Tag Archives: elliott wave predictions

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th April, 2017

Upwards movement continues and price has remained within the upper half of the channel on the hourly chart, which was expected at this stage.

Trading advice is given to members to manage long positions towards the end of this week.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th April, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th April, 2017

An upwards breakout was again expected, but price remains range bound.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th April, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th March, 2017

Price moved strongly higher exactly as the Elliott wave count expected for a third wave up. Targets remain the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th March, 2017

Price has moved overall higher as expected from the main hourly Elliott wave count in last analysis.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th February, 2017

Another upwards day sees the main and alternate Elliott wave counts switched over.

What is now the alternate Elliott wave count still remains viable. It illustrates the risk today to trading based upon the main Elliott wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

Another upwards day fits the second hourly Elliott wave count. Price is now just above the target range, which was 1,219.11 to 1,233.43.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

Gold has had a trend change. How high this next wave goes and what structure it takes will indicate which Elliott wave count at the monthly chart level may be correct.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st December, 2016

A small inside day fits the preferred expectations for Gold, but all Elliott wave counts still remain valid. Targets remain the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st December, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd November, 2016

The main Elliott wave count was invalidated with a new low below 1,204.05, and the target at 1,203 was inadequate for the alternate Elliott wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd November, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st November, 2016

Last analysis expected upwards movement to begin the new week. So far this is what has happened.

Summary: Upwards movement is expected from here. The target at 1,533 may be met in about six months time. There is divergence with price and Stochastics and RSI indicating bears are exhausted. If this view is wrong today, then Gold may make one final new low to a target at 1,203 before turning. A new high above 1,221.62 would add confidence in a trend change.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The larger structure of primary wave X may be either a double zigzag or a double combination. The second structure in this double for primary wave Y may be either a zigzag (for a double zigzag) or a flat or a triangle (for a double combination).

It is my judgement at this stage that it is more likely primary wave X will be a double zigzag due to the relatively shallow correction of intermediate wave (X). Although intermediate wave (X) is deep at 0.71 the length of intermediate wave (W), this is comfortably less than the 0.9 minimum requirement for a flat correction. Within combinations the X wave is most often very deep and looks like a B wave within a flat.

However, there is no minimum nor maximum requirement for X waves within combinations, so both a double zigzag and double combination must be understood to be possible. A double zigzag is more likely and that is how this analysis shall proceed.

Within the second structure, minor wave A should be a five wave structure. This now looks complete.

Minor wave B found resistance at the lower edge of the wide parallel channel about primary wave X. Minor wave C may now be complete at the hourly chart level. Minor wave C has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A. Intermediate wave (Y) is just 0.02 longer than equality in length with intermediate wave (W).

At 1,533 primary wave Y would reach equality in length with primary wave W.

Primary wave W lasted seven months. Primary wave Y may be expected to be about even in duration.

HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave B completed as a regular contracting triangle. Gold often exhibits surprisingly short waves out of its triangles.

Minor wave C has moved slightly below the end of minor wave A, avoiding a truncation. The structure now looks complete at the hourly chart level.

Within minor wave C, there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v.

Within the new upwards movement, the spike labelled subminuette wave i may disappear from BarChart data tomorrow. It is not noticed on other Gold data feeds.

Intermediate wave (A) should subdivide as a five wave structure if cycle wave a is a double zigzag. Within intermediate wave (A), the upcoming correction for minor wave 2 may not move beyond its start below 1,204.05.

When there is a clear five up on the hourly chart, then more confidence may be had in this wave count.

A new high above 1,221.62 would add confidence. At that stage, the second hourly chart below would be invalidated.

SECOND HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

What if minor wave B was not a triangle but completed as a zigzag? Minor wave C may have begun earlier.

Minor wave C must complete as a five wave structure. It may need on final new low to end minute wave v within it.

Within minor wave C, there is alternation between the zigzag of minute wave ii and the combination of minute wave iv.

At 1,203 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii, so a ratio for minute wave v is likely.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,221.62.

While this wave count is entirely possible, it is judged to have a lower probability than the first hourly chart today.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count expects that the large upwards zigzag from the low of 1,046 in December 2015 to the last high of 1,374 in July 2016 is a complete correction. The trend is still down; Gold is still in a bear market.

If there has been a cycle degree trend change at the high labelled cycle wave b, then the new wave down must begin with a five wave structure. At this stage, there looks to be too much overlapping for an impulse, so a leading diagonal is considered.

