Tag Archives: elliott wave counts NZDUSD

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th November, 2016

Another possible opportunity may be coming up in another week or two for the NZDUSD pair, so it will be watched closely.

Continue reading NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th November, 2016

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th May, 2016

Elliott wave and traditional technical analysis of NZDUSD.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Summary: NZDUSD may be beginning a new downwards trend. The target is 0.49809. Risk is at 0.70532.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

NZDUSD monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary 3 should end when RSI indicates oversold and most likely not before. Currently RSI has returned just above oversold.

Primary 3 would reach 2.618 the length of primary 1 at 0.49809. The structure of primary 3 is incomplete.

The volume profile is no longer clear. During minor wave 3 down, the trend was clearly down and supported by volume. During minor wave 4 upwards, the rise in price was supported by volume but the last upwards month of April shows a decline in volume.

NZDUSD daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 4 may be complete as a double combination: flat – X – zigzag.

The best fit channel about minute wave y is breached and now price is throwing back to the lower trend line. Price may bounce off this line and move lower.

Within minor wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 0.70532.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Price has breached a support line which has been tested at least three times and is long held. Price is turning up to test resistance at the line. It is likely that price would move lower from here.

From the last high on 3rd May as price falls volume rises. The fall in price is supported by volume so far, so it supports a downwards trend.

ADX indicates a downwards trend may be beginning. ATR does not yet agree; it is declining.

On Balance Volume is giving a strong bearish signal with a break below the green line.

Overall, the classic technical analysis picture supports the Elliott wave count.

This analysis is published @ 04:16 a.m. EST on 11th May, 2016.

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th February, 2016

Elliott wave and traditional technical analysis of NZDUSD.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

NZDUSD monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary 3 should end when RSI indicates oversold and most likely not before. Currently RSI has returned just above oversold.

Primary 3 would reach 2.618 the length of primary 1 at 0.49809. The structure of primary 3 is incomplete.

The bigger picture indicates the trend should still be down. The structure is incomplete. So far within primary wave 3 each time price falls volume rises. January again saw a fall in price on increased volume. While the volume profile at the daily chart level is less clear, the monthly chart volume profile is more clear which gives confidence that the larger trend should still be down.

NZDUSD daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor waves 1, 2, 3 and now 4 are complete within intermediate (3). Minor 4 did not complete as a triangle and morphed into a combination. There is perfect alternation with minor waves 2 and 4.

Minute ii has come up to touch the 2-4 trend line. This may present a good opportunity to join the trend at a good price with low risk.

Sometimes the Kiwi exhibits volume spikes at the end of its movements. It did this several times in this chart. This may be because the New Zealand economy is heavily reliant upon dairy which is a commodity, so the currency may have some commodity like behaviours (this is my theory only).

The volume spike today may indicate an end to this upwards movement as price finds strong resistance at the trend line.

With minute ii such a deep time consuming correction, it looks like minor 5 may be extending (another commodity like behaviour). The target for it to complete intermediate wave (3) will remain the same at 0.49809 which would expect a long extension.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

ADX today has turned up to indicate a new upwards trend. This does not support the Elliott wave count.

ATR is increasing, indicating a new trend.

This upwards movement has resolved RSI being oversold. It is not yet overbought. There is room for the market to rise.

As price rises for the last two days volume increases supporting the rise in price. Yet, sometimes the Kiwi exhibits a rise in volume with a rise in price for short term corrections and a volume spike at the end of a correction. This could be happening again (the session for the last daily candlestick may also not have finalised volume data; this spike may not be relied upon as it may disappear when the sessions data is final).

Overall, the regular technical analysis picture does not support the Elliott wave count as much as I would like for confidence. If the dark blue trend line is clearly breached, that would be a warning that the Elliott wave count may be wrong.

The strongest piece of analysis on this chart is the dark blue trend line. It is reasonably shallow and long held. It should offer strong resistance.

This analysis is published @ 05:20 p.m. EST.

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2016

Elliott wave and traditional technical analysis of NZDUSD.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

NZDUSD monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary 3 should end when RSI indicates oversold and most likely not before. Currently RSI has returned just above oversold.

Primary 3 would reach 2.618 the length of primary 1 at 0.49809. The structure of primary 3 is incomplete.

NZDUSD daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Within intermediate wave (3), minor waves 1, 2, and 3 are most likely complete. Minor wave 4 is now seen as an incomplete triangle.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1.

