Price continued lower as the two preferred hourly wave counts expected.
Two hourly Elliott wave counts were provided yesterday. The first hourly wave count is now looking more likely.
This Elliott wave count expects Gold is within a grand super cycle correction.
Upwards movement was expected, but not as much as unfolded.
A new low below 1,221.34 invalidated the alternate hourly Elliott wave count and confirmed the main Elliott wave count.
More sideways movement fits the new main Elliott wave count very well, with some adjustment. The larger Elliott wave structure remains the same, and the target changes by $2.
Upwards movement has clarified the situation. Yesterday’s alternate is now the main Elliott wave count, and I have to discard the other Elliott wave count because it no longer fits on the hourly chart and is invalid.
I had expected a little more upwards movement to 1,185 before price turned down. This is not what happened. Downwards movement does fit the Elliott wave count nicely.
Downwards movement continued as expected, but reached well below the target which was at 1,182. A red candlestick was expected for Friday.
Last Elliott wave analysis expected the new week to begin with a continuation of the current correction. Gold remains in a consolidation phase, as expected.
Price made a new low and we have another red candlestick which was expected, although price has fallen $2.84 short of the upper edge of the target zone.
Movement below 1,291.83 confirmed the alternate wave count and invalidated the main Elliott wave count. By a simple process of elimination I now have just one wave count for you today.
Summary: The target for this downwards movement to end is 1,275 to 1,271. It should be over within the next 24 hours. Thereafter, a new wave upwards should begin which should move above 1,345.22.
Click on charts to enlarge.
The main wave count sees primary wave 4 as an incomplete regular contracting triangle. Primary wave 2 was a deep 68% running flat correction. Primary wave 4 is showing alternation in depth and some alternation in structure.
Within the triangle of primary wave 4 intermediate wave (E) is unfolding as a zigzag: minor wave A is a five wave impulse and minor wave B downwards is an incomplete zigzag.
Because there is a clear triangle within this downwards wave of minor wave B this movement cannot be a new impulse to the downside because a triangle may not be the sole corrective structure in a second wave position. The position of this triangle indicates strongly that intermediate wave (E) is incomplete.
If minor wave B gets down as low as the black (B)-(D) trend line it should find very strong support there. Only a small intra-day overshoot could be contemplated if this wave count is correct. Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A below 1,240.51.
When minor wave B is complete then I can calculate a target upwards for you for minor wave C. Because I do not know where it begins I cannot do that yet for you. Minor wave C is extremely likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of minor wave A at 1,345.22 to avoid a truncation. Intermediate wave (E) at its end is most likely to fall short of the (A)-(C) trend line. The other possibility is it may overshoot the (A)-(C) trend line and if it does that it may then find final resistance at the upper edge of the big maroon channel copied over here from the weekly chart.
Intermediate wave (E) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (C) above 1,392.30.
I can see one alternate possibility today. If primary wave 4 is over at the high labeled minor wave A within intermediate wave (E) then it is possible that primary wave 5 is beginning with a leading diagonal in a first wave position. However, leading diagonals in first wave positions are not very common, and I have never seen a zigzag for a first wave of a leading diagonal which has a triangle in its B wave position. This alternate idea is possible, but I judge it to have a very low probability, maybe as low as 5%. I will only publish this idea if the black (B)-(D) trend line is clearly breached.
The triangle was most likely over at the high labeled minuette wave (e) at 1,303.77. Subsequent movement fits best as a series of first and second waves.
Movements following triangles are most commonly relatively short and brief. At 1,271 minute wave c would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave a. At 1,275 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).
Minuette wave (iii) is 0.30 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
I have drawn two channels on this downwards movement, both using Elliott’s first technique. The green channel about minute wave c is drawn first with a trend line from the ends of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then a parallel copy is placed on the end of minuette wave (ii). I would expect minuette wave (iv), if it continues further, to find resistance at the upper green trend line. When this green channel is clearly breached by upwards movement that shall be earliest indication that minute wave c and so minor wave B in its entirety is over.
Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 1,292.84. When minuette wave (v) downwards is complete then subsequent movement above this point would provide confidence that minute wave c is over because at that point upwards movement may not be just a fourth wave correction within the downwards trend, and so the downwards trend would have to be over.
I would expect minute wave c to end within the next 24 hours.
This analysis is published about 05:38 p.m. EST.
Upwards movement was expected for Friday.
Although the target is close by and the structure is incomplete, I am changing the wave count.