Within leading diagonals, sub-waves 2 and 4 must subdivide as zigzags. Sub-waves 1, 3 and 5 are most commonly zigzags but sometimes may also appear to be impulses.

Within this structure, all sub-waves subdivide as zigzags. This wave count meets all Elliott wave rules. This diagonal looks correct.

Primary wave 1 lasted 94 days. Primary wave 2 may initially be expected to last about a Fibonacci 55 or 89 days. It should be a big three wave structure.

At this stage, there is no divergence in expected direction between this alternate and the main wave count. The structure of upwards movement, if it is clearly a three or five, may assist to tell us which wave count is correct in coming weeks. For now this alternate must be judged to have a low probability due to the problems outlined. It is published to consider all possibilities.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Last week completes with a smaller range and a substantial decline in volume. The fall in price is not supported by volume, so it is suspicious. It looks like bears are tired.

Price may find support here about 1,200.

On Balance Volume has come down to almost touch the yellow support line. There is a very little room for more downwards movement. This line should be expected to provide support and assist to halt the fall in price either here or very soon.

RSI is not extreme and does not exhibit divergence with price. There is room still for price to fall further.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A small upwards day with higher high and a higher low has moved price higher. The upper wick of today’s candlestick is relatively long and the real body is small. This is not a strong upwards day. Volume is light; the rise in price today did not have support from volume. This candlestick looks like a small counter trend correction.

Sometimes Gold’s new waves do begin with some hesitancy. However, at this stage, today’s candlestick favours the second hourly chart which expects Gold to make one more slight new low before turning.

There are no support lines at the daily chart level for On Balance Volume to help stop a fall in price here.

There is still mid term divergence between price and RSI and Stochcastics at the two lows of the 7th of October and the 18th of November. This is regular bullish divergence and indicates bears are exhausted.

ADX has slightly increased further today. It still indicates a downwards trend is in place. This is a lagging indicator though as it is based upon a 14 day average.

If there is a downwards trend, then it is showing some signs of weakness; ATR is declining.

Bollinger Bands continue to widen though indicating a trending market.

The Elliott wave count here is indicating a trend change before these indicators. If the main Elliott wave count is wrong, then the second hourly chart may be right and Gold may make one more low before turning.

This analysis is published @ 09:02 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st November, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st November, 2016

The main Elliott wave count expected downwards movement and the alternate expected upwards movement.

A new high above 1,283.63 has favoured what was yesterday’s alternate wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st November, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd September, 2016

Upwards movement was expected for Friday.

Price moved sideways to complete a small inside day and a green candlestick.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd September, 2016

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2016

Downwards movement was expected from yesterday’s analysis.

Summary: While price remains within the narrow pink channel, then assume the short term downwards trend remains intact. If the channel is breached and if price moves above 1,330.01, then assume the upwards trend has most likely returned.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Thereafter, this wave count differs from the two alternates.

This main wave count will expect primary wave 3 to be longer than primary wave 1. Because this is very common, this is the main wave count and it expects the most common scenario is most likely. At 1,582 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1.

Only intermediate wave (1) so far is complete within primary wave 3. Intermediate wave (2) may be close to completion. It may find support at the lower edge of the base channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2. Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.

Minute wave iv should now be complete. A breach of the dark blue channel drawn about intermediate wove (2) would provide trend channel confirmation that intermediate wave (2) is over and intermediate wave (3) is underway.

At this stage, a new high above 1,330.01 could not be a continuation of minute wave iv, so at that stage minute wave iv and minor wave C would have to be over. A new high above 1,330.01 would provide strong confidence in a trend change and the resumption of the prior upwards trend.

At 1,288 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i. If this target is wrong, it may be slightly too high. Price may find strong support at the lower edge of the base channel; this trend line may stop price moving lower.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,200.07.

Primary wave 2 lasted 56 days (one more than a Fibonacci 55). So far intermediate wave (2) is more brief in duration. It has lasted 40 days and may be just one or two days away from completion.

Keep the small narrow pink channel on daily and hourly charts. Draw a channel about intermediate wave (2) using Elliott’s technique for a correction (blue lines). Price is finding support at the lower edge. If this wave count is wrong, then it may be in expecting more downwards movement. The lower edge of this channel may stop price from falling further.