At 0.60604 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Minor waves 2 and 4 exhibit alternation: minor wave 2 was a deeper double zigzag and minor wave 4 is a more shallow triangle.

Minor wave 4 is breaching a channel drawn about this movement using Elliott’s first technique. The channel may be redrawn when the triangle is complete.

The triangle will only remain valid if price remains below the high of minute wave c within it. Minute wave e is most likely to end short of the a-c trend line, and it may not move above the end of minute wave c at 0.68824. If price breaks above this point, then minor wave 4 is morphing into a combination.

The structure of minor wave 4 is incomplete.

To the downside, if minute wave d of the triangle moves lower, then it may not move substantially below the end of minute wave b below 0.64292. A new low below that point would indicate that minor wave 4 is most likely over and the downwards trend has resumed.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

ADX is flattening off in recent days indicating the market is range bound not trending. This supports the Elliott wave count.

ATR agrees. It is flat to declining. This indicator at this time is clearer than ADX. The market is not currently trending.

As price rises, it comes on a decline in volume. As price falls, it comes on a rise in volume. This volume profile is bearish and supports the Elliott wave count in terms of overall expected direction.

When NZDUSD trends it tends to find resistance at the 21 day EMA. Currently, it is whipsawing about this EMA, typical of a consolidating market.

My only concern with the volume profile is volume is not overall declining as price moves sideways. An overall decline in volume would be expected, if a fourth wave triangle is unfolding. I expect surprises may be to the downside for this market at this time because the last fall in price came on an increase in volume.

At the daily chart level, RSI is not oversold.

This analysis is published @ 10:17 p.m. EST.

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st October, 2015

Elliott wave and traditional technical analysis of NZDUSD.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

NZDUSD monthly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary 3 should end when RSI indicates oversold and most likely not before. Currently RSI has returned just above oversold.

Primary 3 would reach 2.618 the length of primary 1 at 0.49809. The structure of primary 3 is incomplete.

NZDUSD daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Within intermediate wave (3), minor waves 1, 2, 3 and now most likely 4 are all complete.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1.

At 0.6184 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1. At 0.60604 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). This gives a rather large 120 pip target zone. When there is more structure within minor wave 5 (specifically when minute waves i through to iv are complete), then the target calculation may be added to at a third degree. At that stage, the goal will be to narrow the target range.

Minor waves 2 and 4 exhibit alternation: minor wave 2 was a deeper double zigzag and minor wave 4 is a more shallow flat.

The channel is drawn using Elliott’s technique. In this instance it appears so far to be working well to show where minor wave 4 has most likely ended. If price throws back to the upper edge of the trend line and finds resistance again about there, then the strength of the line would be reinforced and may then be more reliable.

The invalidation point is the start of minor wave 5 at 0.68977. If minor wave 5 has begun, then no second wave correction within it may move beyond its start. If the invalidation point is breached, the analysis is wrong. It may be minor wave 4 is continuing further.

The invalidation point is close by at this time, although this wave count is not confirmed. If the upper trend line holds, then this wave count indicates potentially a good risk / reward ratio.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

ADX still indicates an upwards trend is intact. The upwards sloping bright aqua blue trend line supporting this last rise in price has not been breached. The bright blue line needs to be breached for more confidence in the Elliott wave count.

ADX tends to be a lagging indicator. By the time it shows a new downwards trend that trend may be about halfway through, if the target is where it may end for a relatively short fifth wave.

The 21 day EMA seems to work reasonably well for the Kiwi. It may assist to show where price finds resistance. The Elliott wave count now expects price to move below the 21 day EMA. If that happens, it would provide further confidence in the wave count.

During the last correction it was a downwards day which has strongest volume. This is some small support for the Elliott wave count which expects a downwards wave to follow.

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd September, 2015

Elliott wave and traditional technical analysis of NZDUSD.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

NZDUSD monthly 2015

Primary 3 should end when RSI indicates oversold and most likely not before. My concern for any sell on NZDUSD at this time is RSI is indicating slightly oversold. This needs to be resolved before I’m prepared to enter another short.

Primary 3 would reach 2.618 the length of primary 1 at 0.49809. The structure of primary 3 is incomplete.

NZDUSD weekly 2015

I think the middle of primary 3 has passed. I expect to see a slowing of momentum. However, sometimes NZDUSD exhibits strong fifth waves (maybe due to the high reliance on Dairy as a commodity for the economy?). Because of this tendency and because there is more downwards movement ahead I’d like to find another entry point for another trade.

