS

[Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

 

This analysis is published @ 02:07 a.m. EST.

Trading Room – 20th March, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at US Oil only.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

US Oil (WTI Crude – Spot)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

US Oil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

US Oil is in a clear downwards trend that is not yet extreme. There will be corrections along the way; price does not move in a straight line. Corrections within a trend present an opportunity to join the trend. The challenge is to find when the correction is over.

Price was previously range bound for a long period of time with support about 51.22 to 50.70. On the 8th of March price broke below support on a strong downwards day with strong volume. This was a classic downwards breakout.

It looks now like Oil is in a small correction, curving up to find resistance at prior support about 50.70.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

US Oil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A larger flat correction may be unfolding for a fourth wave (EWG members should refer to the US Oil monthly chart for the bigger picture here). Within a flat correction, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

TRADING ROOM SUMMARY TABLES

OPEN POSITIONS

Trading Room Open Positions 2017
Click table to enlarge.

CLOSED POSITIONS

Trading Room Closed Positions March 2017
Click table to enlarge.

RECOMMENDATIONS

[Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

 

This analysis is published @ 02:16 a.m. EST.

US Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th November, 2013

Last week’s analysis of US Oil expected more downwards movement towards a target at 88.83 to 87.82. Price has moved lower. The structure is incomplete and the target has not yet been reached. The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil daily 2013

The bigger picture sees US Oil in a new downwards trend to last from one to several years. When I can see a clear five wave structure downwards on the daily chart I will have confidence in a trend change at cycle degree. So far the downwards structure for the first wave at minor degree is incomplete, and I cannot say that there is yet a clear five down.

Typical of commodities, the fifth wave is showing an overshoot of the parallel channel. When minute wave v completes minor wave 1 then I would expect upwards movement for several days to a couple of weeks or so for minor wave 2.

The parallel channel drawn here about minor wave 1 is drawn first with a trend line from the lows of minute waves i to iii, then a parallel copy is placed upon the high of minute wave ii. When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then I would have confidence that minor wave 1 is completed and minor wave 2 is underway.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 112.24.

US Oil 2 hourly 2013

This two hourly chart shows the end of minor wave 1. There is now divergence between MACD and price; as price moves lower MACD moves higher. I would expect divergence to continue between the end of minuette waves (iii) and (v) to come.

Minuette wave (iv) was a contracting triangle. Minuette wave (v) has begun. Within it a first and second wave are complete.

Draw the parallel channel about the impulse of minute wave v using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minuette waves (ii) (at 103.57) to minuette wave (iv), then place a parallel copy on the low of minuette wave (iii). I will expect downwards movement to find support at the lower edge of this channel, and it may overshoot the channel. Along the way down the upper edge of the channel should provide resistance.

When this channel is clearly breached by subsequent upwards movement that may be a first indication that minor wave 1 in it’s entirety is over and a time consuming deep second wave correction for minor wave 2 may have begun.

At 88.72 minuette wave (v) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

At 88.83 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave iii.

I will expect this target now to be reached within a few days, probably before next week’s analysis.

Within minuette wave (v) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 95.21.