With this wave count expecting a third wave at two large degrees to begin very soon, look out for surprises to the upside at this stage.

HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure.

Within minor wave C, the structure may be still incomplete. Minute wave iv may have been a relatively brief and shallow zigzag exhibiting only alternation in depth with minute wave ii.

At 1,288 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i.

So far, for this main wave count, the structure within minute wave v looks incomplete. There is too much overlapping for the middle of its third wave to have passed. This wave count expects to see another one or two days of downwards movement.

Within minuette wave (iii), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,315.89.

ALTERNATE HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate is new.

It is possible that minute wave iv was over more recently as labelled. There is still only alternation in depth between minute waves ii and iv. Both are zigzags.

Minute wave iv may be very close to completion. It may end when price again touches the lower edge of the dark blue channel. After a final slight new low below the end of minuette wave (iii) at 1,305.32, then intermediate wave (2) could be over.

Thereafter, a breach of the narrow pink channel that contains recent downwards movement would provide some confidence in a trend change. A new high above 1,315.89 would provide first price confidence. A new high above 1,330.01 would provide stronger confidence. At that stage, upwards movement could not be a continuation of minute wave iv, so minute waves iv and v would have to be over.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that primary wave 3 is over and shorter than primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 shows stronger volume than primary wave 1 (see technical analysis weekly chart).

If primary wave 3 is over, then the current consolidation for Gold would be primary wave 4.

Primary wave 2 was a relatively shallow 0.35 expanded flat correction. Primary wave 4 may be unfolding as a deeper zigzag which would exhibit perfect alternation.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,282.68.

Primary wave 5 would be limited to no longer than equality in length with primary wave 3, so that the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met. Primary wave 5 would have a limit of 174.84.

This wave count expects more downwards movement to complete a five wave impulse for intermediate wave (C) in the same way as the main wave count expects a five wave impulse down to complete minor wave C. Only the degree of labelling differs; this wave count is one degree higher.

The hourly charts would be exactly the same except for the degree of labelling.

It is no longer possible for intermediate wave (4) to be a triangle. Within a contracting or barrier triangle, minor wave C may not move beyond the end of minor wave A. If intermediate wave (4) is labelled as a triangle, then minor wave A would be at the low of 1,310.84. The new low today to 1,305.82 invalidates this idea, so this may not be minor wave C.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

A strong downwards week with an increase in volume supports the main and alternate III wave counts. Overall, volume is still declining and price remains range bound.

The prior two green weekly candlesticks had long upper shadows which was bearish.

Price may find some support about 1,310.

On Balance Volume at the end of last week has come down to find support at the purple trend line. This may help to stop price falling much further.

RSI is not extreme. There is some hidden bullish divergence with price and RSI: RSI has made a lower low below the low of 25th of July but price has made a higher low. This indicates some weakness to this downwards movement. It is more likely to be a smaller correction than a sustainable trend.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Price is still range bound and today has reached support. During this range bound period, which began back on 7th of June, it is two upwards days of 8th of July and 26th of August that have strongest volume. This suggests an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. This trick usually (not always) works well for Gold. This supports the Elliott wave counts.

Volume today is slightly stronger than yesterday, but it is still relatively light.

Price should be expected to find strong support about 1,310 to 1,305. This is an area of prior resistance and support.

On Balance Volume may be finding support today at the yellow trend line. A break below this yellow line would be a bearish signal, but only a weak one because this line has recently been weakened. A break above the purple line would be a bullish signal.

RSI is not yet extreme. There is room for price to fall further. There is no divergence today to indicate weakness between price and RSI.

ADX continues to decline indicating the market is not trending. The +DX and -DX lines continue to whipsaw about each other, typical of a consolidating market. ATR continues to agree as it too is declining.

No clear trend is evident. This downwards movement looks like a swing within a larger consolidation.

Stochastics is oversold and exhibits multi day divergence now with price. With price now at support, an end to this downwards swing would be a reasonable expectation. An upwards swing should be expected to begin about here.

Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen for five days in a row. A trend may be about to return.

The shorter term 13 day moving average is pointing downwards and price is below it. The short term trend is down. The mid term 55 day moving average has just turned and is also pointing downwards today. This indicates the mid term trend may have changed to down. The shorter 13 day average has not yet crossed below the mid term 55 day average yet though, so a trend change has not yet been indicated from up to down.

This analysis is published @ 09:32 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2016