At 0.6064 intermediate (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate (1). At 0.6025 minor 5 would reach equality in length with minor 1.

What seems clear at the monthly and weekly chart levels is primary 3 is incomplete.

NZDUSD daily 2015

Price is falling on increased volume. Minor 5 may have begun.

Minor 3 is 92 pips longer than 1.618 the length of minor 1. This is a big difference, but at 7.7% the length of minor 3 it is an acceptable variation.

Minor 2 was a deep 0.8 double zigzag and minor 4 was a very shallow 0.17 flat. There is perfect alternation and reasonable proportion, particularly for NZDUSD which doesn’t always have nice proportions.

The risk is minor 4 may not be over. It may not move into minor 1 price territory above 0.71766. This is way too far away to set a stop. In this next trade I may use the hourly chart to set a stop, and there I prefer a trend line rather than an Elliott wave invalidation point only because it’s usually less risk.

My last trade was exited when the bright aqua blue trend line was breached. That was my exit strategy and it was strictly adhered to.

NZDUSD hourly 2015

Minute ii was very deep. Minuette wave (ii) may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio.

I will wait to see a complete corrective structure upwards before looking for an entry.

If this wave count is correct, then NZDUSD should move higher for a few days in another second wave correction. Once there is some structure within minuette wave (ii) I will draw a channel about it. I will wait for the channel to be breached and then wait for a throwback to the channel.

If at that time RSI oversold at the monthly chart level is resolved, then I may decide to enter another short. If RSI remains oversold I may wait, or I may reduce my position size to reduce risk.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2015

ADX is indicating the resumption of a downwards trend, but this may be skewed by the price shock of 24th August. It would be wise to wait another 8 days until that data falls off ADX before taking ADX as a reliable indicator at this time.

Volume and On Balance volume both support the fall in price over the last seven days. Price remains below the 21 day Exponential Moving Average. The Elliott wave structure is incomplete.

I expect NZDUSD to keep falling, but short term it may move higher in a correction against the trend to resolve RSI overbought at the monthly chart level.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th May, 2015

US Oil continues to behave as expected.

Summary: Upwards movement is very close to completion. The target is at 64.39.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count sees US Oil as within a big super cycle wave (II) zigzag. Cycle wave c is highly likely to move at least slightly below the end of cycle wave a at 32.70 to avoid a truncation. Cycle wave c may end when price touches the lower edge of the big teal channel about this zigzag.

Within cycle wave c, the degree of labelling has been moved up one degree. Cycle wave c is unfolding as an impulse. Within it, primary waves 1, 2, 3 and now almost 4 are complete. This wave count expects primary wave 5 to be extended which is typical for commodities. When primary wave 4 is complete, then a price target for primary wave 5 may be calculated.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 91.76.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 was a deep 0.78 double combination structure. Given the guideline of alternation, primary wave 4 may be expected to be more shallow and most likely a zigzag, flat or triangle. At this stage, it looks like primary wave 4 is unfolding as an expanded flat correction. This provides some structural alternation with the combination of primary wave 2.

Within primary wave 4, intermediate wave (C) has passed 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (A) and the structure is still incomplete. Intermediate wave (C) may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (A). Minor wave degree would be better to calculate a target for this upwards movement to end.

The channel about cycle wave c is drawn here as a best fit. Primary wave 4 may find resistance about the upper edge, and this may be where upwards movement ends.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure, and is unfolding as an impulse.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 1 and 3. This makes it more likely that minor wave 5 will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either minor waves 1 or 3. At 64.39 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. This ratio may be more likely because it does not allow too much of an overshoot of the upper edge of the best fit channel which is copied over here from the weekly chart.

Draw a channel about intermediate wave (C) using Elliott’s first technique. When there is at least one full daily candlestick below the lower edge of this blue channel and not touching the lower blue trend line, that shall provide trend channel confirmation that intermediate wave (C) is over. At that stage, it would be extremely likely that primary wave 4 in its entirety is over and primary wave 5 down would have begun.

In order to reach the target at 64.39, primary wave 4 will have to break through resistance at the upper edge of the downwards sloping maroon channel. Sometimes fourth waves are not contained within these channels. If that happens as expected, then the channel will be redrawn using Elliott’s second technique to show where primary wave 5 down may find support.