Tag Archives: elliott wave counts

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd February, 2017

An upwards day with some increase in volume has broken above resistance.

The main Elliott wave count was invalidated and the alternate Elliott wave count was confirmed.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd February, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2017

Last week expected a pullback for Silver.

Price has so far for the week moved sideways, with a lower high and a lower low.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st February, 2017

Gold is still range bound.

Classic analysis, with a heavy reliance on volume analysis, is used to determine probability of the main versus alternate Elliott wave counts today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st February, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2017

Price is still range bound. On Balance Volume is giving a strong signal about what direction price will break out.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2017

Last week again expected upwards movement for Silver, which is again what has happened.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th February, 2017

Again, price continues to consolidate for US Oil and On Balance Volume may assist to show the breakout direction, so it should be watched carefully.

The Elliott wave counts remain the same.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th February, 2017

Friday’s session moved price lower as expected.

A strong bounce has found resistance right at the lower edge of a trend channel. This also was expected as reasonably likely behaviour from price.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th February, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th February, 2017

Last week expected that upwards movement would continue for Silver. This is exactly what has happened.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th February, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

Price continues to consolidate for US Oil. On Balance Volume may assist to show the breakout direction, so it should be watched carefully.

The Elliott wave counts remain the same.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

Another upwards day fits the second hourly Elliott wave count. Price is now just above the target range, which was 1,219.11 to 1,233.43.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd February, 2017

Two hourly Elliott wave counts look at two possible scenarios for the next session.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd February, 2017

EEM – iShares Emerging Markets Technical and Elliott Wave Analysis – 2nd February, 2017

In response to a member’s request here is an analysis of EEM.

This market may not have sufficient volume for a reliable Elliott wave analysis. For that reason classic technical analysis is presented first and should be given more weight. The Elliott wave analysis may only be used as a rough guideline.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

EEM Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Volume is declining as price is moving higher. This is a cause for concern at least for the short to mid term. Volume should increase for price to keep rising sustainably.

However, it is noted for the indices that in the last few years price has been rising on overall declining volume and this has been sustained for years. That may happen here with EEM.

On Balance Volume is at resistance. A break above the purple line would be a strong bullish signal.

RSI is not extreme and exhibits no divergence with price to indicate weakness.

ADX is increasing, indicating this market is trending. The trend is up. The trend is not extreme. There is plenty of room for this trend to continue.

Horizontal lines are added where price has previously found support and resistance. These lines above may offer resistance and price may consolidate there.

DAILY CHART

EEM Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The last rise to the last high on the 25th of January came with a decline in volume. A following fall in price for three days has found support at the sloping blue line.

There is a trend and it is upwards. The short term Fibonacci 13 day average is above the mid term Fibonacci 55 day average, and both are above the long term 200 day average. All have a positive slope.

ADX indicates a trend and it is not extreme at the daily chart level. There is room for this upwards trend to continue.

RSI has reached overbought though. Looking back over the last four years for this market, it does not remain overbought for long. Price can continue upwards while RSI exhibits divergence and this can persist for up to about a month before price turns. RSI suggests that this trend may become extreme and end within about a month. A larger consolidation or a trend change may occur then.

ATR is declining as price moves higher. This indicates some weakness. Each day bulls are able to push price up by a smaller and smaller amount.

Stochastics is overbought, but this oscillator may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market. It does not yet exhibit divergence with price.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MAIN WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

EEM Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The large wave down labelled super cycle wave (a) looks like a three. This is labelled as a zigzag. There is no Fibonacci ratio between cycle waves a and c within it.

If super cycle wave (a) is a three, then the larger structure may be a flat correction. Within a flat correction, super cycle wave (b) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of super cycle wave (a).

The normal range for super cycle wave (b) within a flat is from 1 to 1.38 times the length of super cycle wave (a). This means super cycle wave (b) may make a new high above 55.83.

Super cycle wave (b) must subdivide as a corrective structure. It looks like it may be a zigzag.

DAILY CHART

EEM Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The structure of cycle wave c may have begun with two overlapping first and second waves.

If a base channel is drawn about primary waves 1 and 2 (not shown), then intermediate wave (2) breaches the lower edge. This market does not behave perfectly according to base channels because they should provide support or resistance for lower degree second waves.

Within intermediate wave (3), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 33.94.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

EEM Monthly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

What if the large downwards wave labelled super cycle wave (a) was not a zigzag? The only other possible structure would be an impulse.

This does not have as clear a look as the main wave count, and for that reason only it is an alternate. However, this market may not have sufficient volume for typical looking Elliott wave structures. Its threes may look like fives and vice versa. Both possibilities should be considered.

If super cycle wave (a) is a five, then super cycle wave (b) may not move beyond its start above 55.83.

Super cycle wave (b) would be very likely to end at least slightly above 50.83, so that cycle wave c is not truncated.

In the short and mid term, both wave counts expect that a zigzag is unfolding upwards for super cycle wave (b).

Both classic analysis and Elliott wave analysis expect more upwards movement for this market.

This analysis is published @ 01:34 p.m. EST.